Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?
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@rotated We have shown our ability to win ugly two times this year against quality committed opposition (SA in Pretoria, and England). As you say we are in the mix, I think we have the quality required to win the cup, and superior depth to any other country. Having said all that, as we observed over the 24 years from 1987 to 2011, it is a difficult competition to win and should not be taken for granted. We fans have been spoiled of late, but should be under no illusions that an AB win will be easy in knock out rugby, one off game and we are on the plane home. Shag knows what he is doing though, and I think the squad is building very well.
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Big point missing in the posts above is that most of the symptoms described occur at periods in matches where we are trying different things. We are trying to build up a variety of playing systems and the ability to switch them up during matches.
I think recent games have shown evidence of that where, on the surface, it can look like we changed attitude or focus when, in reality, we made quite big changes like pod systems, width of first phase etc etc.
I think we made two major change ups in the England game which stopped them scoring for the last hour of the game. We went back to a 13/1/2 defensive system (after the 14/1 version resulted in a manipulated try) and we changed the midfield pods/drives.
What this means for RWC is that opposition teams will need a variety of analysed attacks and be able to assess which ones to use. England didn't have enough tricks and once they ran out of them the scoreboard got stuck. We have also developed, since 2015, an ability to change up before we need to ie move from plan B to C before the opposition implemented plans against B.
In some games (Lions Tour) we got this wrong and picked the wrong change but that was lesson learning.
McCaw was a huge key to the last RWCs because of his ability and leadership through admiration. Read is learning to be the leader we need through on field tactical changes and is hugely important. -
@canefan said in Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?:
@rotated We have shown our ability to win ugly two times this year against quality committed opposition (SA in Pretoria, and England).
I didn't take that away from the last test. Yes they won and it was ugly, but the final 20 minutes did not inspire any confidence that it was a controlled landing. The TJP chargedown and then subsequent effortless march up the field by England are a massive concern.
They have shown an undeniable resilience and self-belief this season which was a missing piece of the puzzle when the side got punched in the mouth anytime between '99-'03. It makes a huge difference when something inevitably goes against them in three play-off games.
@canefan said in Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?:
@rotated it is a difficult competition to win and should not be taken for granted.
We underestimate how difficult to win, but overestimate how hard it is to make the final if the cookie crumbles nicely. The key is to not trip over yourself on the way there and this side looks like they are capable of that.
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@sparky said in Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?:
Big surprise this year is Hansen sticking with SBW when week in, week out, he's the worst performing player in the Black Jersey.
They've stuck with Crotty as well and he came right.
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Firstly, I think we travel better than most other teams. Japan are not good enough that home advantage will get them further than the quarter-finals at best (would require a victory over either Scotland or Ireland in pool play as a minimum). So it will basically be a RWC on genuinely neutral territory, with Ireland probably likely to have the best travelling contingent. The grounds should be fast and dry if I'm not mistaken, no complaints there.
I think our pack is set in stone, with the exception of 6. We have to hope that Whitelock, and especially Retallick, remain fit. Read too. But we have a lot of decent propping options on both sides of the scrum, and decent hookers, although we can do better than Harris for the 3rd choice.
In the backs, if things continue as they are, I'm not ruling out TJP as the starting 9 with TTT on the bench. Smith has been pretty average all season. I don't think the selectors are going to do the "Richie 10/BB 15" thing, so it'll be Beauden at 10. You can lock in Rieko at 11, and BFA at either 14 or 15. We see whether the selectors persist with McKenzie at 15, but the back three is still not entirely settled.
It's somewhat concerning to see that we still can't settle on a midfield. I think you can lock Goodhue into 13, and then hope Crotty and ALB stay fit. Laumape will be there or thereabouts, and despite his age, you can't entirely rule out Nonu. SBW needs a massive Super Rugby season, otherwise I would just leave him out altogether.
I think this will be the closest RWC ever. Sides like SA & Argentina will freely choose their European stars, France is likely to be better than at present, and the Lions sides will all be there or thereabouts.
I think the fans who should be the most worried are the Aussies - it's hard to think of any overseas players who could come back and significantly improve their team. They will always be a chance, but they are probably the only main player who seem to be actively regressing.
I think we will have as good a chance as any other team, but I don't buy any stonewall favourites talk.
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@billy-tell said in Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?:
I think we will have a god a chance as any other team, but I don't buy any stonewall favourites talk.
Richie is secretly coming back?
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Not sure he is the worst performing player.
