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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Reports today that Barnier has told opposition MPs that EU would be receptive to one to two year transition extension.
You would think that this sort of thing would be a pragmatic decision to make wouldn't you?
It depends on how much UK would have to pay into the colossal budgets EU have set aside to help other nations after they were so pitiful to Italy & Spain.
Reading between the lines, there is a huge bill attached to extension.
But I have no doubt a deal will be done by 31 December. But the special of the day rather than the gourmet menu.
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I'm surprised by the EU's approach to the talks.
They have taken a position on a trade deal much different from before and seem to be trying to push for an extension rather than an outline of a deal.
Perhaps when Coronavirus has eased more sensible EU leaders might force Barnier & co. to become more willing to negotiate.
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A colleague of my wife's at a major UK law firm posted on fb on Brexit day:
"I don't mean to sound harsh, but if you are over 65 and voted for Brexit and are today attending a leaving party, I hope you die".
UK people have lost their mind over this.
The UK legal profession are 95% remain, and anyone whom they meet and who confesses to be leave is treated like a retard.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
I'm surprised by the EU's approach to the talks.
They have taken a position on a trade deal much different from before and seem to be trying to push for an extension rather than an outline of a deal.
Perhaps when Coronavirus has eased more sensible EU leaders might force Barnier & co. to become more willing to negotiate.
My hunch is some at EU thought that with help from UK Civil Service UK could be bounced into extension. Hence a maximalist approach to hold back cards for a two year negotiation.
Some reports that Barnier's prepared to row back on fishing to try and get some movement from UK.
My read is that UK will deal on level playing field non-regression, but wants state aid carved out.
Perhaps biggest hurdle is agreeing a dispute resolution arrangement. Any EU standards would have to be arbitrated by ECJ. But if generalist approach then some form of independent arbitration could work, a la Canadian trade agreement.
UK will have to throw some fishbones to get the services access/accreditations it craves.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
I'm surprised by the EU's approach to the talks.
They have taken a position on a trade deal much different from before and seem to be trying to push for an extension rather than an outline of a deal.
Perhaps when Coronavirus has eased more sensible EU leaders might force Barnier & co. to become more willing to negotiate.
My hunch is some at EU thought that with help from UK Civil Service UK could be bounced into extension. Hence a maximilist approach to hold back cards for a two year negotiation.
Some reports that Barnier's prepared to row back on fishing to try and get some movement from UK.
My read is that UK will deal on level playing field non-regression, but wants state aid carved out.
Perhaps biggest hurdle is agreeing a dispute resolution arrangement. Any EU standards would have to be arbitrated by ECJ. But if generalist approach then some form of independent arbitration could work, a la Canadian trade agreement.
UK will have to throw some fishbones to get the services access/accreditations it craves.
Sense the UK is going to play hard-ball on fishing. They are happy to have an annually-agreed quota but may agree a 2-3 transition period quota. Lots of talk in these parts of a really big increase in fisheries protection manpower & vessels.
On trade, I'm interested in the way the current govt uses Oz as a model. So I think we'll either have a Canada-style deal or maybe no deal at all.
Frankly, I don't think the EU gets it. Perhaps when Covid calms down and it's clear the UK really is walking away in June, they might get serious
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
I'm surprised by the EU's approach to the talks.
They have taken a position on a trade deal much different from before and seem to be trying to push for an extension rather than an outline of a deal.
Perhaps when Coronavirus has eased more sensible EU leaders might force Barnier & co. to become more willing to negotiate.
My hunch is some at EU thought that with help from UK Civil Service UK could be bounced into extension. Hence a maximalist approach to hold back cards for a two year negotiation.
Some reports that Barnier's prepared to row back on fishing to try and get some movement from UK.
My read is that UK will deal on level playing field non-regression, but wants state aid carved out.
Perhaps biggest hurdle is agreeing a dispute resolution arrangement. Any EU standards would have to be arbitrated by ECJ. But if generalist approach then some form of independent arbitration could work, a la Canadian trade agreement.
UK will have to throw some fishbones to get the services access/accreditations it craves.
Sense the UK is going to play hard-ball on fishing. They are happy to have an annually-agreed quota but may agree a 2-3 transition period quota. Lots of talk in these parts of a really big increase in fisheries protection manpower & vessels.
On trade, I'm interested in the way the current govt uses Oz as a model. So I think we'll either have a Canada-style deal or maybe no deal at all.
Frankly, I don't think the EU gets it. Perhaps when Covid calms down and it's clear the UK really is walking away in June, they might get serious
UK won't accept a 20 year fishing deal, such as represented by EU current mandate.
