Ukraine
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Since sanctions were applied in 2014, Putin has built a war-chest to guard against financial pressure from the West, the world has changed and economic power has moved rapidly to China/Asia Pacific. He is forging an alliance with China, so will be way less reliant on Western financial pressure, now and in the next few years.
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An interesting 30 minute listen on the current situation:
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@bayimports said in Ukraine:
personally i like this take on the situation lol
Crack troops huh? Will they be handing it out at the border?
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Seems to me Putin wants a legacy, and draw attention away from something and this is an exercise to invade somewhere but it might not be the Ukraine.
NB how meshed is Crimea now with Russia? Have not kept up with it, seems to be a puppet de facto Russian satellite now?Back in history:
(1) the cession of Crimea was a “noble act on the part of the Russian people” to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the “reunification of Ukraine with Russia” (a reference to the Treaty of Pereyaslav signed in 1654 by representatives of the Ukrainian Cossack Hetmanate and Tsar Aleksei I of Muscovy) and to “evince the boundless trust and love the Russian people feel toward the Ukrainian people”;..
Boundless, huh.
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@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Then we're in a dangerous new era and all bets are off I guess.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Then we're in a dangerous new era and all bets are off I guess.
Yeah, just hope that people in the West have woken up and don't sleepwalk into problems. So far, so good and Biden's handled this OK.
Article about Putin's financial muscle. The author's a bit of a drama queen but points out that Putin runs a strong economy, has huge cash reserves and could cut off gas supplies to Europe for 2 years before feeling any pain.
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Can't someone come up with a new play?
Vlad's using one that's been recycled over and over
"ooh, these areas of the Ukraine are actually independent. And it's a bit war-ish there, so i am just sending in some peacekeepers. Absolutely nothing to see here"
fucking super subtle Vlad.
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@mariner4life he doesn't need to be subtle when neither America or the UK will send troops. Germany is so wedded to their gas they're making little noise at all.
Quite frankly the military involvements of the last two decades has surely created an unwillingness to engage in yet another war, this followed up by the wholesale restrictions of the last two years, the focus on partisanship divide, wokeness, race theory in schools, trans rights etc. means we're just not in a mindset to combat Russia and China.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@mariner4life he doesn't need to be subtle when neither America or the UK will send troops. Germany is so wedded to their gas they're making little noise at all.
Quite frankly the military involvements of the last two decades has surely created an unwillingness to engage in yet another war, this followed up by the wholesale restrictions of the last two years, the focus on partisanship divide, wokeness, race theory in schools, trans rights etc. means we're just not in a mindset to combat Russia and China.
i actually thought this morning "the West needs to give him a very short sharp smack on the nose here"
very easy for me to say when i won't have to do the whacking
i don't live in the UkraineBut Russia is very clearly taking the piss because the "West" doesn't want to do this shit any more.
When i read "immediate economic sanctions" i just laughed. Putin (from my outside, ill-informed chair) doesn't give a fuck. He'll be fine. His people will suffer, but they are used to it, and it's super easy to point the finger that it's all the fault of the West.
Rinse and repeat.
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@frank well the Ukranian Leader is not afraid...but needs his mates to stand alongside him
"We are not afraid", he declares, adding that his country is waiting for clear and effective steps of support from its international partners.
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There will be no winners out of this regardless of any result.
Living in "the west", it all obviously reads to me that Putin is not happy with the level of respect being given to Russia & doesn't like Ukraine potentially being part of Nato. Think's he weakens Russia it basically, him.
If you listen to his speech last night, it does actually help to understand his point of view. I think he's a bit deluded, but must remember that I can only make my own views on what I read, which is the same as Russians. Since Covid, I no longer hold the view that any media, Russian or otherwise, can be viewed as a source of fact. IT does appear that Putin views Ukraine as part of Russia and is simply looking to take it back.
However, having read this morning that Dianne Abbot views the whole thing as Nato's fault, then I must conclude that Nato are without fault.
God help us all. This planet really is totally fucked.
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I'm not surprised that Putin wants a sphere of influence around Russia, and if Ukraine won't play ball as he demands, he'll take what he wants.
At the end of the day, no-one is going to go to war with him over the Ukraine.
He always wanted to rebuild the old USSR, and he's doing it one small piece at a time