Coronavirus - Overall
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@catogrande oh yea I dont think INdia is under reporting, I just dont think they could probably keep up due to the sheer numbers for testing the living or dead.
Quite worrying really
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Current surge mostly Mumbai and Delhi at the moment. So national numbers wont look as bad at moment as it will likely get. Unless they can do an Italy/Lombardy first wave and contain it.
I just fear the numbers here. So many people. So little order.
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Thoughts please
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Thoughts please
The mutation rate might be expected to be fairly constant. Most mutations, though, are disastrous and therefore not replicated.
The major variable is the amount of virus in the community. More virus means more mutations and a higher probability that one would be viable.
So do lockdowns lead to more or less virus in the community?
In the early days I’d say much less — that’s the idea. Which means less chance of mutation.
But could also be argued that over longer term getting to level of herd immunity minimises the long term level of virus and lowers chance of ‘successful’ mutations.
My instinct is vaccinate the vulnerable and then let the virus rip in summer. In other words, end lockdown whilst continuing to vaccinate.
That seems to hold for a land locked nation. International travel strikes me as requiring judgement as to which travellers can enter freely , and which need to be quarantined.
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@catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
OK. So according to Worldometers the stats for cases per 1M population and deaths for per 1M population for India and the UK are:
India
Cases 11,396
Deaths 136UK
Cases 64,556
Deaths 1,869I presume those stats are go to whoa.
Right now the numbers for 2021 only are much more relevant.
And increasingly only the last month.
It used to be that being skinny was a big advantage when facing virus. Indian outbreak may suggest that no longer applies.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
OK. So according to Worldometers the stats for cases per 1M population and deaths for per 1M population for India and the UK are:
India
Cases 11,396
Deaths 136UK
Cases 64,556
Deaths 1,869I presume those stats are go to whoa.
Right now the numbers for 2021 only are much more relevant.
And increasingly only the last month.
It used to be that being skinny was a big advantage when facing virus. Indian outbreak may suggest that no longer applies.
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@catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman Definitely on an horrendous trend but a long way to go. However was not really my initial point, which was despite the relative to UK low percentages, their health system is in crisis.
India is not a place to not be wealthy.
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Interesting how low per 100k India's numbers have been so far, and still are at the monet.
Hungary was pre-selected in that graph. So I looked up numbers in worldometers. According to the worldometers chart. Hungary currently has the worst global death rate so far at 2,799 deaths per million after 2 waves (almost). By my maths, if worse case and the entire world was to have Hungary's death rate that would result in 19.5 million deaths?
Not likely though, based on Hungary's population age pyramid compared to global.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
By my maths, if worse case and the entire world was to have Hungary's death rate that would result in 19.5 million deaths?
I haven't checked them but while the number sounds like a lot, that's about 0.26% of the world's population.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
By my maths, if worse case and the entire world was to have Hungary's death rate that would result in 19.5 million deaths?
I haven't checked them but while the number sounds like a lot, that's about 0.26% of the world's population.
Yes. I'm trying to work out if that would particularly stand out even in the annual global death rate fluctuations. (Even if assuming no displacement)
2020, pandemic year, had a 0.440% 'worse' death rate than the year before. But that year (2019) also had a 0.440% 'worse' death rate than the year before that. So, no it wouldn't.
But. The last 2 and a bit years is the first time in 70 years that global death rates have gotten worse. But looks like they've been projected to get worse anyway on UN projections (I assume global ageing)
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@rapido I remember reading somewhere and for the life of me I can't recall where, but this generation of Americans is the first in a very long time (ever?) to have a lower age expectancy than the one previous. Something to do with obesity and opiates.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@rapido I remember reading somewhere and for the life of me I can't recall where, but this generation of Americans is the first in a very long time (ever?) to have a lower age expectancy than the one previous. Something to do with obesity and opiates.
i have read the same stat actually.
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Going by this site. Currently in 2020 / 2021 - the expected global death rate for all causes is 7.645 deaths per 1000.
Taking Hungary's covid numbers. 2799 per million. My maths that is 2.799 per 1000.
So that would actually be quite a huge increase percentage wise of 25% increase in death rate.
Obviously. There will be displacement of other deaths. And, as stated Hungary's age pyramid, which is typical of western / first world. But not developing world.
I have no idea about Hungary's obesity rates etc. Then there is population density, health services, wealth etc etc
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@rapido I remember reading somewhere and for the life of me I can't recall where, but this generation of Americans is the first in a very long time (ever?) to have a lower age expectancy than the one previous. Something to do with obesity and opiates.
Thats amazing and so sad. And quite extraordinary with medical advances made, you wouldn't have thought it possible
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@rapido I remember reading somewhere and for the life of me I can't recall where, but this generation of Americans is the first in a very long time (ever?) to have a lower age expectancy than the one previous. Something to do with obesity and opiates.
Thats amazing and so sad. And quite extraordinary with medical advances made, you wouldn't have thought it possible
The industrialisation and corporatisation of food helped regukar Americans value quantity and price. They are literally eating themselves to death
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@voodoo I was always staggered by what I saw of obesity in the States. And I was probably in the more glam/health lifestyle ones, but Hawaii really shocked me. First time I also saw a lot of fat Japanese (Americans). Then I noticed the typical diet...