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@MajorRage it would if there wasn't already a dem leaning trend to mailed in votes, as in a trend seen in prior elections. With covid and more people voting that amplifies things further.
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@MajorRage Yes. Many delayed votes have gone in his favour.
Counting is still continuing in most of the states that have been called - just people aren't focusing on those.
According to the maps I'm looking at Wyoming is still only 95% in. South Dakota 92%. North Dakota 91%. Mississippi 71%. And on and on and on.
Don't take my word for it - look yourself
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@MajorRage said in US Politics:
To play devils advocate here.
What if Trump is right? Have any of “extra”, “late” or “delayed” votes gone in his favour? Trumps odds (to put it simply) went from around 2.5 pre, to 1.1 after most votes counted. Now, after all the extras have been counted he’s back over 2.
Both Wisconsin and Arizona were called earlier for Trump. Now they are changed to Biden.
Something really smells here.
The tracking I’m looking at had had AZ as Biden the whole way through unless it flipped to trunk
And was called overnight? -
And apparently no action by the post office to the court order to find the 300k or so legal votes that haven't been delivered. Could play some real devil's advocate there 😁
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I guess 2020 isn't done. A drawn out highly disputed election is probably the worst result. Sounds like there might be recounts and potentially head to the courts. If the Trump base feel they have been cheated will they protest? This might get really ugly.
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@MajorRage said in US Politics:
To play devils advocate here.
What if Trump is right? Have any of “extra”, “late” or “delayed” votes gone in his favour? Trumps odds (to put it simply) went from around 2.5 pre, to 1.1 after most votes counted. Now, after all the extras have been counted he’s back over 2.
Both Wisconsin and Arizona were called earlier for Trump. Now they are changed to Biden.
Something really smells here.
The reason for the late voting going to Biden are two fold.
- Urban counties were counted late which favour Democrats.
- Mail in votes counted late which favour Democrats (Democrat registered voters make up a majority of voters that requested mail in ballots). More people are voting mail in this year due to Covid-19.
In Ohio the mail in votes were counted first - so Ohio started off looking like Biden would win and then flipped to Trump.
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@Kiwiwomble when I checked this morning Arizona was showing as likely Trump.
Look, in m own person opinion it's unlikely that something has gone down. However, I'm not quite ready to just shun Trump's argument here. Yes, there was huge mail in voting this time, at unprecedented levels. And the MSM have been feeding the narrative quite strongly that this is "voters ensuring Trump doesn't get back in". I mean, see this quote here on the BBC as of right now:
"Nevada is very, very close. It wouldn't take much of a shift to move the state into Trump's column. If the late-arriving mail ballots - postmarked on election day but can be delivered after - turn out to be from Trump-leaning independents or Republicans, not Democrats as expected"
Sorry, but why is it expected? What is the justification for this comment? As much as the MSM has been pushing the "lets get Trump out" narrative, the people who are quietly going to vote for Trump, haven' just disappeared. As the results have shown, they've been there, just making much less of a song and dance about it. On the (UK) radio today they interviewed somebody who works for the polls in the US about how they got it so wrong. The guy they interviewed was gutted they were wrong .. not because his life work was wrong, but because Trump looked like he could get back in! This is a guy working on the polls ... wouldn't you expect some neutrality there? People are voting during a pandemic! Of course voting patterns are going to be very different ... you can't realistically expect the additional x% of mail voters to be in synch with the traditional y%.
Look, he's one of the biggest narcissist on the planet, so rightly everybody is just dismissing this as another of his crazy bullshit theories (how could I lose etc) ... All I can say is after having watched Brexit & Covid here, and seeing such a huge fundamental difference in the truth, what politicians say and what is reported ... I literally have zero faith in the MSM. Trump knows the narrative, and suddenly is watching it all happen as they have written it would.
I'm a bit suspicious myself & not prepared to just dismiss this. Yet.
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@KiwiMurph says above - most of the postal votes were requested by registered Democrats so the assumption is that they will go to Biden. I heard on the radio this morning that of the postal votes already counted in Georgia those from Atlanta favoured Biden 3-1 and from other areas 2-1. Why it was still in play - even though a long shot.
Trump knew how all this would play out as soon as the numbers requesting mail ballots came in which is why he has been looking to discredit postal voting for weeks.
Only have to look at the we wuz robbed post 2017 reaction in NZ to see how this will resonate with unhappy Rep.
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@dogmeat said in US Politics:
@KiwiMurph says above - most of the postal votes were requested by registered Democrats so the assumption is that they will go to Biden. I heard on the radio this morning that of the postal votes already counted in Georgia those from Atlanta favoured Biden 3-1 and from other areas 2-1. Why it was still in play - even though a long shot.
Trump knew how all this would play out as soon as the numbers requesting mail ballots came in which is why he has been looking to discredit postal voting for weeks.
Only have to look at the we wuz robbed post 2017 reaction in NZ to see how this will resonate with unhappy Rep.
Yeah I remember all those National voter riots....
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@MajorRage I think it was expected because trump was telling people postal votes were bad and Biden was saying they were good...so republicans didn’t do it as much and Democrats did it loads, u less I’ve missed something
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@Kiwiwomble that alongside the work to reduce postal capacity and counting etc.
@Kirwan any more background on how/why your friend thinks there is fraud going on? genuine question.
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@Kirwan I was talking about resonate not violent reaction. You can't deny the level of outrage and anger. NZ as a society is far more moderate and respectful of its politicians than the USA. We get rid of all that pent up aggression on the footy field.
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@dogmeat said in US Politics:
@Kirwan I was talking about resonate not violent reaction. You can't deny the level of outrage and anger. NZ as a society is far more moderate and respectful of its politicians than the USA. We get rid of all that pent up aggression on the footy field.
Yeah, was just being a smart arse.
Whoever wins, there is going to be violence in the US. They have never been this polarised (well maybe the Civil War ).
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@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@MajorRage Have a friend in PA and he's adamant that there is voter fraud going on. If he's representative then people are going to be pissed off. Doesn't matter if they are right or not.
Fraud in what form?
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@rotated said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@MajorRage Have a friend in PA and he's adamant that there is voter fraud going on. If he's representative then people are going to be pissed off. Doesn't matter if they are right or not.
Fraud in what form?
Reports of election overseers being sent home because the counting is stopping, then when they left the "counting" resumed.
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@Paekakboyz said in US Politics:
@Kirwan dare we ask 'reports' from whom?
Anecodotal, will need to be proved in court with witnesses, etc
US Politics