Ukraine
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WTF is going on with Russia and Ukraine?
Is this WWIII about to hit us?
Am not across this at all.italicised text
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@stockcar86 said in European Politics:
Holy shit, this means that all Nato members will obligated to defend Ukraine from Russia.
Putin must be mad right about now
Exciting times ahead.
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Ukrainian tweet scrambles Biden's press conference
For a few short minutes, it appeared Ukraine was on the path to NATO membership but that was not to be.
For a few short minutes, it appeared Ukraine was on the path to NATO membership but that was not to be.
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I've been abysmal at keeping up with "current events" recently, because... I'm sick of reading the same old shit over and over again. (read: Covid: is it real? Are mandates evil? Is the vaccine a thing? Fucking... blah.)
But... have recently relocated to a place which gets a real newspaper. Made of trees and shit.
And read a story about Russia-v-Ukraine. Not the Winter Olympics, but.. a fuck-load of troops building up.
Apparently, everybody else might have known about this, I don't know.
Next day (or... nek minnut?) - another story about a US carrier being deployed, or handed over to NATO "to see how that goes".
Then a Russian fleet being deployed "for manouvres".
Then UK and Ukranian forces photographed practicing doing military shit.
Then some fella who's apparently a Ukranian "separatist" asking Russia for 30,000 troops to help out his righteous cause.And yeah, I was like you @booboo ... What... The... Fuck.
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Didn't they do this dance in Georgia a few years back?
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Yep
Russia getting bored again
piston wristed gibbons
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It is fucked up for sure
Happy to be told this writer is a loose unit but I found this an interesting read on the situation.
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@booboo I've read a couple of food articles on it. From what I've read it comes down to two major issues:
- Russia is not impressed with the expansion of NATO towards its borders. A gross misjudgment of Clinton.
- Putin's sabre rattling on the Ukraine border keeps a domestic audience looking outward.
While you can never rule out an escalation, Russia stands to lose more than it could gain (think energy exports) and Putin has a history of being a clever fuck.
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personally i like this take on the situation lol
Meet the stunning female soldiers defending Ukraine from Vladimir Putin’s ‘invading’ Russian armies
DON’T let good looks and attractive smiles deceive you – these are crack troops trained to halt Vladimir Putin’s invading army in its tracks. Photographs of the stunning female soldiers defen…
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@bayimports said in Ukraine:
personally i like this take on the situation lol
Meet the stunning female soldiers defending Ukraine from Vladimir Putin’s ‘invading’ Russian armies
DON’T let good looks and attractive smiles deceive you – these are crack troops trained to halt Vladimir Putin’s invading army in its tracks. Photographs of the stunning female soldiers defen…
Thats the way, find the good in every situation
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I've been to Ukraine many times and have lots of friends living there. Nice people, but a complicated and disputed history and lots and lots of guns, for a long time it was absolute economic basket case but the current President and his team are doing a better job on that front. If Putin wants to take action against the country now is the time before Zelenskyy can show his governing model works. I'm laughing at certain journalists claiming to be experts on the country but who know little of its complicated history or politics.
Put simply, the bottom line is this. If Putin bombs Kiev and launches a full invasion it is going to create an absolute shitstorm. I hope he pulls back from that madness and calmer heads and diplomacy can prevail.
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this just keeps getting closer.. Im also curious as to any world reaction, subsequent action.
I wouldn't be surprised if Putin goes through with it and is successful. The what happens next is the big question, does anyone actually do anything except talk? China finally annex Taiwan?
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@bayimports and I want to know if Russia invades and some legit serious sanctions are put in place... what impact on the poor bastards in the occupied parts of Ukraine? Does that just make them double fucked?
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@paekakboyz said in Ukraine:
@bayimports and I want to know if Russia invades and some legit serious sanctions are put in place... what impact on the poor bastards in the occupied parts of Ukraine? Does that just make them double fucked?
I do feel for anyone in the Ukraine right now. I suspect and its a guess, a lot of outrage and some sanctions, but I would be surpised to see anything that would impact Russia to majorly. Tensions across the world are incredibly high and I dont think anyone has the balls to take Putin on.
I also see NZ asked all NZ citizens to leave? I wonder where they will go? not NZ they wont let them in, although the Taliban is quite sympathetic of late.
