Coronavirus - UK
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An important variable missing here is the story that a PCR test tells.
I heard from Sucharit Bakhdi ( whose videos have been removed by YouTubeand twitter- another unexplained curiosity), that pcr tests can detect fragments of the virus genetic material, even dormant already dead and not effective genetic material. That is, people who have already recovered.
Scientists on a vid I posted earlier (below) hypothesise that the virus was in the community months before the first march lockdown. It's just behaved as viruses do from that point: big surge then tapering off as it moves about getting steadily beaten by evolving immune systems. They also surmise that seasons effect Coronavirus the most, not lockdowns.
Perhaps an explanation of how it's too late to replicate a nz style elimination. Also why people don't know they've got it until test results return a positive.
I dunno but some more variables for this murky soup.
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A lockdown could eliminate the virus anywhere if it's strong enough and people comply for long enough.
The issue is that if it has to run for months to work mathematically because of the size of the starting numbers, hard to see how people will sustain it.
Side note, the UK lockdown looks like NZ's level 3. If the R value of that is 0.2, then it would take around 4-5 incubation cycles (i.e. 8-10 weeks) to reduce the current cases of 2.65 million to below 10,000, but obviously that assumes they know of all the current cases, which they probably don't, and that very few will come through the border in that time.
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Fair point. I was more referring to the loons who boarded crowded trains from London when it went into tier 4 and helpfully spread the new variant around the country.
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Ah gotcha. I thought you were talking summer trash to
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Godder and relying on compliance, which this deep in, probably aint gonna work as they hope
For sure, that was partly what I meant by not sustainable.
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I recall Chris Whitty saying testing passengers on arrival is ineffective as it won't pick up those who have been infected on the flight nor poss. those infected just before boarding the flight.
Best option is to quarantine and then test. Unclear how effectively that's being carried out.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
I recall Chris Whitty saying testing passengers on arrival is ineffective as it won't pick up those who have been infected on the flight nor poss. those infected just before boarding the flight.
Best option is to quarantine and then test. Unclear how effectively that's being carried out.
Quarantine is effectively self-policed ie useless as a strategy.
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@sparky said in Coronavirus - UK:
I'm positive I read somewhere last night that 3 day negative test before flying to the UK was going to become mandatory.
But I can't find it now. Maybe I dreamt it. It's all a daze right now after I kept waking up to check on Kane through the night!
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@sparky said in Coronavirus - UK:
I'm positive I read somewhere last night that 3 day negative test before flying to the UK was going to become mandatory.
But I can't find it now. Maybe I dreamt it. It's all a daze right now after I kept waking up to check on Kane through the night!
Sounds like something’s coming. Window dressing at this point.
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@Godder said in Coronavirus - UK:
@sparky said in Coronavirus - UK:
If everyone is in lockdown and arrivals will just go into lockdown anyway, it probably doesn't matter that much, but FFS, talk about not reading the room.
You're still allowed out even in Lockdown - shopping, work.
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@Godder said in Coronavirus - UK:
A lockdown could eliminate the virus anywhere if it's strong enough and people comply for long enough.
The issue is that if it has to run for months to work mathematically because of the size of the starting numbers, hard to see how people will sustain it.
Side note, the UK lockdown looks like NZ's level 3. If the R value of that is 0.2, then it would take around 4-5 incubation cycles (i.e. 8-10 weeks) to reduce the current cases of 2.65 million to below 10,000, but obviously that assumes they know of all the current cases, which they probably don't, and that very few will come through the border in that time.
We'll never know, becuse once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated the measures will be relaxed.
But the mathematical point is correct. For various reasons a lockdown of three months is unviable. The only thing which is is social distancing.
Interesting to think about how one country would cope if no one else had it. Not sure the strategy of printing money would be treated quite so kindly in isolation by forex markets. At some point economics would play a part.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
I recall Chris Whitty saying testing passengers on arrival is ineffective as it won't pick up those who have been infected on the flight nor poss. those infected just before boarding the flight.
Best option is to quarantine and then test. Unclear how effectively that's being carried out.
Also if a country has high infection rate already, letting visitors in isn't likely to make things worse. C.f. Muldoon's famous NZ to Oz comment.
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@Victor-Meldrew yea National here have been calling for testing before people get on a plane, given potential lag of positive results not sure how that works, even if person self isolates for 72 hours post test and then gets on a plane with other potentially infected people.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
For UK ferners, Chris Whitty was extremely good on today's Government briefing. Debunked a few myths.
Media useless as usual, though.
Loved his response to the useless journalist who queried whether vaccinating as many people as possible with a first dose was a sensible strategy:
"Well, it is if you do the basic maths...."
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Victor-Meldrew yea National here have been calling for testing before people get on a plane, given potential lag of positive results not sure how that works, even if person self isolates for 72 hours post test and then gets on a plane with other potentially infected people.
So often in his crisis, what sounds sensible actually isn't all that practical