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@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@barbarian said in US Politics:
@MajorRage But if they counted the postal votes first, the reverse would be true: Biden would have a lead of 7-800k and then Trump would work that down. It's what happened in Florida (on a slightly smaller scale) but nobody is questioning that...
Rubbish. I'm questioning everything. I'm not closing my mind to there being no substance is Trump's claims.
Trump lead by 10% with 64% of the vote counted. So he was 37/27 up, which means a 57% pro Trump. For Biden to get this back, he needs to be at least 23/13 of the other 36% ... that's 64%, or a change of over 20% in voting patterns.
That's unfathomable.
Nothing is impossible in this pandemic year. Search your mind. The obvious answer is probably the right answer
To requote myself above, the most obvious answer is the one the MSM have been pushing, the one that everybody said would happen, right?
I'm not suspicious that postal votes are more in favour of Biden, not at all. I'm extremely suspicious of the sheer scale of this. It's absolutely insane, and is undoubtedly worthy of deeper dive.
American experts have been writing very recently about the growing no accelerating political gap between city and country so no, it is not that weird to understand.
I assume you have travelled through both the coasts and the rust belt and midwest?
Not the same thing at all. -
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
Can you imagine if the republicans dropped him next time and he ran as an independent
have you noticed some are already splintering?
And fox news really infuriated the Trump camp.
Watch the Murdoch rats jump platforms if they sniff impending collapse.. -
@nostrildamus don jr not helping that, made a couple of jabs about how the trump team have done all this them selves etc
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@pakman said in US Politics:
There is plenty of room for mischief to have occurred in the postal votes.
Lots of stuff on internet out there, probably fake news.
But not beyond wit of man to assume that democrats may have taken a few short cuts here and there.
This may not be over until UK comes out of lockdown!
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@nostrildamus don jr not helping that, made a couple of jabs about how the trump team have done all this them selves etc
I suspect in Republican HQ they see the Trump children as liabilities but perhaps we will never know..
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@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
Can you imagine if the republicans dropped him next time and he ran as an independent
have you noticed some are already splintering?
And fox news really infuriated the Trump camp.
Watch the Murdoch rats jump platforms if they sniff impending collapse..I watched that series on Rupert Murdoch here in oz recently and he apparently wasn't a Trump fan to begin with, but moved over after a bit of time realising Trump was going to beat out every other GOP candidate
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It is quite amazing to me that so many think the Democrats are inherently crooked when Trump associates are considered:
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@nostrildamus however, Yang makes a good point here:
The progressive political parties in Australia are suffering a similar crisis; what makes them any different from the other lot?
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@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
@pakman said in US Politics:
There is plenty of room for mischief to have occurred in the postal votes.
Lots of stuff on internet out there, probably fake news.
But not beyond wit of man to assume that democrats may have taken a few short cuts here and there.
This may not be over until UK comes out of lockdown!
Takes one to know one?
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The sending out ballots to everyone was never a great idea. But not allowing observers to do their thing makes a not ideal situation worse
Newt Gingrich Calls on Attorney General Bill Barr to Arrest Poll Workers – Jaweb “Let’s see. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of them, a lot of them mention partisan observers are permitted to be present when ballots are counted,” Hannity stated. “But we get report after report that they are not being allowed to observe. Is that a violation of law? And how do you remedy that?” “My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what’s going on,” Gingrich fumed. “The Philadelphia machine is corrupt. The Atlanta machine is corrupt. The machine in Detroit is corrupt. And they are trying to steal the presidency. And we should not allow them to do that.” “First of all, under federal law, we should lock up the people who are breaking the law,” he continued. “You stop somebody from being an observer, you just broke federal law. Do you hide and put up papers so nobody can see what you’re doing? You just broke federal law. You bring in ballots that aren’t real? You just broke federal law.”
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@pakman over half a dozen posts about democrats being encouraged to vote by mail - tied into Trump's constant messaging to avoid mail in voting and do it in person. Combined with the record turnout and here we are. Pending whatever investigations and checks and balances are upcoming.