Ukraine crisis: New Zealanders urged to leave immediately
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The warning comes as fears of a Russian invasion escalate.
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This invasion has been "imminent" for months. Around the same time some particular heads of state have needed to draw attention away from domestic issues not quite going their way.
Of course, if Putin went all in, that would leave Taiwan to fend for itself. The USA couldn't intervene in both regions.
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@antipodean wouldn't that be seen as too brazen and pull in other nations? edit: sorry, thinking that both Russia and China kick things off
I think the USA could intervene in both regions, but not for long. If your point was about picking their battles, I'd totally agree that not engaging one or the other is all about being able to win dominate in the battle they get into.
But they seem pretty well positioned if this is current.
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@paekakboyz I think coordinated regional pressure would be a clever idea, sowing unease and distrust in a key element of the USA's strategic approach, namely alliances.
The USA used to have a two and a half wars doctrine (i.e. the ability to participate in two full blown wars and another regional conflict) which became one and a half doctrine, which became a four region and two conflict model and currently the NDS calls for the ability to deal with two transgressors and three regions.
Either way, history has shown since the end of WW2 that the USA has literally no ability to conduct such a strategy in practice. Look at how long it took to mobilise a force in the Gulf War, how constrained it was dealing with just Iraq and Afghanistan. The capital expenditure invested in fighting the last war (a common problem) shown by its reliance on carrier group diplomacy. Against a modern credible threat like China, that's akin to investing in battleships for WW2 - they were obsolete. Modern anti-ship missiles make them billion dollar disasters.
FWIW (and I could be reading this wrong from very far away) I don't think Europe cares as much as the USA does.
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What's the odds Biden and his govt. are hyping the extent of the threat to give him a badly needed win on something - anything - if Russia decides not to attack?
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
I don't think Europe cares as much as the USA does.
I think it just hasn't faced up to reality - it's like a rabbit in the headlights.
Europe (read EU) has had its head in the sand on Putin's ambitions, the rise of China and its decreasing relevance in the world for years. It's looked for an easy life, happy to shelter behind US military strength and trade-off economic independence for cheap energy from Putin's Russia and selling BMW's to China - and if they could piss off the US on a regular basis, so much the better for domestic politics.
It now has a choice, effectively allow Putin to move westwards to eventually confront EU states like Poland in a few years time, or have its economy fucked by high energy prices if Russia turns the gas supply off. The chickens may be coming home to roost.
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What's the odds Biden and his govt. are hyping the extent of the threat to give him a badly needed win on something - anything - if Russia decides not to attack?
The threat is real and has been for some time. While it's interesting Putin has ratcheted up the pressure since Trump went, I actually think Biden has handled this pretty well so far. The proof of the pudding will be if he carries thru on his threats if Putin does invade.
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@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
It now has a choice, effectively allow Putin to move westwards to eventually confront EU states like Poland in a few years time, or have its economy fucked by high energy prices if Russia turns the gas supply off. The chickens may be coming home to roost.
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term. It would decimate Russia's economy - petroleum exports constitutes half its exports.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Since sanctions were applied in 2014, Putin has built a war-chest to guard against financial pressure from the West, the world has changed and economic power has moved rapidly to China/Asia Pacific. He is forging an alliance with China, so will be way less reliant on Western financial pressure, now and in the next few years.
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An interesting 30 minute listen on the current situation:
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Russia moving troops away from the border, exercise is over apparently.
And the West has been disgraced according to Putin.
Of all the shit going down globally, the China / Russia alliance is the thing that scares me the most.
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@bayimports said in Ukraine:
personally i like this take on the situation lol
Meet the stunning female soldiers defending Ukraine from Vladimir Putin’s ‘invading’ Russian armies
DON’T let good looks and attractive smiles deceive you – these are crack troops trained to halt Vladimir Putin’s invading army in its tracks. Photographs of the stunning female soldiers defen…
Crack troops huh? Will they be handing it out at the border?
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Seems to me Putin wants a legacy, and draw attention away from something and this is an exercise to invade somewhere but it might not be the Ukraine.
NB how meshed is Crimea now with Russia? Have not kept up with it, seems to be a puppet de facto Russian satellite now?Back in history:
Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago?
