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So a few comments from a dairy farmer:
*So many variables. Canterbury and Wairarapa are drier soil types. River flow is less so higher chance of pollutants to build up.
In Taranaki however we started a fencing and riparian scheme voluntarily in 1995 - most farmers brought into it and over 97 percent fenced and over 90 ish planted. Canterbury and Wairarapa are further behind.
Stocking rates is also a concern (Cows per hectare) - Taranaki is 2-2.5 cow per hectare and Canterbury is 2.5-3.5. Also Higher input farms in Canterbury and Wairarapa - reliant on brought in feeds etc to maintain higher stock rates. Also depends on where waterways are etc - Most farmland in taranaki is off the mountain shorter stretch then to the sea - less chance of pollutants to build up. Wairarapa is from lake Wairarapa which is fed further up by rivers that have thousands of hectares of farmland and towns cities polluting. Canterbury Has the most pristine water coming from the alps but it meanders slowly so sedimentation happens quicker which will catch nitrates etc. Way more to go into and way more science needed to solve the issues.*
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@rembrandt said in NZ Politics:
@sammyc said in NZ Politics:
Anyone on TSF a farmer and can give us an idea on what has been going on from the other point of view?
PAJ and his cows are over in the Taranaki somewhere that last I heard but he has not been on here for a wee while.
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@tregaskis If the polls can be trusted it's neck and neck between Lab/Green and Nats with neither having an overall majority.
I think this is paradoxically a bonus for National. Lab/Green and Lab/NZF both fall short even if MP joins as well. So Labour needs an unholy alliance of Lab/Green/NZF.
Despite doing his normal coy BS Winston has actually come out in the last two days with a couple of non-negotiables. If (massive if) he wasn't pissed and can be believed or isn't bribed then he won't work with MP and any form of water tax is off the table.
On that basis a Nat/NZF government is by far the likeliest outcome with ACT sidelined as a) he won't be needed b) much easier to sell to Winnie and c) ACT will support National on confidence and supply anyway.
In late breaking news Gareth Morgan has rebranded TOP as the Monster Raving Looney party stating he expects to get 10% tomorrow and 30% in 2020
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Apparently Labours polling shows Nats ahead slightly too, although St. Jacinda wouldn't reveal how much, but was 'low single figure'
Why have they not started counting the votes already cast? Would seem to defeat the purpose of allowing early votes if you wait until Saturday to count them, allowing for all manner of things to go wrong.
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
Apparently Labours polling shows Nats ahead slightly too, although St. Jacinda wouldn't reveal how much, but was 'low single figure'
Why have they not started counting the votes already cast? Would seem to defeat the purpose of allowing early votes if you wait until Saturday to count them, allowing for all manner of things to go wrong.
I guess they don't want to leak any early indication of the result that might alter if some people will vote or not?
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The electoral commission says the advance votes tally will be released by 8.30pm http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
Agree with @dogmeat that they don't release results early because that is likely to influence voter intentions.
Advance votes were 806k as at the end of Wednesday. They release yesterday's advance vote count at 2pm today. In 2011 and 2014 only 55-60% of advance votes were cast prior to the final two days, so that means there was massive rush of advance voting on the final Thursday and Friday.
If you extrapolate that out, that could mean 1.3m to 1.4m early votes. There were about 2.5m votes cast in 2014.
I suspect the Electoral Commission thought that increasing the advancing voting from about 300 outlets to 500 outlets would help with the youth issues. But nah. As at Tuesday, enrolment is 69% for 18-24 year olds, 77% for 25-29 year olds, and 87% for 30-34 year olds, compared to 94-98% for all other age brackets.
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@tregaskis said in NZ Politics:
Another 176k advance votes yesterday, taking the amount to 986k with today's votes to go.
Mine was one of those yesterday!
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@tregaskis said in NZ Politics:
Another 176k advance votes yesterday, taking the amount to 986k with today's votes to go.
Mine was one of those yesterday!
Winston will be happy..
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@mokey said in NZ Politics:
I honestly can't wrap my head around people not using their hard-won right to vote in national elections. Fucking pathetic.
Well, as an experiment....
If the party you're planning to vote for didn't exist and you had to vote for someone else on their merits, would your reaction more be:
a. No problem, there's lots of great options out there; or
b. Christ, I'm being forced to vote for fuckwits!
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I just had a phone call from Jacinda asking me to vote.
Where the fuck do they think they get off calling me at home and annoying me on a friday night. I'd already voted and you woke me up you annoying horse. I hate telephones....mutter, mumble, bloody politicians. -
@mokey said in NZ Politics:
I honestly can't wrap my head around people not using their hard-won right to vote in national elections. Fucking pathetic.
I'm not voting
I'm informed on the issues
I have made a conscious decision not to vote several times before
I know people make the 'lesser of evils' argument. However it is not appropriate for my positions that aren't close to being represented by any party
My non vote is a choice just as much as a vote. In fact, I believe my positions are more well thought out that a larger number of voters
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@duluth said in NZ Politics:
@mokey said in NZ Politics:
I honestly can't wrap my head around people not using their hard-won right to vote in national elections. Fucking pathetic.
I'm not voting
I'm informed on the issues
I have made a conscious decision not to vote several times before
I know people make the 'lesser of evils' argument. However it is not appropriate for my positions that aren't close to being represented by any party
My non vote is a choice just as much as a vote. In fact, I believe my positions are more well thought out that a larger number of voters
Me either, more so because I've been too lazy to figure out if I can vote from Oz.
NZ Politics