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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial I totally understand htat.
I suspect, though, that a court would take a different view. In effect, citizens are being prevented from returning. The legal machinations sail veeery close to the wind.
In the short term, people will probably accept that. In the medium term, though, where the Government controls access to MIQ (see: James Shaw, America's Cup, Olympians) then it becomes hard to argue that every citizen actually has the right to return.
Like 'freedom of movement' - in the short term restrictions are strongly arguable. In the medium to long term, though, I suspect our courts will start taking a different view. the urgency disappears, and the opportunity to find other measures to respond come with time.
It would certainly be an interesting test. Pretty sure it was tested among various legal gurus and Solicitor General before being implemented but I guess it is down to intent of the Law. They would keep it very quiet but I'd wonder if anyone has actually come in on that basis by simply finding a way to arrive without an MIQ booking.
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@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial I totally understand htat.
I suspect, though, that a court would take a different view. In effect, citizens are being prevented from returning. The legal machinations sail veeery close to the wind.
In the short term, people will probably accept that. In the medium term, though, where the Government controls access to MIQ (see: James Shaw, America's Cup, Olympians) then it becomes hard to argue that every citizen actually has the right to return.
Like 'freedom of movement' - in the short term restrictions are strongly arguable. In the medium to long term, though, I suspect our courts will start taking a different view. the urgency disappears, and the opportunity to find other measures to respond come with time.
It would certainly be an interesting test. Pretty sure it was tested among various legal gurus and Solicitor General before being implemented but I guess it is down to intent of the Law. They would keep it very quiet but I'd wonder if anyone has actually come in on that basis by simply finding a way to arrive without an MIQ booking.
Are they allowing boats to dock? Because I think they're turning away boats - but if not, simply sailing into an immigration port would be the answer.
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At the end the question is asked why our 'modelling' is created such huge numbers at odds with real life experience (Ireland). I'd say it is also way at odds to the Danish experience as well.
A prof. says that the assumption variable on vaccine effectiveness if the 'culprit'. Tweak that and the numbers change a lot.
I'm not advocating that we don't press for high rates but do think that those numbers released are extremely pessimistic when you look at other countries. I know we have high rates of respiratory illnesses and diabetes (not sure of the comparisons) but we also have less population density.
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@majorrage You seem to have missed my point.
Delta unquestionably changed the MIQ situation. Before Delta it was possible to get spots in MIQ . Now it is nigh on impossible and a primary reason is economic refugees from Australia which was the point of my post. So when you say Oz apart you ignore what I was saying.
As for your three point wishlist
More acceptable quarantine spaces - You mean more spaces? Which means more hotels? If so government has been trying to expand but there are limited number of suitable places that will work as MIQ and when one is touted locals really get angsty. Was an article about this in press this week. Govt want to open a new MIQ facility in Rotorua but local council and DHB are dead against it
Realistic measures to stop website scrapers snapping up the places and selling them at profits - This was disgusting and just shows that there are always assholes prepared to profit from others misery. I think the new lottery system is designed to prevent this?
Allow people to quarantine at home. - Won't work. Hasn't worked in Singapore. We have enough self entitled pricks breaking the rules here. It is wishing on a star to assume you wouldn't get the same amongst people crossing the border. You could put an ankle bracelet on them but that only tells you where that person is, not whether they are hosting a BBQ. The govt were moving towards trialing something like this until Delta.I really do feel for people in your situation. The only answer is NZ has to get its vax rate up. The govt's not going to relax MIQ until that happens. Of course Cindy being Cindy she'd about turn in a second if it was costing her votes but I'm afraid for your sake it isn't For everyone that wants the border restrictions relaxed there's someone else who would completely close NZ if they had their way.
I am as keen as you are for MIQ restrictions to be relaxed for my own selfish reasons. I hope for all of us that this will start happening for nominated countries by Q2 22. That is what I am being told from people within MoH. The experience with the Aussie bubble has screwed all the planning.
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@gt12 won't work in NZ for reasons I have already said. Kiwi's are nowhere near compliant enough for this to work.
Although I was talking to a colleague in Saigon on Wednesday. They are not allowed out their front door at all at the moment even to grocery shop. Someone in his apartment block was caught trying to sneak out - arrested, no trial - 4 years imprisonment.
That might work...
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@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm not advocating that we don't press for high rates
Yep, totally
but do think that those numbers released are extremely pessimistic when you look at other countries. I know we have high rates of respiratory illnesses and diabetes (not sure of the comparisons) but we also have less population density.
Add 4th highest obesity in the OECD per 2016 data
Sometimes scare tactics are needed, for example - I think March 2020 - the "worst case if we do nothing" Imperial University modelling here basically pushed UK and US into locking down when Alpha started to spread. A rapid pivot by both Governments.
But NZ can use real-world data for modelling now.
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@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@rapido Israel booster shot numbers are f*cking up that graph now?
Maybe.
I've circled roughly where Singapore and Israel both started their booster shot programs.
I think Israel were so far ahead - that they maybe didn't have it approved for young people when they plateaued out. So you've got a mix of boosters, young people, and maybe some of the hesitant taking first shot after delta spread as they opened up.
Singapore 's is much 'cleaner'.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@majorrage You seem to have missed my point.
Delta unquestionably changed the MIQ situation. Before Delta it was possible to get spots in MIQ . Now it is nigh on impossible and a primary reason is economic refugees from Australia which was the point of my post. So when you say Oz apart you ignore what I was saying.
No, I don't agree with your point. You may be right, you may be wrong.
