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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@canefan hhhmmm, who do I believe, St. C or The Herald...both always so reliable.
They are almost halfway through their term, achieved little of consequence and some of their kicking the can enquires are going to return their findings. She needs to have another baby soon I think or people might actually realise how farcical it is having her as PM.
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@jegga said in NZ Politics:
@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@canefan hhhmmm, who do I believe, St. C or The Herald...both always so reliable.
They are almost halfway through their term, achieved little of consequence and some of their kicking the can enquires are going to return their findings. She needs to have another baby soon I think or people might actually realise how farcical it is having her as PM.
That's what I was thinking. A classic DPB style move
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@jegga said in NZ Politics:
@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@canefan hhhmmm, who do I believe, St. C or The Herald...both always so reliable.
They are almost halfway through their term, achieved little of consequence and some of their kicking the can enquires are going to return their findings. She needs to have another baby soon I think or people might actually realise how farcical it is having her as PM.
Hard to gauge how the public feel about this style over substance government. The one saving grace is that if these clowns are booted out next time, they haven't done much serious damage that can't be fixed
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@jegga While I don't disagree with what you say about St C, the twin problems remain for National;
Bridges and the lack of a coalition partner. Their strategy in as much as one can be detected seems to be to move policies to the right to undermine NZF and float the idea of some sort of TEAL party in the hope that both NZF and the Greens get wiped out and they win a 2 horse race.
The problems with the above are
- NZ elections are won in the centre so moving hard right (for NZ) risks shedding votes as well as picking them up
- A conservative environmental party in NZ seems like an oxymoron and has been tried before and failed. I don't think it has legs
- Bridges - possibly the best candidate from a Labour perspective to make StC look magisterial and still retain the warm fuzzies (bleech)
Meanwhile there is the issue of JLR - what to do with him - how many more tapes does he have. Just imagine he decides to run in Botany and all through the election lead-up he drip feeds nonsense which while actually innocuous plays well in the pig-ignorant MSM.
Still Labours to lose at this stage. Nats need a lot more industrial action and at least a couple of the reports coming back this year to cause them to have a meltdown.
From Labour's perspective StC needs to grow a pair and sacrifice a couple of Ministers (Phil Twyford come on down) to convince the electorate that she is in firm control and the Magic Bus Ride will continue on its tortuous way
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
- NZ elections are won in the centre so moving hard right (for NZ) risks shedding votes as well as picking them up
Still Labours to lose at this stage.
It's a bit more nuanced than that in MMP. The centre is where you win - but you need partners on your flank to govern. That's where ACT have been a failure; they haven't hoovered up disgruntled NAT voters when National go to the middle (which they need to do to win elections).
It's tight for Labour I think. If either Green or NZF don't make it past 5%, then it's a straight shootout with National, and National probably get home. If all three make it, then National need a clear majority without a coalition partner ... which is unlikely.
remember, under MMP the John Key led landslides had majorities of 1-2 seats. MMP leads to tight outcomes, it's how it's designed.
Finally, I wouldn't be surprised if the stardust wears off in a couple of years. It's like the good looking person you know (possibly in the biblical sense :D) with a slightly irritating personality trait ... it's fine while they are new, interesting, and novel, but after time it starts to really grate, until it becomes a deal breaker.
2019 and 2020 could be very very interesting in politics. If only it wasn't so importnat for our country
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@jegga While I don't disagree with what you say about St C, the twin problems remain for National;
Bridges and the lack of a coalition partner. Their strategy in as much as one can be detected seems to be to move policies to the right to undermine NZF and float the idea of some sort of TEAL party in the hope that both NZF and the Greens get wiped out and they win a 2 horse race.
The problems with the above are
- NZ elections are won in the centre so moving hard right (for NZ) risks shedding votes as well as picking them up
- A conservative environmental party in NZ seems like an oxymoron and has been tried before and failed. I don't think it has legs
- Bridges - possibly the best candidate from a Labour perspective to make StC look magisterial and still retain the warm fuzzies (bleech)
Meanwhile there is the issue of JLR - what to do with him - how many more tapes does he have. Just imagine he decides to run in Botany and all through the election lead-up he drip feeds nonsense which while actually innocuous plays well in the pig-ignorant MSM.
