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@pakman over half a dozen posts about democrats being encouraged to vote by mail - tied into Trump's constant messaging to avoid mail in voting and do it in person. Combined with the record turnout and here we are. Pending whatever investigations and checks and balances are upcoming.
@Winger I wonder if any of those observers refused to wear masks. Given a lot of this is being live streamed hopefully there is some clarity about these allegations soon.
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@NTA Yes, reasonably accurate and they keep refining as they go.
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx is the Pennsylvania election reporting dashboard. According to that, there are 9,091,371 registered voters, of whom 4,229,163 are Democrat, 3,543,158 are Republican and 407,519 are "other". CNN's exit polling for Pennsylvania shows that registered voters are voting for their party at a rate of 90%+, but that independents are voting for Biden by 51%-43%.
The dashboard is updating as reporting continues, but as I write this, there were 3,099,581 mail ballots issued, 2,629,342 (28.9% of registered voters) cast, 2,465,841 counted and 163,501 remaining to count. Of those, 1,702,207 were issued to Democrats, 624,732 for Republicans, 210,946 no affiliation, 80,889 other, 8,051 for Libertarians, 2,517 for Greens.
The biggest county is Philadelphia with 1,129,425 registered voters (12.42% of all registered voters), of whom 857,041 are registered as Democrats and 130,590 as Republicans.
If it is accepted that:
- the largest urban area will fully report last (it's still counting and reporting a few polling stations for election day votes)
- mail-in votes will report later because Pennsylvania counts them after the election day ballots because they take longer (each ballot has to be checked for validity as well as counted)
- mail-in votes make up 28.9% of registered voters (so will be a higher portion of actual votes cast because not all registered voters will have voted)
- registered Democrats voted 90% for Biden according to exit polling
- registered Democrats make up 64.7% of mail in voters and 78.9% of registered Philadelphia voters
To me it follows that a large portion of later votes will go Democrat.
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@Winger said in US Politics:
The sending out ballots to everyone was never a great idea. But not allowing observers to do their thing makes a not ideal situation worse
Newt Gingrich Calls on Attorney General Bill Barr to Arrest Poll Workers – Jaweb “Let’s see. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of them, a lot of them mention partisan observers are permitted to be present when ballots are counted,” Hannity stated. “But we get report after report that they are not being allowed to observe. Is that a violation of law? And how do you remedy that?” “My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what’s going on,” Gingrich fumed. “The Philadelphia machine is corrupt. The Atlanta machine is corrupt. The machine in Detroit is corrupt. And they are trying to steal the presidency. And we should not allow them to do that.” “First of all, under federal law, we should lock up the people who are breaking the law,” he continued. “You stop somebody from being an observer, you just broke federal law. Do you hide and put up papers so nobody can see what you’re doing? You just broke federal law. You bring in ballots that aren’t real? You just broke federal law.”
First, that has been to court and resolved by agreement (electoral officials and both parties agreed that 6ft = 1.83m is appropriate distancing, not anything more than that), and second, if the Democrats were actually cheating, they'd also be turning Senator elections and state legislatures (and probably Governor elections as well) and it would be showing elsewhere in those results. As I said earlier, it would be the most incompetent competence to only target the presidential election (which is the one with the most scrutiny) in a redistricting election (for reference, just as NZ does the electorate review after the census every 5 years, US states do the same after their census which is every decade at the start of the decade - a lot of states have the legislatures do it, which leads to partisan gerrymandering rather than an independent commission like here).
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@Godder said in US Politics:
@Winger said in US Politics:
The sending out ballots to everyone was never a great idea. But not allowing observers to do their thing makes a not ideal situation worse
Newt Gingrich Calls on Attorney General Bill Barr to Arrest Poll Workers – Jaweb “Let’s see. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of them, a lot of them mention partisan observers are permitted to be present when ballots are counted,” Hannity stated. “But we get report after report that they are not being allowed to observe. Is that a violation of law? And how do you remedy that?” “My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what’s going on,” Gingrich fumed. “The Philadelphia machine is corrupt. The Atlanta machine is corrupt. The machine in Detroit is corrupt. And they are trying to steal the presidency. And we should not allow them to do that.” “First of all, under federal law, we should lock up the people who are breaking the law,” he continued. “You stop somebody from being an observer, you just broke federal law. Do you hide and put up papers so nobody can see what you’re doing? You just broke federal law. You bring in ballots that aren’t real? You just broke federal law.”
First, that has been to court and resolved by agreement (electoral officials and both parties agreed that 6ft = 1.83m is appropriate distancing, not anything more than that), and second, if the Democrats were actually cheating, they'd also be turning Senator elections and state legislatures (and probably Governor elections as well) and it would be showing elsewhere in those results. As I said earlier, it would be the most incompetent competence to only target the presidential election (which is the one with the most scrutiny) in a redistricting election (for reference, just as NZ does the electorate review after the census every 5 years, US states do the same after their census which is every decade at the start of the decade - a lot of states have the legislatures do it, which leads to partisan gerrymandering rather than an independent commission like here).