@Winger I wonder if any of those observers refused to wear masks. Given a lot of this is being live streamed hopefully there is some clarity about these allegations soon.
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@NTA Yes, reasonably accurate and they keep refining as they go.
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx is the Pennsylvania election reporting dashboard. According to that, there are 9,091,371 registered voters, of whom 4,229,163 are Democrat, 3,543,158 are Republican and 407,519 are "other". CNN's exit polling for Pennsylvania shows that registered voters are voting for their party at a rate of 90%+, but that independents are voting for Biden by 51%-43%.
The dashboard is updating as reporting continues, but as I write this, there were 3,099,581 mail ballots issued, 2,629,342 (28.9% of registered voters) cast, 2,465,841 counted and 163,501 remaining to count. Of those, 1,702,207 were issued to Democrats, 624,732 for Republicans, 210,946 no affiliation, 80,889 other, 8,051 for Libertarians, 2,517 for Greens.
The biggest county is Philadelphia with 1,129,425 registered voters (12.42% of all registered voters), of whom 857,041 are registered as Democrats and 130,590 as Republicans.
If it is accepted that:
- the largest urban area will fully report last (it's still counting and reporting a few polling stations for election day votes)
- mail-in votes will report later because Pennsylvania counts them after the election day ballots because they take longer (each ballot has to be checked for validity as well as counted)
- mail-in votes make up 28.9% of registered voters (so will be a higher portion of actual votes cast because not all registered voters will have voted)
- registered Democrats voted 90% for Biden according to exit polling
- registered Democrats make up 64.7% of mail in voters and 78.9% of registered Philadelphia voters
To me it follows that a large portion of later votes will go Democrat.
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@Winger said in US Politics:
The sending out ballots to everyone was never a great idea. But not allowing observers to do their thing makes a not ideal situation worse
Newt Gingrich Calls on Attorney General Bill Barr to Arrest Poll Workers – Jaweb “Let’s see. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of them, a lot of them mention partisan observers are permitted to be present when ballots are counted,” Hannity stated. “But we get report after report that they are not being allowed to observe. Is that a violation of law? And how do you remedy that?” “My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what’s going on,” Gingrich fumed. “The Philadelphia machine is corrupt. The Atlanta machine is corrupt. The machine in Detroit is corrupt. And they are trying to steal the presidency. And we should not allow them to do that.” “First of all, under federal law, we should lock up the people who are breaking the law,” he continued. “You stop somebody from being an observer, you just broke federal law. Do you hide and put up papers so nobody can see what you’re doing? You just broke federal law. You bring in ballots that aren’t real? You just broke federal law.”
First, that has been to court and resolved by agreement (electoral officials and both parties agreed that 6ft = 1.83m is appropriate distancing, not anything more than that), and second, if the Democrats were actually cheating, they'd also be turning Senator elections and state legislatures (and probably Governor elections as well) and it would be showing elsewhere in those results. As I said earlier, it would be the most incompetent competence to only target the presidential election (which is the one with the most scrutiny) in a redistricting election (for reference, just as NZ does the electorate review after the census every 5 years, US states do the same after their census which is every decade at the start of the decade - a lot of states have the legislatures do it, which leads to partisan gerrymandering rather than an independent commission like here).
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@Godder said in US Politics:
@Winger said in US Politics:
The sending out ballots to everyone was never a great idea. But not allowing observers to do their thing makes a not ideal situation worse
Newt Gingrich Calls on Attorney General Bill Barr to Arrest Poll Workers – Jaweb “Let’s see. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of them, a lot of them mention partisan observers are permitted to be present when ballots are counted,” Hannity stated. “But we get report after report that they are not being allowed to observe. Is that a violation of law? And how do you remedy that?” “My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what’s going on,” Gingrich fumed. “The Philadelphia machine is corrupt. The Atlanta machine is corrupt. The machine in Detroit is corrupt. And they are trying to steal the presidency. And we should not allow them to do that.” “First of all, under federal law, we should lock up the people who are breaking the law,” he continued. “You stop somebody from being an observer, you just broke federal law. Do you hide and put up papers so nobody can see what you’re doing? You just broke federal law. You bring in ballots that aren’t real? You just broke federal law.”