He seems to be playing a bit more structured sort of game well within himself, he will still attract defenders to stop off loads, but I'd like him to run harder and straight a bit more, he often is running across searching for space whereas his game is better suited to creating it by running straight and committing defenders.
Not sure if this is a deliberate tactic or just lack of confidence given his run of injuries, which is of greater concern IMO.
I think a number of ABs are playing within themselves and not as free as we have become accustomed, I hope this is a tactic as we are trying different things.
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@crucial Crotty has been superb in Super Rugby for a Crusaders team who have won the title two years in a row. Saturday he brought that skill and authority to the AB second five-eight position.
SBW has looked anything but a champion in his run outs with Blues. Just as poor for the ABs: 0 metres against South Africa, 0 metres against England.
Bye, bye, Sonny Bill.
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@sparky said in Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?:
@crucial Crotty has been superb in Super Rugby for a Crusaders team who have won the title two years in a row. Saturday he brought that skill and authority to the AB second five-eight position.
SBW has looked anything but a champion in his run outs with Blues. Just as poor for the ABs: 0 metres against South Africa, 0 metres against England.
Bye, bye, Sonny Bill.
Whilst the Canterbury bias is slightly ridiculous this post makes a lot of sense.
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@sparky said in Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?:
@crucial Crotty has been superb in Super Rugby for a Crusaders team who have won the title two years in a row. Saturday he brought that skill and authority to the AB second five-eight position.
SBW has looked anything but a champion in his run outs with Blues. Just as poor for the ABs: 0 metres against South Africa, 0 metres against England.
Bye, bye, Sonny Bill.
I note you don't mention Crottys test stats this year. They have been pretty poor. Missed tackles, 2 metres a game etc.
Just saying that the selectors stuck with him and he produced. -
@sparky said in Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?:
Big surprise this year is Hansen sticking with SBW when week in, week out, he's the worst performing player in the Black Jersey.
Really? Week in, week out?
That's funny because my recollection of this year has been SBW sitting on the sideline injured.
How many minutes has he actually played to be so poor? -
Interestingly SBW has had some decent games this year but they came when playing outside a 10 that wasn't Beauden Barrett. Blues v Crusaders and ABs v France test 3 spring to mind.
One positive for SBW is he might have a proper offseason coming up which he hasnt had for a few years.
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So after the last two tests who might we not be seeing in japan 2019 and who are the bolters (we probably don't have bolters now that we have such big squads).
I am picking G Bridge to have a cracking Super rugby season and to be right in the mix for our best 23.
SBW to maybe not even make the squad?
Franks also gone
Squire to be overtaken by S Barrett for 6TJP and TTT to be our half-backs
Crotty to get another head knock in Super Rugby and retire -
For what it is worth, my team for the RWC if everyone is fit:
Moody, Coles, Laulala, Retallick, S Whitelock, S Barrett, Cane/Savea, A Ioane, TTT, B Barrett, R Ioane, Laumape, Goodhue, Bridge, B Smith (c)
Moli, Taylor, Ofa T, Hemopo, Savea/Papali'i, TJP, Mo'unga, Nonu.
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@sparky said in Rugby World Cup 2019 - How are we tracking?:
For what it is worth, my team for the RWC if everyone is fit:
Moody, Coles, Laulala, Retallick, S Whitelock, S Barrett, Cane/Savea, A Ioane, TTT, B Barrett, R Ioane, Laumape, Goodhue, Bridge, B Smith (c)
Moli, Taylor, Ofa T, Hemopo, Savea/Papali'i, TJP, Mo'unga, Nonu.
So many questions. Smith captain over Whitelock? So much inexperience? Two guys better known for tighthead than loosehead on the bench?
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Assuming all our current lot are fit come RWC naming time, it is likely at 6, back up utility loosie and probably another wing/FB.
My thinking is someone like Papali'i could force his way into the 32?, similarly Bridge too, but barring injury there isnt likely to be too many changes from the squad that scored 25 points in 2 games v England & Ireland.
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@bones This game reminded me of Nantes 1986. The end of the road for some. Jack Goodhue in his first year of Test Rugby was the coolest head for the ABs yesterday. Ben Smith is a superb captain for the Highlanders so no concern there.
Time to blend young hungry talent with some experienced players. Like we did in 1987 and 2011. 2015 is not the only blueprint for success.
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@bones Fair enough. I thought Moli was outstanding for the Barbarians last year, but I doubt he'll be fit.
Karl Tu'inukuafe will probably be a wiser man next year for the lesson he was taught yesterday by the might Furlong. He can stay as a bench option.
