Coronavirus - New Zealand



  • @Godder said in Lockdown Check In:

    @booboo apparently GPs have had a massive loss of revenue because alert level 4 means people just aren't going, even though they are allowed to.

    I get that. Have to make appt with Doc to review routine blood tests, and not too keen to sit in waiting room ...



  • GP's and Pharmacies have been given 15mill each (last week) with more to come



  • @dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC The money they are spending now is new borrowing so it hasn't taken money away from any other area of spending.

    they have also borrowed for the recovery which will see additional infrastructure spending

    Finally if people lose jobs and companies go under the economy contracts. The government has taken steps to mitigate both those scenarios. That's supporting the economy surely. But yeah they are running the economy in a way we haven't seen since the early 80's. Hopefully they aren't ruining it as much as Muldoon did.

    The money they are spending now is also through quantitative easing. QE is like a stock split in a company - the company is the same, with the same revenues and assets, but instead of 1m x $10 shares you now have 2m x $5 shares. QE devalues the worth of each unit of productivity in the economy, exactly like inflation does.

    The idea that borrowing is a way out of this is something I'm sceptical about. Even at low interest rates the principal has to be repaid. The net core debt currently stands at $60bn, about 20% of GDP. That's pre-recession GDP, by the way. The already announced debt expansion is $25bn, and the consensus GDP contraction for this year is 10%. So we can expect net core debt to rise to 30% of GDP by year end at a minimum. If the debt growth is $60bn, which has been touted, that will equate to 43% of GDP. Then the doom-mongers estimates of %50 don't seem so fantastic. I don't know how the government intends to repay that using tax revenues from a temporarily crippled economy. But hey, I'm sure Grant and Cindy have economics expertise that outweighs mine.

    Finally if people lose jobs and companies go under the economy contracts. The government has taken steps to mitigate both those scenarios. That's supporting the economy surely.

    This is an interesting point. Some, @Baron-Silas-Greenback for example, would no doubt argue that mitigating the scenario is the least they could do given that they are the ones dictating the conditions that lead to the job losses. You're right, the economy contracts under those circumstances. But it's legitimate to ask if it was necessary in the first place. And it's not sustainable.



  • @JC this may seem a dumb question, but who are the 'borrowing' from?

    Given most Govts. are doing this to try to keep their economies heads above water, they cant all be borrowing from a single entity, is it just a big money go round or is 'borrowing' just making more money?



  • @dogmeat said in Lockdown Check In:

    GP's and Pharmacies have been given 15mill each (last week) with more to come

    So the govt is picking more winners and losers..... work at a pharmacy = winner, work at a butchers = loser.



  • The RBNZ issues Treasury Bonds. Effectively they are promises to repay the face value plus a specified interest amount (called the coupon) at a future specified date. These are tradable in the open market. They are issued by tender, and there is a register of tender counterparties who are allowed to bid. These institutions then sell them on into the retail market.

    Edit: If you have a Kiwisaver account your provider may have some of your portfolio made up of Treasury Bonds. They have lowish returns (especially now) but are considered low risk.



  • @JC nah I think my KS is made up of all the companies losing value worldwide 😞 😉



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback Are you trying to be deliberately obtuse or contrary? If so congratulations.

    Work in an essential industry with no alternative options or work in a non essential industry with options.



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC nah I think my KS is made up of all the companies losing value worldwide 😞 😉

    I prefer not to look at my KS. I'm not going to need it for some time anyway



  • @dogmeat said in Lockdown Check In:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback Are you trying to be deliberately obtuse or contrary? If so congratulations.

    Work in an essential industry with no alternative options or work in a non essential industry with options.

    Are you posing a false dichotomy to prop your weak argument or just being stupid? If so congratulations.



  • @canefan yeah I last looked in late Feb I think, and had lost a wedge, so stopped looking...



  • Leaders of big business that will benefit from a lock down killing off small business competitors n NZ support a lockdown.... shocked.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120912415/coronavirus-how-tindall-morgan-and-fyfe-worked-to-ready-country-for-covid19-fight



  • @JC I don't disagree with anything that you've written which is why I made the point that NZ is in the fortunate position of having had two decades of careful Finance Ministers and had by world standards low govt debt going into the pandemic.

    Don't get me wrong I do think this is going to be very difficult both individually (for all but a few) and collectively, but the 30's demonstrated the folly of cutting costs in times like these.

