Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
They also trot out that unemployment line regularly, even though the reality is that it's totally propped up by the Gov debt going from $50bn to $200bn by 2024.
For better or worse, that's literally NZ's cross-party economic disaster recovery plan for everything (except ACT's). Run up debt when the global economy get's tough or the Pacific ring of fire flares up, then pay it down in the better times. Put to good effect by Bill English for the GFC and the Christchurch earthquakes. Keep most people in jobs, then try and grow our way out of the debt.
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Whilst it's true I'm now in Oz, I've also had the pleasure of being in NZ for self-isolation, L4 Lockdown, then every level on the way back to L1.
I've then experienced NSW as we went through our own levels, inc the Northern Beaches lockdown, and relative freedom either side of that.You've lived through it more than most, so I still wonder if it's your fault
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Even if you're prepared to pay for your MIQ, getting a spot is a total disaster. I looked the other week, there wasn't a single spot available to book, for any date in the future!
I think MIQ demand was significantly underestimated. It might have been eased by an Australian style control on departures, but also by more capacity too...
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
They also trot out that unemployment line regularly, even though the reality is that it's totally propped up by the Gov debt going from $50bn to $200bn by 2024. I've been told no international students til 2022, and its hard to see international travel until then either.
The job losses have definitely hit in that sector. I wonder how many of the 1,000 Masters students exempted will get deterred by the increase in quarantine fees...
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@voodoo I'm pretty much as unaffected as your friends but I'm happy to hear plenty of bad words about Jacinda. It's just when I contrast her with ScoMo BoJo or DumbDo I think meh - maybe not so bad.
The NZ response was pretty similar to NSW's this last time round, but they made the call it hadn't worked solely because the rules haven't been followed. Personally I give no credence to the apologists who are trying to shift the blame from personal responsibility to poor messaging by Ministry of Health. Twelve months fuckwits. You knew what the rules were. Don't even try it.
I agree about international students (large number come from Covid hot spots) and travel. Sucks for those affected but I think both of those industries were due a reset anyhow.
Govt debt. Fuck I wish it was higher. Borrow fucking more while money is so cheap and use it to catch up on decades of infrastructure underspend. It's still low by comparison with almost every developed country and economically we are performing way better than those same countries. Our govt debt will still peak at less than most European countries levels pre Covid.
I give the govt a cautious pass on Covid. It's everything else I criticise them for - although I don't see the opposition parties offering anything as an alternative
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
They also trot out that unemployment line regularly, even though the reality is that it's totally propped up by the Gov debt going from $50bn to $200bn by 2024.
For better or worse, that's literally NZ's cross-party economic disaster recovery plan for everything (except ACT's). Run up debt when the global economy get's tough or the Pacific ring of fire flares up, then pay it down in the better times. Put to good effect by Bill English for the GFC and the Christchurch earthquakes. Keep most people in jobs, then try and grow our way out of the debt.
Yeah, don't disagree with that, I'm just also making the point that:
a. Debt could have been lower with more judicious use of the lockdown stick; and
b. Low unemployment isn't some magical evidence of successful economic planning@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Even if you're prepared to pay for your MIQ, getting a spot is a total disaster. I looked the other week, there wasn't a single spot available to book, for any date in the future!
I think MIQ demand was significantly underestimated. It might have been eased by an Australian style control on departures, but also by more capacity too...
no doubt it caught them by surprise, but a lot of time has passed now to adjust to that. Same goes for Australia where we have $40k aussies wanting to come home but can't, and our own swather of international students wanting to come and learn. It just doesn't strike me as the hardest problem to solve if the desire was there - load them up on a couple of A380's, get them straight on an empty cruise ship or send them into a scout jamboree site in the bush - after that they're here for a year with no desire to leave, sending thousands of $?
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
You've lived through it more than most, so I still wonder if it's your fault
Probably right
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@dogmeat I'd also be fine with govt debt IF it was spent on infrastructure. As has been noted, $50bn isn't a big number relative to GDP and global levels, though $200bn is getting up there. I just think a good chunk of this rise is wasteful and self-inflicted
I don't think ScoMo has done too badly through this. He has tried to find the balance between health and economy, and has the constant ongoing battle with dealing with State premiers who have very different agendas
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
What happens with international travel isn't for one country to decide.
So this. It is sometimes forgotten in the arguments about what a country should do.
Even now there are some people in NZ who theoretically can return home, but in practice the travel arrangements are a potential house of cards if the trip requires more than one international transit.
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
b. Low unemployment isn't some magical evidence of successful economic planning
True, planners tend to get too much credit or blame for the (un)employment figures. It's just the economic metric I'm most strongly biased toward, given my career to date.