The problem is the counting that occurred without observers. How can this situation be rectified?
And why do this. It creates mistrust. And the reason for observers is obvious. Even without any laws or rules governing this. It surely should never need the courts to be involved -
@NTA said in US Politics:
Fuck yes. I think it is hilarious that he's turned into a giant bitch-baby, quite frankly.
Then don't get in a debate about validity of counting, as your opinions are clouding your judgment of what I'm debating.
@voodoo said in US Politics:
Why don't you question the early leads that Trump had, given the polls?
Biden isn't questioning them. At least, from what I've seen reported.
@NTA said in US Politics:
AP do projections based on analysis and reports from officials, and everyone trusts them.
Can they accurately predict total voter numbers ahead of time?
Do they list percentage won of that total voter number or are they using what has been counted?Because I'm looking at the AP data fed via Google, and they're using all their percentages against counted votes only.
So at any point where a candidate had a 10% lead (counted) in a state with 64% counted, the second place would "only" need 59% of the remaining vote to overtake them on a simple (1 vote) majority.
I don't see your point here. I'm not discussing at any point a 10% counted lead.
@Godder said in US Politics:
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx is the Pennsylvania election reporting dashboard. According to that, there are 9,091,371 registered voters, of whom 4,229,163 are Democrat, 3,543,158 are Republican and 407,519 are "other". CNN's exit polling for Pennsylvania shows that registered voters are voting for their party at a rate of 90%+, but that independents are voting for Biden by 51%-43%.
The dashboard is updating as reporting continues, but as I write this, there were 3,099,581 mail ballots issued, 2,629,342 (28.9% of registered voters) cast, 2,465,841 counted and 163,501 remaining to count. Of those, 1,702,207 were issued to Democrats, 624,732 for Republicans, 210,946 no affiliation, 80,889 other, 8,051 for Libertarians, 2,517 for Greens.
The biggest county is Philadelphia with 1,129,425 registered voters (12.42% of all registered voters), of whom 857,041 are registered as Democrats and 130,590 as Republicans.
If it is accepted that:
- the largest urban area will fully report last (it's still counting and reporting a few polling stations for election day votes)
- mail-in votes will report later because Pennsylvania counts them after the election day ballots because they take longer (each ballot has to be checked for validity as well as counted)
- mail-in votes make up 28.9% of registered voters (so will be a higher portion of actual votes cast because not all registered voters will have voted)
- registered Democrats voted 90% for Biden according to exit polling
- registered Democrats make up 64.7% of mail in voters and 78.9% of registered Philadelphia voters
To me it follows that a large portion of later votes will go Democrat.
Boom, finally. An actual thought out response which demonstrates why the anomaly might be so!
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Mark Landler, [NY TImes] The next few batches of votes to be counted could vault Biden past Trump in pivotal Pennsylvania. That raises a politically fraught question for the TV networks: When do they call the race?
Here is an interesting question - the Hill are already questioning why Nevada hasn't been called yet...
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@gt12 said in US Politics:
Mark Landler, [NY TImes] The next few batches of votes to be counted could vault Biden past Trump in pivotal Pennsylvania. That raises a politically fraught question for the TV networks: When do they call the race?
Here is an interesting question - the Hill are already questioning why Nevada hasn't been called yet...
Quite a small lead and I've read a theory that nobody is calling Nevada because Arizona is called by some places, and this might pressure someone to call the election prematurely.
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@Godder said in US Politics:
@gt12 said in US Politics:
Mark Landler, [NY TImes] The next few batches of votes to be counted could vault Biden past Trump in pivotal Pennsylvania. That raises a politically fraught question for the TV networks: When do they call the race?
Here is an interesting question - the Hill are already questioning why Nevada hasn't been called yet...
Quite a small lead and I've read a theory that nobody is calling Nevada because Arizona is called by some places, and this might pressure someone to call the election prematurely.
The lack of a decisive victory either way is kicking the conspiracy theorists into overdrive. Trump certainly isn't helping, regardless of if there was a problem or not.
