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@JC He has spoken
The crude reserves (spr’s) were released by Biden to try and dampen inflation. It doesn’t work as Cindy will find out, because the demand is real in a post covid recovery situation.
There is no real shortage of crude oil, the Russians are just having to send it outside of Europe. India is a big buyer and that just means more North Sea and Arab crudes come to Europe. We are running North Sea instead of Urals. The products are similarly balanced, albeit a bit of a shortage of diesel, but it’s already priced in to the market.
This is more to do with market structure being in backwardation (which makes it unprofitable to have oil in storage) than the war/sanctions.
The real shortage/problem is gas. LNG is trapped in Russia and Europe is scrambling to find alternative supply (mostly from the US), but global heating/electricity prices are roofing and will continue to do so.
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@Frank sounds like a Democrat and North-easterner. No reasonable solutions just bend over and grab your ankles and take your medicine. Or buy an electric car if you can afford it. This is why they will lose big in November.
PS. I love meat so stick your lentils up your ass.
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@Catogrande said in Inflation:
Good time to invest in commodities.
Was. Was a good time to invest in commodities. The best money has most probably already been made. May still be scope for some more uplift though.
I think everyone bar commodity companies and shareholders hope you are right.
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can one of you smart financy, macro-economicy people explain to me
will the reserve banks doing the only thing they seem to do, ie raise interest rates, actually achieve what they are hoping, and reign in inflation?
The shit that costs more is the shit people need to fucking live. Insurance, fuel, food, housing. Is the thinking that they can stop demand by making the choice between a place to live or food to eat?
Isn't this surge caused by supply issues as much if not more than demand?Is this fighting new wars with old weapons?
Or am i, like usual, ,missing something blatantly obvious?
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@mariner4life said in Inflation:
Isn't this surge caused by supply issues as much if not more than demand?
I think that is a LOT to do with it.
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@mariner4life said in Inflation:
Isn't this surge caused by supply issues as much if not more than demand?
I think that is a LOT to do with it.
I also think fixing supply issues can't be done quickly and isn't sexy enough for vote-for-me politicians.
We have a major energy issue here in the UK and prices have rocketed 150%+ in the last year. Much of this is down to imported energy costs but also a lack of investment in electricity generation - particularly nuclear. 15-20 years ago, stopping nuclear power plant building and whacking the electricity industry with windfall taxes to fund income tax cuts was a real vote-winner.
Pity no-one looked beyond the short term and realised it was piling up future problems. But, hey, we can always borrow £300 for every person in the country every few months or so until the crisis ends...
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@mariner4life Inflation ex-energy was mostly due to excess demand, as people stayed home and got given free money during the pandemic, which they largely spent on stuff, which then got snarled up in supply chains due to lockdowns. This part can be fixed by raising rates.
The energy cost inflation, which hurts the most esp. poorer people, is due to decades of underinvestment in critical fossil fuel capacity, misallocation of capital to ESG, shutting down of nuclear projects, and general pandering by scientifically illiterate politicians to the public by way of conning them that solar panels and wind farms can solve all climate/energy problems, which they cannot. Raising rates doesn't help here. Nothing can, really, in the short term.
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Reserve bank is saying inflation is 50 50. 50% supply chain war overseas stuff.
So 50% can be reduced through raising rates.
Nz has had crazy house price inflation which has added a lot of demand everywhere.
What I find ridiculous is the reserve bank watched prices go absolutely nuts whilst they sat on on their lvr controls (which should never have been reduced). And now they've completely flipped switch and are just pumping interest rates up after they encouraged a massive debt binge.
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@muddyriver said in Inflation:
What I find ridiculous
Ridiculous, but not surprising. Not sure that Orr will go down as an effective Governor. I think we're seeing what happens when you lose focus on the key objectives, and start paying attention to all the noise - unemployment, politics, non-economic world views, etc. They are all important, but there is a core objective that RBNZ have been slow to address (inflation!)
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@nzzp adding maximum sustainable employment, (whatever that means) to the RBNZ's Policy Targets just ahead of a global pandemic and associated lockdown's didn't help either.
House price inflation supporting a blow out in(already high) household debt has contributed. Everyone wails about the problem but we all want other peoples houses to become more affordable. 50% of NZ's mortgages expire in the next 12 months and will have to be recalculated. That's going to be a world of hurt for a lot of people.
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@nzzp adding maximum sustainable employment, (whatever that means) to the RBNZ's Policy Targets just ahead of a global pandemic and associated lockdown's didn't help either.
House price inflation supporting a blow out in(already high) household debt has contributed. Everyone wails about the problem but we all want other peoples houses to become more affordable. 50% of NZ's mortgages expire in the next 12 months and will have to be recalculated. That's going to be a world of hurt for a lot of people.
are we still seeing the real effects of the stalling of real wage growth in the 90s, the subsequent explosion in household lending pushed by the finance industry to get people to still buy shit? The thing that blew up reasonably spectacularly in 2008. The thing we then tried to fix by dropping interest rates to nothing. And thus beginning the cycle again?
Inflation