First, that has been to court and resolved by agreement (electoral officials and both parties agreed that 6ft = 1.83m is appropriate distancing, not anything more than that), and second, if the Democrats were actually cheating, they'd also be turning Senator elections and state legislatures (and probably Governor elections as well) and it would be showing elsewhere in those results. As I said earlier, it would be the most incompetent competence to only target the presidential election (which is the one with the most scrutiny) in a redistricting election (for reference, just as NZ does the electorate review after the census every 5 years, US states do the same after their census which is every decade at the start of the decade - a lot of states have the legislatures do it, which leads to partisan gerrymandering rather than an independent commission like here).
The problem is the counting that occurred without observers. How can this situation be rectified?
And why do this. It creates mistrust. And the reason for observers is obvious. Even without any laws or rules governing this. It surely should never need the courts to be involved -
@NTA said in US Politics:
Fuck yes. I think it is hilarious that he's turned into a giant bitch-baby, quite frankly.
Then don't get in a debate about validity of counting, as your opinions are clouding your judgment of what I'm debating.
@voodoo said in US Politics:
Why don't you question the early leads that Trump had, given the polls?
Biden isn't questioning them. At least, from what I've seen reported.
@NTA said in US Politics:
AP do projections based on analysis and reports from officials, and everyone trusts them.
Can they accurately predict total voter numbers ahead of time?
Do they list percentage won of that total voter number or are they using what has been counted?Because I'm looking at the AP data fed via Google, and they're using all their percentages against counted votes only.
So at any point where a candidate had a 10% lead (counted) in a state with 64% counted, the second place would "only" need 59% of the remaining vote to overtake them on a simple (1 vote) majority.
I don't see your point here. I'm not discussing at any point a 10% counted lead.
@Godder said in US Politics:
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx is the Pennsylvania election reporting dashboard. According to that, there are 9,091,371 registered voters, of whom 4,229,163 are Democrat, 3,543,158 are Republican and 407,519 are "other". CNN's exit polling for Pennsylvania shows that registered voters are voting for their party at a rate of 90%+, but that independents are voting for Biden by 51%-43%.
The dashboard is updating as reporting continues, but as I write this, there were 3,099,581 mail ballots issued, 2,629,342 (28.9% of registered voters) cast, 2,465,841 counted and 163,501 remaining to count. Of those, 1,702,207 were issued to Democrats, 624,732 for Republicans, 210,946 no affiliation, 80,889 other, 8,051 for Libertarians, 2,517 for Greens.
The biggest county is Philadelphia with 1,129,425 registered voters (12.42% of all registered voters), of whom 857,041 are registered as Democrats and 130,590 as Republicans.
If it is accepted that:
- the largest urban area will fully report last (it's still counting and reporting a few polling stations for election day votes)
- mail-in votes will report later because Pennsylvania counts them after the election day ballots because they take longer (each ballot has to be checked for validity as well as counted)
- mail-in votes make up 28.9% of registered voters (so will be a higher portion of actual votes cast because not all registered voters will have voted)
- registered Democrats voted 90% for Biden according to exit polling
- registered Democrats make up 64.7% of mail in voters and 78.9% of registered Philadelphia voters
To me it follows that a large portion of later votes will go Democrat.
Boom, finally. An actual thought out response which demonstrates why the anomaly might be so!
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Mark Landler, [NY TImes] The next few batches of votes to be counted could vault Biden past Trump in pivotal Pennsylvania. That raises a politically fraught question for the TV networks: When do they call the race?
Here is an interesting question - the Hill are already questioning why Nevada hasn't been called yet...
US Politics