But UK fishing less than 1% GDP. Of UK caught fish 80% exported to EU, etc.. And of fish eaten in UK 80% imported from EU etc..
So UK will throw EU bones on this. It is a huge issue for the fishing eight EU countries, and ought to buy a decent amount of goodwill for other areas.
Canada style deal will work for EU on goods, but UK will have to accept no regression on the level of standards in place at end of transition.
I don't believe there are any good services precedents. Massive area for UK and it's seeking passporting and accreditations as is. In my view that will have a significant cost. Trickiest area may be that UK will want equivalence rather than adhering to EU standards, which would need to be adjudicated by ECJ.
So some progress until 30 June, but when transition not extended then it will get serious real quick.
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Good points
But UK fishing less than 1% GDP. Of UK caught fish 80% exported to EU, etc..
I sense the first figure will change significantly. The EU saw fisheries exports as a big win in the EU-Japan FTA. As the UK has already grandfathered that deal into UK trade, I'd see the EU % poss. dropping a little. UK may even do a fishing right deal with non-European nations
Trickiest area may be that UK will want equivalence rather than adhering to EU standards, which would need to be adjudicated by ECJ.
Or a agreed neutral body as per the Canada deal or Japan deal. I can't see ECJ adjudication being acceptable - it's probably a deal-breaker
So some progress until 30 June, but when transition not extended then it will get serious real quick.
Or poss. some initial EU shenanigans like we saw when Trump evened up tariffs on EU imports. Lots of huffing and puffing but once they realised he was serious the tune changed quickly.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
Good points
But UK fishing less than 1% GDP. Of UK caught fish 80% exported to EU, etc..
I sense the first figure will change significantly. The EU saw fisheries exports as a big win in the EU-Japan FTA. As the UK has already grandfathered that deal into UK trade, I'd see the EU % poss. dropping a little. UK may even do a fishing right deal with non-European nations
Don't disagree.
Trickiest area may be that UK will want equivalence rather than adhering to EU standards, which would need to be adjudicated by ECJ.
Or a agreed neutral body as per the Canada deal or Japan deal. I can't see ECJ adjudication being acceptable - it's probably a deal-breaker
There's a nuance. If UK agrees to follow EU standards on services then absolute dictum of EU is that ONLY ECJ can interpret EU law, in this case on standards. Hence Swiss FTA has ECJ for EU standard/legal disputes and independent body for the rest.
So UK wants equivalence, i.e. an analogous standard, which EU accepts as equivalent. Problem is that EU currently can rescind equivalence unilaterally with one month's notice. No surprise UK is seeking a lengthier bilateral notice arrangement.
So some progress until 30 June, but when transition not extended then it will get serious real quick.
Or poss. some initial EU shenanigans like we saw when Trump evened up tariffs on EU imports. Lots of huffing and puffing but once they realised he was serious the tune changed quickly.
EU wants a trade deal, because irrespective of big market they sell more to UK than other way around. German car makers call UK 'treasure island'.
But completely the other way on services, so that will be where rubber hits the road! -
Bit of lightweight fluff via Reddit.
Brexit Consequences - a couple who planned to retire in France...
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@Paekakboyz yeah, can't say I buy into that one eh...
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@Paekakboyz said in Brexit:
Bit of lightweight fluff via Reddit.
Brexit Consequences - a couple who planned to retire in France...
Sounds like a swell guy sharing all of that.
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@Paekakboyz yeah, can't say I buy into that one eh...
Where are you at with the decision re moving to Oz?
No rush eh, will see what develops here over the next few months and start to look at options around the end of the year.
Why, you hoping for someone to pay your rent in aus? 😁
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@Rembrandt said in Brexit:
@Paekakboyz said in Brexit:
Bit of lightweight fluff via Reddit.
Brexit Consequences - a couple who planned to retire in France...
Sounds like a swell guy
sharingmaking up all of that. -
@Paekakboyz yeah, can't say I buy into that one eh...
Where are you at with the decision re moving to Oz?
No rush eh, will see what develops here over the next few months and start to look at options around the end of the year.
Why, you hoping for someone to pay your rent in aus? 😁
Ha no, we've been luck with our tenants, haven't heard a peep through all this
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@Paekakboyz yeah, can't say I buy into that one eh...
Where are you at with the decision re moving to Oz?
No rush eh, will see what develops here over the next few months and start to look at options around the end of the year.
Why, you hoping for someone to pay your rent in aus? 😁
What line of business are you in?
Brexit