In 1954 the Soviet Union transferred control of Crimea to Soviet Ukraine. Mark Kramer (Harvard) explains the reasons behind this surprising decision, one which has come back to haunt Ukraine today with tragic consequences.
(1) the cession of Crimea was a “noble act on the part of the Russian people” to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the “reunification of Ukraine with Russia” (a reference to the Treaty of Pereyaslav signed in 1654 by representatives of the Ukrainian Cossack Hetmanate and Tsar Aleksei I of Muscovy) and to “evince the boundless trust and love the Russian people feel toward the Ukrainian people”;..Boundless, huh.
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@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Then we're in a dangerous new era and all bets are off I guess.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Then we're in a dangerous new era and all bets are off I guess.
Yeah, just hope that people in the West have woken up and don't sleepwalk into problems. So far, so good and Biden's handled this OK.
Article about Putin's financial muscle. The author's a bit of a drama queen but points out that Putin runs a strong economy, has huge cash reserves and could cut off gas supplies to Europe for 2 years before feeling any pain.
Putin is close to winning in Ukraine
Markets bet a Western sell-out on Mr Putin’s terms is the most likely outcome
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American Prestige: Special - Ukraine Explain 2 on Apple Podcasts
Show American Prestige, Ep Special - Ukraine Explain 2 - Feb 18, 2022
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Can't someone come up with a new play?
Vlad's using one that's been recycled over and over
"ooh, these areas of the Ukraine are actually independent. And it's a bit war-ish there, so i am just sending in some peacekeepers. Absolutely nothing to see here"
fucking super subtle Vlad.
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@mariner4life he doesn't need to be subtle when neither America or the UK will send troops. Germany is so wedded to their gas they're making little noise at all.
Quite frankly the military involvements of the last two decades has surely created an unwillingness to engage in yet another war, this followed up by the wholesale restrictions of the last two years, the focus on partisanship divide, wokeness, race theory in schools, trans rights etc. means we're just not in a mindset to combat Russia and China.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@mariner4life he doesn't need to be subtle when neither America or the UK will send troops. Germany is so wedded to their gas they're making little noise at all.
Quite frankly the military involvements of the last two decades has surely created an unwillingness to engage in yet another war, this followed up by the wholesale restrictions of the last two years, the focus on partisanship divide, wokeness, race theory in schools, trans rights etc. means we're just not in a mindset to combat Russia and China.
i actually thought this morning "the West needs to give him a very short sharp smack on the nose here"
very easy for me to say when i won't have to do the whacking
i don't live in the UkraineBut Russia is very clearly taking the piss because the "West" doesn't want to do this shit any more.
When i read "immediate economic sanctions" i just laughed. Putin (from my outside, ill-informed chair) doesn't give a fuck. He'll be fine. His people will suffer, but they are used to it, and it's super easy to point the finger that it's all the fault of the West.
Rinse and repeat.
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So will anyone really fight Russia beyond token resistance?
Or they just roll-in? -
@frank well the Ukranian Leader is not afraid...but needs his mates to stand alongside him
"We are not afraid", he declares, adding that his country is waiting for clear and effective steps of support from its international partners.
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A good speech from the Kenyan UN Ambassador
Kenya's envoy to UN cites colonial past as he condemns Russian move into Ukraine – video
Kenya urges diplomacy as Russia sends peacekeeping forces to eastern Ukraine
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There will be no winners out of this regardless of any result.
Living in "the west", it all obviously reads to me that Putin is not happy with the level of respect being given to Russia & doesn't like Ukraine potentially being part of Nato. Think's he weakens Russia it basically, him.
If you listen to his speech last night, it does actually help to understand his point of view. I think he's a bit deluded, but must remember that I can only make my own views on what I read, which is the same as Russians. Since Covid, I no longer hold the view that any media, Russian or otherwise, can be viewed as a source of fact. IT does appear that Putin views Ukraine as part of Russia and is simply looking to take it back.
However, having read this morning that Dianne Abbot views the whole thing as Nato's fault, then I must conclude that Nato are without fault.
God help us all. This planet really is totally fucked.
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I'm not surprised that Putin wants a sphere of influence around Russia, and if Ukraine won't play ball as he demands, he'll take what he wants.
At the end of the day, no-one is going to go to war with him over the Ukraine.
Panic, Slaughter and Lies
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