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@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
@pakman said in US Politics:
Bottom line is that there is a cost from upholding Western ‘values’.
Yep. But will the electorate want to bear the cost of being virtuous or will they expect their politicians to provide a cost and pain-free solution?
Spot on. My reading would suggest the majority of the electorate prefer the latter.
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@Anonymous said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Polls take account by having margins of error.
Those margins can be considerable and up to 5%.Margins of error in polls don't do that because that's not what's meant by the margin of error.
What it actually means is given a truly random, unbiased sample with truthful responses we can say with 95% confidence (i.e. there's a 95% probability) that the result for the whole population would be within the margin of error from the result. It's just a calculation of how much random samples can vary based on probability distributions.
Anything else that makes the poll not representative of the population, which is what shy Trump voters would be, aren't covered by this statistic.
https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/
Good link, thanks.
What I probably should have said is that the 'shy voters' are likely to be within the margins rather than imply that the pollsters allow for them.
From the link ...
What is a Margin of Error?
A margin of error tells you how many percentage points your results will differ from the real population value. For example, a 95% confidence interval with a 4 percent margin of error means that your statistic will be within 4 percentage points of the real population value 95% of the time.So, at the moment there is a 95% chance that Biden will win even if the States within the margin of error all move in one direction.
Trump is counting on both the margin and the polls being wrong. -
I guess all will be revealed tomorrow.
Something major or just hot air? Odd to stop in-person campaigning 9 days out from an election?
https://gab.com/WarRoomPandemicFeed/posts/105098956619234182Edit. for clarity its a 1 day in-person campaigning 'lid' currently
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Mainstream media complains about the "spread of misinformation" and then plasters the "fake Melania" story all over their websites.
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@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
@Frank I think the king lost his crown in 2016. Interesting comparing polls to rally turnout, thousands vs dozens (if they're lucky). Very strange election.
Adverts are hilarious.
That is cringe worthingly funny.
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@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
@Frank I think the king lost his crown in 2016. Interesting comparing polls to rally turnout, thousands vs dozens (if they're lucky). Very strange election.
Adverts are hilarious.
wow that is so unhinged
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Its kind of cruel at this point.
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Said it months ago
His family, friends, and the DNC should be fucking ashamed of themselves
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@MiketheSnow said in US Politics:
Said it months ago
His family, friends, and the DNC should be fucking ashamed of themselves
People, inc the DNC, appear so focussed on getting rid of Trump - to the point of obsession - that all other considerations and rationality seem to have gone out the window.
It's a deranged type of politics which seems to believe getting rid of Trump is going to bring in some sort of political nirvana. The voter anger that produced Trump's win in 2016 just isn't going to go away with a Biden victory.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
@MiketheSnow said in US Politics:
Said it months ago
His family, friends, and the DNC should be fucking ashamed of themselves
People, inc the DNC, appear so focussed on getting rid of Trump - to the point of obsession - that all other considerations and rationality seem to have gone out the window.
It's a deranged type of politics which seems to believe getting rid of Trump is going to bring in some sort of political nirvana. The voter anger that produced Trump's win in 2016 just isn't going to go away with a Biden victory.
Very true but you can’t reform away from the craziness of Trump without getting rid of him first.
That is the main aim for them after all. Offering up a new way and convincing everyone about it is a much harder and riskier road -
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Very true but you can’t reform away from the craziness of Trump without getting rid of him first.
That is the main aim for them after all. Offering up a new way and convincing everyone about it is a much harder and riskier roadAnd therein lies the problem for Trump's opponents. Declaring Trump is crazy and inferring voters were not only wrong but stupid as they elected a crazy President - particularly after their loopy conspiracy theories about Russia stealing the election were exposed as just that.
The DNC don't seem to be able (or want) to see the political divide in the US, let alone understand or address it. They're no different to Trump - just more self-righteous.
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@Victor-Meldrew I don't think it matters what they say about Trump. No one is listening to each other, mostly they are all in one camp or another and in their own echo chambers. If there is a sizable swing vote out there they are not vocal
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So refreshing to have a leak that doesn't involve looking at Biden's dick.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Very true but you can’t reform away from the craziness of Trump without getting rid of him first.
That is the main aim for them after all. Offering up a new way and convincing everyone about it is a much harder and riskier roadAnd therein lies the problem for Trump's opponents. Declaring Trump is crazy and inferring voters were not only wrong but stupid as they elected a crazy President - particularly after their loopy conspiracy theories about Russia stealing the election were exposed as just that.
The DNC don't seem to be able (or want) to see the political divide in the US, let alone understand or address it. They're no different to Trump - just more self-righteous.
From your viewpoint of course. Others see the Reps as pretty self righteous as well just in a different way.
Russian interference is not a conspiracy theory. They interfered, plain as day. The investigations were about whther they were encourged from inside the camp. Investigations that were necessary because of actions and lies by certain people close to the campaign.
Trump wanted to paint it all about himself and witch hunts etc.I haven't seen any campaigning telling voters that they made a mistake or were stupid. The campaigning is about how he has acted during his tenure. You can, of course, take an inference that you are being demeaned because you helped vote him in but it certainly isn't explicit. Not even the Dems are stupid enough to demean voters twice.
From anecdotes coming through from swing states voters are quite compfortable saying that they are happy they voted for him last time but are happy not to this time. His pitch on Covid is the biggest issue he will win or lose on. Are people buying his revision of history and pitch that it will all go away or are they affected by the virus and wish he had done/is doing more in the way of leadership through the crisis.
It seems to be a gamble by Trump. He is preaching to the converted when the people that will decide this are those that need convincing. -
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Victor-Meldrew I don't think it matters what they say about Trump. No one is listening to each other, mostly they are all in one camp or another and in their own echo chambers. If there is a sizable swing vote out there they are not vocal
One of best and succinct summaries of the mess that is the US election I've read.
US Politics