Time is the game changer. Not delta. In 2020 I wasn't in a rush as I did believe others had more pressing needs than I. I personally knew of people that were going in/out of Hong Kong to NZ, doing two way quarantine to attend funerals, see their children etc. I was ok as I thought things would improve with time. I'm now seriously pissed off because over a year later, absolutely nothing has changed. Nothing. I started looking the second Cindy made her stance clear that they would only open corridors with other zero covid countries. That was never sustainable, or going to last long which was known by anybody with half a brain. Thus, I accepted I would have to do quarantine and started looking. And what's happened??
As I've now said probably 250 times oaths thread. Nothing. Absolutely fucking nothing.
As for your three point wishlist
More acceptable quarantine spaces - You mean more spaces? Which means more hotels? If so government has been trying to expand but there are limited number of suitable places that will work as MIQ and when one is touted locals really get angsty. Was an article about this in press this week. Govt want to open a new MIQ facility in Rotorua but local council and DHB are dead against it
Well, so what? Ever thought of thinking outside the box? There' currently thousands of cruise ships doing nothing. I could drive down the coast and see 3 of them anchored off Weymouth right now. Why couldn't they be leased for a fixed term - a year or something, with guaranteed full rooms / catering etc? Has anybody looked into this?
Realistic measures to stop website scrapers snapping up the places and selling them at profits - This was disgusting and just shows that there are always assholes prepared to profit from others misery. I think the new lottery system is designed to prevent this?
I don't know enough but my first (admittedly, cynical) thought is whats to stop scrapers/professional fluffybunnies from being the people in the queue?I could put my name down, whilst some tech nerd could probably fabricate 50 names. Thus 50x more chance of getting it than I.
Allow people to quarantine at home. - Won't work. Hasn't worked in Singapore. We have enough self entitled pricks breaking the rules here. It is wishing on a star to assume you wouldn't get the same amongst people crossing the border. You could put an ankle bracelet on them but that only tells you where that person is, not whether they are hosting a BBQ. The govt were moving towards trialing something like this until Delta.
I do actually agree it won't work to keep the country Covid-zero. But perhaps there are other thinkers out there who could throw some ideas out on how to make it work.
I really do feel for people in your situation. The only answer is NZ has to get its vax rate up. The govt's not going to relax MIQ until that happens. Of course Cindy being Cindy she'd about turn in a second if it was costing her votes but I'm afraid for your sake it isn't For everyone that wants the border restrictions relaxed there's someone else who would completely close NZ if they had their way.
The govt's not going to relax MIQ. Thats the sentence. That's all there is to it. Which is why people like me are getting seriously pissed off with the process as it's designed & it's complete lack of evolution.
I am as keen as you are for MIQ restrictions to be relaxed for my own selfish reasons. I hope for all of us that this will start happening for nominated countries by Q2 22. That is what I am being told from people within MoH. The experience with the Aussie bubble has screwed all the planning.
I can only repeat myself and say that a retarded monkey knew the Aussie bubble couldn't last. Zero-covid is not a sustainable plan and either Cindy is the last to realise that, or she believes her voting public don't care. And she may be right.
To be honest now, I'm kind of just repeating myself and getting wound up. Don't take anything I'm saying personally, none of it is meant that way.
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@snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Before Delta it was possible to get spots in MIQ .
No it wasn't.
I tried for weeks to get a place for my wife after her mother died. Just wasn't possible. That was pre Delta.Welcome back mate 👍
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@snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Before Delta it was possible to get spots in MIQ .
No it wasn't.
I tried for weeks to get a place for my wife after her mother died. Just wasn't possible. That was pre Delta.Also, sports that the government doesn't like couldn't get spots either while others could. Also pre-Delta.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
To be honest now, I'm kind of just repeating myself and getting wound up. Don't take anything I'm saying personally, none of it is meant that way.
I totally understand as it's how I feel too. Take a chill pill or walk away from this thread? (I've thought of doing the latter too but I use a glass of wine instead. Or two
Btw I read the latest Te Punaha Matatini modelling from 23rd Sep that the NZ goverment are using as I hate political spin like you cannot believe.
It's very very light on the border/MIQ indeed, just a "filler" type assumption and "yeah we need to look at this in future". I don't think there is (or has been) a "real world" plan on lowering MIQ to a world with COVID. This is it tbh -
"Key Assumptions - Simulated outbreaks are seeded with an average of 1 case per day arriving at the border and entering the community. This approximately represents a situation where current tight border restrictions are relaxed, but strong border controls remain in place to limit the number of infectious travel-related cases entering the community Results are relatively insensitive to this assumption when 𝑅(effective) >1, but will be sensitive to the border settings and corresponding in flow of infected travellers for scenarios where 𝑅 (effective) <1.
Discussion - Future modelling work will focus on specific public health interventions in more detail, including how these interventions interact with health system and contact tracing system capacity, border controls, and the frequency at which more stringent interventions may be needed. When 𝑅(effective) <1, the health outcomes are more moderate, but do become sensitive to the particular choice of border restrictions. Future work will investigate the relationship between outcomes and border restrictions."
At your service ...
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I don't know if this got linked already, but is a very good article.
This one, plus the articles by Henry Cooke (also on stuff) have been really good.
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@rapido Good to see some real external scrutiny starting - good article that one
fwiw both the Covid Te Punaha Matitini modelling papers I've read say "This paper has not yet undergone formal peer review" which tbh I buy as Covid is a moving picture ... but would be good know how review/challenging they do go through given they're being used to support NZ government policy and public statements.
For example UK have a formal modelling committee which reviews models from four teams (I think) so there is a lot of internal cross-checking and questioning of assumptions used between those models.
Coronavirus - New Zealand