Still Labours to lose at this stage. Nats need a lot more industrial action and at least a couple of the reports coming back this year to cause them to have a meltdown.
From Labour's perspective StC needs to grow a pair and sacrifice a couple of Ministers (Phil Twyford come on down) to convince the electorate that she is in firm control and the Magic Bus Ride will continue on its tortuous way
If they go into the next election promising a CGT of 28-33% they are toast . Also I can’t see both coalition partners making it past 5% .
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@nzzp that's pretty much what I thought I was saying
@jegga CGT is an interesting one for sure. It's all about how well they manage to massage the message. We already know the primary home is exempt, so the majority of Labour voters probably aren't affected. Throw in some chardonnay socialists and you can probably limit the damage. I think there is a (how high is the question) proportion of the population who see it as good for the country and will suck it up as long as it's not disproportionate and seen to be equitable to all - which brings us back to the message again.
I think the Greens are safe. Despite the lunacy they have a hard core support level probably around what they got last time. I mean if they didn't implode in 2017 what more can they do.
I think Nats have fucked up here. I outlined the dangers of going after NZF. I think the smart move would have been to sign up to an all party environmental agreement/law early this term. Sure it gives the Greens a massive win but it also removes the façade of respectability and leaves then naked with the men/pakeha/capitalists etc are fluffybunnies bullshit totally exposed. Then you can go after them hard and then they might not get to 5%. Sure the majority of them will slide to Labour but not all and the left will waste 3-4%. It seemed like National were going this way but in their hunger to go after Winston they seem to have abandoned this strategy
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@dogmeat I honestly can’t see a blue Green Party going anywhere. The MasterCard Marxist’s that vote green like the thrill of “ sticking it to the man “ and voting green then driving home in their Audi to their villa in Wadestown .
Considering how many people have their retirement tied up on investment properties I can’t see a cgt being a vote winner . I hope they campaign on it.
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Last sentence interests me , if you can get the same rates of pay nationwide doesn’t that mean more people will move out of Auckland etc if the can get the same income in a smaller city with a cheaper lifestyle?
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2019/01/the_terrible_terrible_fair_pay_proposals.html#comments
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@jegga some companies who operate all over NZ do that anyway.
When I was made redundant 6 years ago, one of my options was to be redployed to a similar role in Auckland, so my pay wouldnt have changed, just me selling my house here for top dollar of $500,000 at the time wouldnt have got me much in Auckland...
The key thing for those in Auckland, is if you move, you need to be sure you dont wanna come back as re-entering the market will be tough.
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12199271
Clearly dont import enough Meth into the country..
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12199271
If only they dealt drugs , threatened the wife , came here under false names , associated with Hell Angels and were friends with a mate of the pms they’d be sorted .
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@jegga said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12199271
If only they dealt drugs , threatened the wife , came here under false names , associated with Hell Angels and were friends with a mate of the pms they’d be sorted .
The system is an ass
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Honestly, from an optics perspective, Captain Sparkles needs to think really really carefully about her next steps. If she wants to be the mum who can run a country, she actually needs to run the fucking country. She can't waft from press conference to press conference forever while all the promises made are either not done or 're-calibrated'. I actually think announcing another pregnancy would be a terrible move for her. She needs some hard wins right now. Not more cutesy fluff.
If National were smart, they would guide the talking points to this. Unfortunately they haven't done many smart things lately. Wasting time on Winston is so fucking stupid. You don't stay in the game as long as he has without rat cunning. He'll leave on his own terms, with the silver, and not a moment before.
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@Mokey pregnancy, though, might rid us of little miss sunshine overbite.
First ever case of political espionage via contraception tampering?
Planted pharmacist, placebo pill, (modern chicks still on that?), Gaylord's birthday and voila! Either a nationwide impeachment ridicule - "how could she be so irresponsible?" Or a juicy tale of hi-so abortion (planted abortionist too. I know, it's starting to sound far fetched).
...and then we get on with trying to run the country on facts, not feelings.Possible plot dear Mokey?
NZ Politics