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It would appear that the KFC worker was following instructions as listed on the ministry's own unite against covid19 site.
Untidy
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Weird post above by MajorRage.
Not bad, just weird. As it positioned a POV which is almost 100% opposite to the way I was feeling about it. Interesting, and me me think how I feel which I summarise below.
It's almost going exactly to plan with the light at the end of the tunnel even earlier than expected.
Locked down.
Closed border.
Increase ICU capacity etc
Contain or eliminate when pops back up.
Hope for vaccines so can re-open.That's exactly what is happening.
Use of the word 'plan' and 'hope' are probably interchangeable on some parts, along with 'luck' and even 'unintended consquences' (E.g. surprise elimination in first loickdown meant ambitions were raised.)
Promising a country will re-open in 3 months time is probably as useful as promising "Christmas won't be ruined". Just ruined January and February instead, but way worse. Hard to plan for in this environment, and making early line in the sand promises can just make things worse, like UK 3rd wave and 3rd lockdown.
The NZ plan(or UK plan) could be scuttled by the Manaus variant, of course, or whatever else mutates to be potentially largely impervient to immunity , but it's all on the hope side of the ledger at the moment.
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@mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@donsteppa no, what is actually depressing is how many times the comms people provide a plan and advice, get ignored, then are expected to clean up the mess that ALWAYS happens.
I think I've seen too much of both situations in recent years...
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It would appear that the KFC worker was following instructions as listed on the ministry's own unite against covid19 site.
Untidy
Fuck Jacinda Adern, seriously. Throws this poor woman under the bus to deflect blame and it turns out she either 1) had no idea what advice was given to her or 2) knew what was said but tried to deflect anyway. That's seriously not good enough from the PM, the amount of abuse from all the Covid Nazis that woman would have copped would be next level.
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The job losses have definitely hit in that sector. I wonder how many of the 1,000 Masters students exempted will get deterred by the increase in quarantine fees...
As someone who works in the sector, I think both NZ and Oz placed too much reliance on international students. They should only ever be icing on the cake of either country's higher education system. Yet it appears both countries (I'm less knowledgable about NZ as I haven't worked in HE over there in a long time so just going by discussions with friends/media) have allowed them to become too big a revenue stream. As @dogmeat notes they were due a reset anyway.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I would say it's the opposite! The TSF view is more negative on NZ by those in NZ than I'd expect! Although that perhaps is because it's a clear contrast to the Jacinda loving media which means she is not being properly held to account for the govt failings.
Agree with that from the outside looking in, my IRL friends, family and colleagues (of all political persuasions) are way more positive about how things have gone in NZ than what I read on the Fern.
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@nepia said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Agree with that from the outside looking in, my IRL friends, family and colleagues (of all political persuasions) are way more positive about how things have gone in NZ than what I read on the Fern.
I'm pinning some of the TSF angle on your fellow West Islanders and the UK based night shift.
@nepia said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
As someone who works in the sector, I think both NZ and Oz placed too much reliance on international students. They should only ever be icing on the cake of either country's higher education system. Yet it appears both countries (I'm less knowledgable about NZ as I haven't worked in HE over there in a long time so just going by discussions with friends/media) have allowed them to become too big a revenue stream. As @dogmeat notes they were due a reset anyway.
(as a newly discovered emoticon!)
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
(as a newly discovered emoticon!)
Don't say I don't contribute around here...
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@donsteppa i know you were waiting for me to jump in, but, i am not critical of just the NZ approach, but the entire Australasian approach, mainly because this strategy always had the longest way out, and at no point has it been discussed. There is zero discussion about a light at the end of the tunnel.
I have been more critical of the State Premiers than the NZ government.
My frustrations with NZ are just of a personal nature if i am totally honest.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
There is zero discussion about a light at the end of the tunnel.
you'd have to think there are plans, many high level discussions, but they need to be giving the general public information as well (even dumbed down stuff, cos thats what we expect in this day and age)
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
There is zero discussion about a light at the end of the tunnel.
you'd have to think there are plans, many high level discussions, but they need to be giving the general public information as well (even dumbed down stuff, cos thats what we expect in this day and age)
i find it is much easier to get compliance out of my kids if they see an end point, and know the stages to get there.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
There is zero discussion about a light at the end of the tunnel.
you'd have to think there are plans, many high level discussions, but they need to be giving the general public information as well (even dumbed down stuff, cos thats what we expect in this day and age)
i find it is much easier to get compliance out of my kids if they see an end point, and know the stages to get there.
Also gives the impression you are in control. Even if the process doesn't go quite as planned, at least people can see you have a plan