    In terms of the govt dictating the circumstances that led to the job losses does anyone really think we should have left the borders open and even if we had would tourists have still been coming?

    In terms of the broader impacts - large tranches of the economy should gear up again reasonably well. Countries will still need to buy our food, construction will get a stimulus, but I think the point being missed is that if we had sustained and high death rates a lot of companies wouldn't have suvived that scenario either.

    There's a lot of criticism of actions that the govt has taken, and, despite the view of others I have been no big fan of this govt, however I have yet to see a single alternative option put forward that couldn't be distilled down to leave everything open - we will be OK.

    2nd time today my clumsy fingers have completely changed the meaning of what I meant to type. Apologies @JC



  • @dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC I don't agree with anything that you've written which is why I made the point that NZ is in the fortunate position of having had two decades of careful Finance Ministers and had by world standards low govt debt going into the pandemic.

    Don't get me wrong I do think this is going to be very difficult both individually (for all but a few) and collectively, but the 30's demonstrated the folly of cutting costs in times like these.

    In terms of the govt dictating the circumstances that led to the job losses does anyone really think we should have left the borders open and even if we had would tourists have still been coming?

    In terms of the broader impacts - large tranches of the economy should gear up again reasonably well. Countries will still need to buy our food, construction will get a stimulus, but I think the point being missed is that if we had sustained and high death rates a lot of companies wouldn't have suvived that scenario either.

    There's a lot of criticism of actions that the govt has taken, and, despite the view of others I have been no big fan of this govt, however I have yet to see a single alternative option put forward that couldn't be distilled down to leave everything open - we will be OK.

    Close the borders, All visitors go into a govt controlled quarantine for 14 days. Enforced a lockdown on over 65s and vulnerable people, massive aid package to ramp up support for these people around home deliveries and mental health.
    Leave schools and all businesses open, with hospitality restricted to keep strict logs of all visitor's. Subsidise local tourism ventures whilst also giving aid package to market them to locals



  • The issue is a government choosing what is essential.



  • @Kirwan who should decide if not government?



  • @Kirwan the baron gave an example. Which IMO was ridiculous.

    As soon as you are in a situation where there is a complete lockdown except for essential services then you have to define "essential". It's the govts role to do this. They explained their rationale behind excluding butchers and greengrocers etc. You don't have to accept it but there was a degree of thought behind it.

    Personally I think the govt has allowed too many companies to push the envelope. If we have to have a lockdown I'd prefer it to be short and brutal so that we maximise the opportunity to return to some sort of normality as quickly as possible.

    Of course many would not have enforced the lockdown



  • Wow just 29 cases today, it’s working isn’t it?



  • @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Wow just 29 cases today, it’s working isn’t it?

    Let's keep it up and get the fark on with life on the other side asap



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    All visitors go into a govt controlled quarantine for 14 days.

    this is what is happening from midnight tonight, which should have happend when the rest of NZ went into lockdown.



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Wow just 29 cases today, it’s working isn’t it?

    Let's keep it up and get the fark on with life on the other side asap

    Yup! 2 more weeks of this and we maybe in a place to start the recovery.



  • Expect schools to stay closed given this big rollout of devices, modems and education programs



  • @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Expect schools to stay closed given this big rollout of devices, modems and education programs

    My sister's kids in Melbourne have had their schools closed for all of term 2 with little warning. I hope we don't follow suit



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    All visitors go into a govt controlled quarantine for 14 days.

    this is what is happening from midnight tonight, which should have happend when the rest of NZ went into lockdown.

    Better late than never. It's no time to stuff that up



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Godder said in Lockdown Check In:

    @booboo apparently GPs have had a massive loss of revenue because alert level 4 means people just aren't going, even though they are allowed to.

    Our clinic is suffering this at the moment. The doctors have noticed a severe drop off in traffic because people think they will be swamped with covid19. Actually a good time (if there ever is one) to get non-covid unwell and head to your GMP or A&E

    i had to go to the Doc this week, and i have never, ever seen the practice that empty.



  • @mariner4life chafing?



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Expect schools to stay closed given this big rollout of devices, modems and education programs

    My sister's kids in Melbourne have had their schools closed for all of term 2 with little warning. I hope we don't follow suit

    They announced yesterday that they're doing the same in the ACT. Meanwhile the government is now providing free daycare. Someone explain to me the thought process behind that without pointing out the teacher's union is a cancer on society.



