Coronavirus - Overall
-
@Victor-Meldrew Yep, the more that comes out, the more I'm quite impressed.
Jury is still a long way out though on if this strategy works or not ...
-
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Victor-Meldrew Yep, the more that comes out, the more I'm quite impressed.
Jury is still a long way out though on if this strategy works or not ...
Agreed, I'm feeling somewhat more confident in them now with this current press conference. Shocking rise in cases though... Almost 2000 now. I'd love more data on range of symptoms, how many of those were serious cases etc.
-
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.
I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.
I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.
That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........
In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.
The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.
One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.
Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.
IS NZ planning anything similar?
At this stage there's two main things for business: (from https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/121-billion-support-new-zealanders-and-business)
- $2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cashflow, including a provisional tax threshold lift, the reinstatement of building depreciation and writing off interest on the late payment of tax
- $5.1 billion in wage subsidies for affected businesses in all sectors and regions, available from today, and $126 million in COVID-19 leave and self-isolation support
UK has gone nuclear today in support of businesses. Pretty impressive. £25k each for individual businesses, £330 billion loan guarantees.
-
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
UK has gone nuclear today in support of businesses. Pretty impressive. £25k each for individual businesses, £330 billion loan guarantees.
And some media commentators are complaining business will have to wait a whole week to get access to the money. Jesus wept
Hate to sound like a broken record, but some of the media are coming across as fruitcakes. Robert Peston, an alleged economics commentator, didn't seem to know the difference between a loan and a grant and was more interested in the thorny matter of BoJo's dad going to a pub.
-
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Victor-Meldrew Yep, the more that comes out, the more I'm quite impressed.
Read today that automotive paint shops and engine assembly areas have the same sterile conditions needed to assemble medical equipment.
-
@Frank My brother lives in Singapore. When shit like this happens there's something to be said for an autocratic leader (as long as they get it right)
Few things also helped. Although its a hub incoming visitor numbers plummeted. He said the streets are deserted. Also the expats largely fled a month ago - two guys in his office went back to northern Italy to avoid the virus...
However things aren't looking so rosy for Singapore today after Malaysia closed the border. They just lost 10% of the workforce and the shelves in the food shops are empty
-
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
UK has gone nuclear today in support of businesses. Pretty impressive. £25k each for individual businesses, £330 billion loan guarantees.
And some media commentators are complaining business will have to wait a whole week to get access to the money. Jesus wept
Hate to sound like a broken record, but some of the media are coming across as fruitcakes. Robert Peston, an alleged economics commentator, didn't seem to know the difference between a loan and a grant and was more interested in the thorny matter of BoJo's dad going to a pub.
They were laying into him on old Stan wanting to go the pub wern't they ... Press also made a comment about him saying "last gasp attempts" or something along the lines, poor choice of words I agree but they should be focusing on the good. I'm sick of the same stories every day, I want to hear some of the progress being made... Stories of hope etc.... Feck I'm hormonal.
-
@R-L said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
. Press also made a comment about him saying "last gasp attempts" or something along the lines, poor choice of words
Like it's really important that BoJo be pulled up on his choice of words when he's leading an effort to keep deaths down to the lower end of a 20,000 to 200,000 body count range in an unprecedented pandemic.
Most of the media asked sensible, probing questions and did their job well. Others still need to realize the world has changed just a touch in the last two week
-
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
So is the UK following through with this Herd plan or going the way of most other countries with a ‘normal’ strategy?
There really never was a Herd plan different to "normal" countries to follow thru on. The plan's been to time interventions to reduce the peak so deaths can be reduced to a minimum - pretty much what the likes of Holland, Japan, Finland, etc are doing.
As BoJo's advisers have said, group immunity will build as people gradually catch the disease and recover. If you don't do this and lock everything down, their view is the disease will simply resurface.
-
@Crucial Immunity to that current strain. I think there was some evidence of at least one additional strain but in these early stages thats far from verified. It is however impossible to avoid for a year without destroying your country so best bet is getting that immunity.
-
My local this morning. Less people, more orderly queue, a couple angry queue jumpers sent to the back of the line. Announcement at the start that there was still no TP/sugar/tissues and that meat limit was 1 per customer. (Sounds like a recipe for virus transmission to me)
There was this one old dear, in her dressing gown away from the line in one of those walkers you can sit down in. Looked like she was sobbing. I wandered over, "Do you need a hand dear?".
think bogan af voice with no trace of sobbing "Yeah just want some drink and smokes"
Staff member comes over, said they were going to sort her out after the queue ended. -
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Robert Peston, an alleged economics commentator,
That's Robert Peston, an alleged
economics commentator,Complete piston wristed gibbon. -
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
The response just simply seems to be more pragmatic, thoughtful and a view on the bigger picture - i.e, closing schools takes away a large percentage of NHS staff.
Still cautious though, this could be the biggest fuck up ever!
The thing is we just don't know which is the better response. This could backfire on Boris but it could also cement his longed for place in posterity. If this things goes well for us he will be PM for some time to come I reckon.
-
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
You guys living in the UK must be longing for quieter times, before Brexit, Megxit and now Covid 19 made things ‘interesting’..
Megxit? Really? Do you think any ferner was put out by Megxit??
-
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
This could backfire on Boris but it could also cement his longed for place in posterity
I think he's simply following and supporting his experts advice & strategy - and doing it quite well...so far.
After the Brexit fiasco, the politicians have generally handled this well. I even have to grit my teeth and say I'm impressed with Sturgeon
I get the impression posterity is the last thing on anyone's mind right now.
-
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
You guys living in the UK must be longing for quieter times, before Brexit, Megxit and now Covid 19 made things ‘interesting’..
Trust me, after Brexit, this seems quite normal....