CWC Semi Final - Black Caps v India
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Our only chance.
It's a million-to-one chance, but it might just work ...
I refer you to Discworld and the inimitable Terry Pratchett...
(my bold)
"*... with the gods who like to play games, a million-to-one chance succeeds nine times out of ten.
Traditionally, one has to say "it's a million-to-one chance, but it might just work!" to invoke this rule. It also has to be exactly a million to one - none of this fiddly "995,351 to 1" business, or whatever other number you might end up with. So while the list of things that people have accomplished with million to one chances is quite impressive, the list of things they have failed to accomplish with odds a few percentage points off in either direction is probably a lot longer and involves a lot more fatalities*."
So how do we make it a million to one exactly?
Munroe to open...
Win the toss and bowl...
Guys?
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@booboo said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
@ACT-Crusader said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
The Blackcaps should be buoyed that other than a billion Indians, the rest of the cricketing world will be cheering for them 😀
Thing was, four years ago the rest of the cricketing world other than 30 million Strayans, but including one billion Indians were cheering for them. Didn't help then
Nah, I know plenty of Indians that like the Aussie team. They loved Gilchrist, Bing, Waugh etc and have them as their no.2.
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Their attack is better than ours. Their batting lineup is miles in front of ours. It would be an upset for the ages
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@mariner4life said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
Their attack is better than ours. Their batting lineup is miles in front of ours. It would be an upset for the ages
A million to one chance?
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@booboo said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
@mariner4life said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
Their attack is better than ours. Their batting lineup is miles in front of ours. It would be an upset for the ages
A million to one chance?
A billion to one chance
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Bollocks to all of this.
I don't fear India.
I fear Gary Stead.
Despite all evidence that Munro wasn't up to it and that most of his batting line-up was undercooked, he wasted the easy games trying to play Munro and the undercooked into form.
Here you go Gary. You see what happens. You see what happens, Gary? You see what happens Gary? This is what happens, Gary...
He should have stuck to my plan of playing Blundell as one of the few players with actual form, and opening with Latham as a batsman.
I'm a bit lost now - in that Latham has finally found a bit of form and could be pushed up to open - but, Blundell is now in the rusty camp. We're probably best to stick with Guppy and Nicholls and pray that they've had enough games to come good.
Answer against India is definitely not to bat first - they love chasing. Insert them and knock over Rohit and Virat cheaply and they're very vulnerable.
Strange as it might seem, the team I think we're least suited to beat is England. But, I'm sure all three teams would have been delighted to play us as semi-finalists. I reckon we're about 1/4 chance to win each of semi and final - so the odds on us are generous.
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@Chris-B said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
Strange as it might seem, the team I think we're least suited to beat is England. But, I'm sure all three teams would have been delighted to play us as semi-finalists. I reckon we're about 1/4 chance to win each of semi and final - so the odds on us are generous.
I don't even think we're as high as 25% given our record in Games That Matter against top opposition. And this is not a vintage team.
I reckon the indians could chase almost anything if they get going against our bowling attack. So I"m very much in the bowl first, and go down swinging camp
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@Chris-B said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
Answer against India is definitely not to bat first
We should absolutely bat first if Kane wins the toss. In almost every game where the pitch has played a factor it has always been the team batting second getting the worse track. Old Trafford has actually been one of the more reliable grounds but even then every team batting first has won at this tournament.
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@ACT-Crusader said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
@booboo said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
@mariner4life said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
Their attack is better than ours. Their batting lineup is miles in front of ours. It would be an upset for the ages
A million to one chance?
A billion to one chance
Well that's no good. Has to be exactly a million to one.
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@JK said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
hopefully a bit of luck go our way.
Yeah, a lot.
Against England, we lost Ferg, we lost the toss, Nicholls got a terrible ump decision (should have reviewed but shouldn't have been out in the first place), Guppy strangled down leg with a blinder of a catch, Kane finger tip run out... it really wasn't our day. Probably wouldn't have changed anything but hopefully things go in our favour on Tuesday.
Actually Nicholls was strangled in his only other dismissal too I think. Openers might need to practice their leg glances off the hip.
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You have to wonder if an earlier loss might have been a wake up call. Instead we got into the semis without needing to put in a complete performance. Once it was mathematically likely we would scrape in, it seems like they weren't able to play as if it was a must-win. If they can somehow put out a complete performance then I have no doubt with a bit of luck we can beat India. That means our openers actually do some damage, no silly run out by Kane and Ross, and some smart bowling tactics.
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Still better odds than the Avengers were facing... but I guess they had superpowers aye.
Guns blazing is the only way to go. Bowl like demons and bat like the Indian top order!
I'd keep Nichols and tell Guppy to drop the hammer, which may have been what he's already tried. But lets not dwell on the poor form leading up to the semi. We are in it and that gives us a chance, not matter how slim.
But if we don't have Ferg playing then things get particularly grim imo.
Day off on Wed so I'm aiming for an all-nighter... I hope it turns out that way!
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Drop Munro or keep him and hope he plays a blinder? I get the inclination to play him. We are up against the wall anyway so why not pick him because we need lots of luck to win. He could get a quick 50 and then we are in the game. The problem is picking Munro doesn't really qualify as a gamble. In 53 innings he has 8 50's in ODIs. These are: away to South Africa, away to Bangladesh, home to Bangladesh, away to India, home to Pakistan x2, home to Sri Lanka and neutral to Sri Lanka. Munro comes off so rarely against good pace attacks.
If we pick him there is probably less than a 10% chance he comes off. The TAB have us at $3.40 so we do have a chance. What we need is Kane and Boult to go well. We need to make life easy for them. Having Bumrah bowl Munro third ball won't do that for Kane.
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Indian Dad from school has just texted me to say he can get me a ticket if I want for not too bad a level. It will be sitting with his friends in some stand.
But I have Miss 5's year end Ballet recital tomorrow at 12.
I'm not sure if I'm gutted or not!
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@MajorRage said in Black Caps v India - Semi Final:
Indian Dad from school has just texted me to say he can get me a ticket if I want for not too bad a level. It will be sitting with his friends in some stand.
But I have Miss 5's year end Ballet recital tomorrow at 12.
I'm not sure if I'm gutted or not!
Well I'm sure she will perform well so no need to be gutted.
Enjoy the Cricket, Go the Black Caps!
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Rain!!? aw man. Would really suck for weather to mess with our semi. Especially after it was so obliging in washing out our last fixture with India and getting us across the line to the knock out stage.