  • @antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Expect schools to stay closed given this big rollout of devices, modems and education programs

    My sister's kids in Melbourne have had their schools closed for all of term 2 with little warning. I hope we don't follow suit

    They announced yesterday that they're doing the same in the ACT. Meanwhile the government is now providing free daycare.

    That makes no sense! Free day care for all? Or just for those kids of essential workers?



  • @Hooroo

    The state government will spend tens of millions of dollars to ensure council-run childcare centres continue to operate for the duration of the coronavirus crisis, as the increase in new cases hit its lowest levels since March 16.

    On Thursday morning, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced the government will spend $82 million to support the 260 council childcare centres not eligible for the federal government's JobKeeper payments.

    "[T]hat means childcare centres run by local governments don't have to worry about the additional cost of keeping staff on and providing the vital services," she said.

    The state government will also make preschool free for parents over the next six months - costing $50 million. It will apply to 700 state-funded community preschools and 38 mobile services that provide care to 45,000 three-to five-year-olds.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/82m-to-keep-nsw-childcare-centres-open-through-coronavirus-pandemic-20200409-p54ih7.html

    Meanwhile in the real world, there were just 39 new cases reported in NSW yesterday, the lowest figure since March 16.



  • @antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo

    The state government will spend tens of millions of dollars to ensure council-run childcare centres continue to operate for the duration of the coronavirus crisis, as the increase in new cases hit its lowest levels since March 16.

    On Thursday morning, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced the government will spend $82 million to support the 260 council childcare centres not eligible for the federal government's JobKeeper payments.

    "[T]hat means childcare centres run by local governments don't have to worry about the additional cost of keeping staff on and providing the vital services," she said.

    The state government will also make preschool free for parents over the next six months - costing $50 million. It will apply to 700 state-funded community preschools and 38 mobile services that provide care to 45,000 three-to five-year-olds.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/82m-to-keep-nsw-childcare-centres-open-through-coronavirus-pandemic-20200409-p54ih7.html

    Meanwhile in the real world, there were just 39 new cases reported in NSW yesterday, the lowest figure since March 16.

    That's incredible. And makes no sense. We want to keep the kids away from each other but we will pay to bring them together....



  • @taniwharugby pharmacies in oz where I am are going gangbusters. Constantly replenishing stock at 3 times the normal rate.
    I deliver their stock.



  • Superb management of the situation by NZ. A genuine chance of smallpoxing the virus. Borders will need to stay shut however, so tourist attractions might need to set realistic prices and encourage NZers to see the attractions. It’s an advantage to be remote islands during a contagious world pandemic.



  • Apr 9, 2020 4:38 PM

    RNZ Live

    The Government is relaxing the lockdown restrictions on golf courses, bowling greens and sport stadiums to allow turf to be maintained.

    The new guidelines - which will come into effect after Easter - come after sporting bodies warned that millions of dollars of damage would be done to grounds without maintenance.

    Nurseries and garden centres will also be allowed to care for their plants.

    Sensible.





  • @Godder No one can be sure what would have happened if we had not taken the measures we had or if we had employed a different strategy, but those Covid numbers are very heartening, and hold the promise of the lockdown not extending any further than 4 weeks



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    That's incredible. And makes no sense. We want to keep the kids away from each other but we will pay to bring them together....

    My understanding is its to ensure the children of essential staff have a place to go.

    Childcare centres were allowed to stay open but would quickly have to shut their doors if they didn't receive Government $$$. The reason being the vast majority of parents would remove their children and their revenue base would dry up.

    So the Government had to step in and prop them up, and ensure critical workers still had a place to park their young kids for the day while they were at work.



  • @canefan The joys of counterfactuals...



  • If I assume that the countries who are most affected by the pandemic will not be exporting right now, and as China comes out of it's own lockdown, are our primary producers in a position to fill a void and profit from what might be a vacuum at the moment?



  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @canefan The joys of counterfactuals...

    All we can look at is the results, and the numbers are good



  • @barbarian said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    That's incredible. And makes no sense. We want to keep the kids away from each other but we will pay to bring them together....

    My understanding is its to ensure the children of essential staff have a place to go.

    Childcare centres were allowed to stay open but would quickly have to shut their doors if they didn't receive Government $$$. The reason being the vast majority of parents would remove their children and their revenue base would dry up.

    So the Government had to step in and prop them up, and ensure critical workers still had a place to park their young kids for the day while they were at work.

    Well that does make sense then


Log in to reply