Should Biden emerge as the winner, without the support of the senate, the most he can hope for in the first two years is to at least change the tone of the Presidency and try to foster moderation in the country. Then see what the mid terms brings
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Interesting article. Wisconsin. 88% turnout. 2012 was 65%. Ohio was 68% this election
Milwaukee Officials Have Some Explaining to Do By Jack Cashill A rumor circulated widely that more people voted in Wisconsin than were registered. Although not true, it strikes me as an honest mistake. The originator of the rumor was looking at the registration numbers for 2018. More people did vote in Wisconsin in 2020 than were registered in 2018. The real numbers are almost as incredible. In 2020, an astounding 88 percent of those registered to vote seem to have voted. In Ohio, another battleground state, the turnout was a much more typical 68 percent. The highest voter turnout in recent years nationwide was 61.6 percent in 2008. In 2012, the last year for which data are readily available for Wisconsin, the turnout was 65 percent. If the Wisconsin average was 88 percent statewide, some parts of the state obviously had to have higher numbers. In this regard, the City of Milwaukee is suspect, and not all of Milwaukee, either. Contrary to expectation, in many of the wards with the heaviest concentration of black American voters, the turnout was relatively light. Joe Biden was no Barack Obama, but more on this in a minute. As a caution, let me call this a work in progress. I am looking at a ward-by-ward spreadsheet that strikes me as a legitimate. Those who know Milwaukee better than I should feel free to contact me through American Thinker. The most striking feature of the data is a fact that cries out for clarification: in seven wards, voter turnout appears to have exceeded 100 percent. In two of those wards, turnout exceeded 200 percent. In another 15 wards, voter turnout exceeded 95 percent. Joe Biden carried 21 of the 22 wards of the 95-plus-percent wards. But then again, he carried all but one of the 67 additional wards in which the turnout was above 90 percent and won 80 percent of the vote citywide.
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@Winger said in US Politics:
@Godder said in US Politics:
@Winger said in US Politics:
The sending out ballots to everyone was never a great idea. But not allowing observers to do their thing makes a not ideal situation worse
Newt Gingrich Calls on Attorney General Bill Barr to Arrest Poll Workers – Jaweb “Let’s see. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of them, a lot of them mention partisan observers are permitted to be present when ballots are counted,” Hannity stated. “But we get report after report that they are not being allowed to observe. Is that a violation of law? And how do you remedy that?” “My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what’s going on,” Gingrich fumed. “The Philadelphia machine is corrupt. The Atlanta machine is corrupt. The machine in Detroit is corrupt. And they are trying to steal the presidency. And we should not allow them to do that.” “First of all, under federal law, we should lock up the people who are breaking the law,” he continued. “You stop somebody from being an observer, you just broke federal law. Do you hide and put up papers so nobody can see what you’re doing? You just broke federal law. You bring in ballots that aren’t real? You just broke federal law.”
First, that has been to court and resolved by agreement (electoral officials and both parties agreed that 6ft = 1.83m is appropriate distancing, not anything more than that), and second, if the Democrats were actually cheating, they'd also be turning Senator elections and state legislatures (and probably Governor elections as well) and it would be showing elsewhere in those results. As I said earlier, it would be the most incompetent competence to only target the presidential election (which is the one with the most scrutiny) in a redistricting election (for reference, just as NZ does the electorate review after the census every 5 years, US states do the same after their census which is every decade at the start of the decade - a lot of states have the legislatures do it, which leads to partisan gerrymandering rather than an independent commission like here).
The problem is the counting that occurred without observers. How can this situation be rectified?
And why do this. It creates mistrust. And the reason for observers is obvious. Even without any laws or rules governing this. It surely should never need the courts to be involvedAnd yet, when in court, it was resolved by agreement, not a ruling. It's also livestreamed so was probably being observed remotely, and being paper ballots, can just be recounted.
That aside, if a candidate wants to challenge something and there is a disagreement with the local officials, court is the obvious next step - ideally not, but sometimes the question is a legal one that needs the court to provide a precedent.
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@Godder said in US Politics:
@Winger said in US Politics:
@Godder said in US Politics:
@Winger said in US Politics:
The sending out ballots to everyone was never a great idea. But not allowing observers to do their thing makes a not ideal situation worse
Newt Gingrich Calls on Attorney General Bill Barr to Arrest Poll Workers – Jaweb “Let’s see. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of them, a lot of them mention partisan observers are permitted to be present when ballots are counted,” Hannity stated. “But we get report after report that they are not being allowed to observe. Is that a violation of law? And how do you remedy that?” “My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what’s going on,” Gingrich fumed. “The Philadelphia machine is corrupt. The Atlanta machine is corrupt. The machine in Detroit is corrupt. And they are trying to steal the presidency. And we should not allow them to do that.” “First of all, under federal law, we should lock up the people who are breaking the law,” he continued. “You stop somebody from being an observer, you just broke federal law. Do you hide and put up papers so nobody can see what you’re doing? You just broke federal law. You bring in ballots that aren’t real? You just broke federal law.”
First, that has been to court and resolved by agreement (electoral officials and both parties agreed that 6ft = 1.83m is appropriate distancing, not anything more than that), and second, if the Democrats were actually cheating, they'd also be turning Senator elections and state legislatures (and probably Governor elections as well) and it would be showing elsewhere in those results. As I said earlier, it would be the most incompetent competence to only target the presidential election (which is the one with the most scrutiny) in a redistricting election (for reference, just as NZ does the electorate review after the census every 5 years, US states do the same after their census which is every decade at the start of the decade - a lot of states have the legislatures do it, which leads to partisan gerrymandering rather than an independent commission like here).
The problem is the counting that occurred without observers. How can this situation be rectified?
And why do this. It creates mistrust. And the reason for observers is obvious. Even without any laws or rules governing this. It surely should never need the courts to be involvedAnd yet, when in court, it was resolved by agreement, not a ruling. It's also livestreamed so was probably being observed remotely, and being paper ballots, can just be recounted.
That aside, if a candidate wants to challenge something and there is a disagreement with the local officials, court is the obvious next step - ideally not, but sometimes the question is a legal one that needs the court to provide a precedent.
But for example Trump' son has provided an explanation as to why it was done (kicking out observers). Its the reason that i would give in any election worldwide. Kick out observers = cheating. Its either gross incompetence or cheating. Either is not a good look
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@Winger Georgia has a completely Republican administration - Governor, Secretary of State, legislatures, and they are vocally pro-Trump. It is not remotely credible that they are suddenly conspiring against Trump.
Biden now has the lead in Pennsylvania by 5,587 votes - 31,412 votes just dropped, 87% of which were for Biden.
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@Godder said in US Politics:
@Winger Georgia has a completely Republican administration - Governor, Secretary of State, legislatures, and they are vocally pro-Trump. It is not remotely credible that they are suddenly conspiring against Trump.
Biden now has the lead in Pennsylvania by 5,587 votes - 31,412 votes just dropped, 87% of which were for Biden.
But Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin might be. Esp when the vote number as a % is high
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@Winger said in US Politics:
@Godder said in US Politics:
@Winger Georgia has a completely Republican administration - Governor, Secretary of State, legislatures, and they are vocally pro-Trump. It is not remotely credible that they are suddenly conspiring against Trump.
Biden now has the lead in Pennsylvania by 5,587 votes - 31,412 votes just dropped, 87% of which were for Biden.
But Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin might be. Esp when the vote number as a % is high
We don't fully know what turnout is yet as people can register and vote at the same time, but these are historically Democrat states until last election when Trump won by small margins over Hillary who turned out to be political poison. It's hardly surprising that they are returning to the Democrats and that the Democrats worked hard to turn out their vote.
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Is there any actual evidence of watchers being reasonably denied access in Pennsylvania?
The campaign sued in federal court to halt the counting of votes in Philadelphia, claiming its observers were not being given access. The lawsuit came after earlier litigation on the issue in state court
Paul Diamond, a George W. Bush appointee, sounded exasperated during an emergency hearing on the lawsuit. He asked the Trump campaign lawyer whether its observers were in the counting room.“There's a non zero number of people in the room,” the lawyer replied. Judge Diamond ultimately extracted the answer “yes” and remarked, “I'm sorry, then what's your problem?”
Judge Diamond pushed the parties to agree to an immediate settlement to avoid the need for any further litigation. The deal allows up to 60 observers each for Republicans and Democrats. He dismissed the lawsuit without prejudice — meaning it could be refiled — in light of the agreement.
“If we can show the world that both sides can act reasonably to resolve this, that would be wonderful,” he said.
There may have been confusion regarding distance, amount of watchers, masks etc? But I'm yet to see an actual counting
Shades of the judgement in Michigan which stated:
Plaintiffs argue that the Michigan Election Law and state Constitution were violated when election inspectors from each major political party was not present for the counting and processing of absent voter ballots at absent voter counting boards. But Plaintiffs do not identify any jurisdiction in which this purported irregularity occurred or set forth any facts supporting their assertions. Plaintiffs further argue that challengers should have the opportunity to review video surveillance footage of drop boxes into which absent voter ballots were placed before those ballots can be counted. But the law does not provide for any such right or opportunity, and the time for pressing this claim has long since passed.
Even a cursory review of Plaintiffs’ filings demonstrates that their vague legal claims and nonexistent facts hold no water and should be dismissed.
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Mrs Meldrew sums up US Politics after watching Trump rant on TV
Mrs M: "I thought Trump was Republican"
Me: "He is"
Mrs M: "So who has been saying for the last few years US elections were rigged?"
Me: "The Democrats, mainly"
Mrs M: But they're now saying US elections are fair...?" -
@Godder said in US Politics:
Neither party has usually complained seriously about ballot fraud, especially since most ballots are for multiple elections. The main complaints about rigging elections are gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics.
What he said.
US Politics