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Rancid Schnitzel

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="gollum" data-cid="551000" data-time="1452070292">
See, I had him pegged as a guy who would actually get enormous satisfaction out of knowing 10 non-mod posters would be slamming the quote key & screaming "Why can I not rebut!!!" 
The Germans tend to bend over backwards to be liberal & accomodating, then eventuually they reach a piont they are bent double & they sort of snap. See it when dealing with immigrants, Greece, Russia etc. 
I'm really looking forward to that snap point as its coming up & it will be hilarious.</blockquote>
 
Absolutely bang on. As history has unfortunately shown, Germans can be a rather obedient bunch. They still have an almost naive belief that their leaders always have their best interests at heart. The backlash will be a thing to behold. 
The cousin I mentioned above was one of the many who donated clothes and offered his services (he's a nurse). He wasn't needed because there were so many who were willing to help. He visited a couple of months ago and was farking spitting nails. People have quickly realised that most of these so-called refugees are neither fleeing for their lives nor are many of them even from Syria. Most are young men going around taking selfies everywhere. Most importantly, Germany simply doesn't have the infrastructure or resources to cope with such a massive influx. Merkel has completely lost the plot. 
My cousin is gay and one of the most liberal-minded people you will meet. If he's had a gutful then God knows what his less tolerant countrymen think. The thing is, Germany actually is pretty strict about granting permanent residency. What will happen when hundreds of thousands of young men are told to go home? Christ, what a clusterfark.

jegga

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Rancid Schnitzel" data-cid="551221" data-time="1452140047">Absolutely bang on. As history has unfortunately shown, Germans can be a rather obedient bunch. They still have an almost naive belief that their leaders always have their best interests at heart. The backlash will be a thing to behold. 
The cousin I mentioned above was one of the many who donated clothes and offered his services (he's a nurse). He wasn't needed because there were so many who were willing to help. He visited a couple of months ago and was farking spitting nails. People have quickly realised that most of these so-called refugees are neither fleeing for their lives nor are many of them even from Syria. Most are young men going around taking selfies everywhere. Most importantly, Germany simply doesn't have the infrastructure or resources to cope with such a massive influx. Merkel has completely lost the plot. 
My cousin is gay and one of the most liberal-minded people you will meet. If he's had a gutful then God knows what his less tolerant countrymen think. The thing is, Germany actually is pretty strict about granting permanent residency. What will happen when hundreds of thousands of young men are told to go home? Christ, what a clusterfark.</blockquote>
 
When the usual suspects were working themselves into a lather over the photo of the drowned toddler and demanding that we open our borders to these people there were stories appearing online about the behaviour of these refugees . I'd be interested in knowing how many were actually Syrian or even genuine refugees , a hell of a lot of them seemed to be men aged 20-40 if the photos of them are anything to go by. No surprises to see them behaving like creeps and groping women . I didn't understand Germany's attitude at the time it was very strange , the attitude of the leftards here was much the same . I get that they don't like Key and are looking for ways to make him look bad- that's politics , but surely there's a limit to how far you'll go to score points ? Why would you want to import ferals who see women as property and think nothing is wrong with child marriage?

Tim

Rancid Schnitzel

It's pretty insane, but I think Merkel saw it as a unique opportunity to finally rehabilitate Germany from the WW2 atrocities. I suspect she also had an eye on demographics and saw this as a chance to import a young labour force. 
As we can see, that's worked out real well.

Donsteppa

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Rancid Schnitzel" data-cid="551235" data-time="1452142485">I suspect she also had an eye on demographics and saw this as a chance to import a young labour force. </blockquote>
 
This. In an unusual manner, economic/labour considerations probably outweighed social integration/screening considerations for Merkel. (Plus the 24 hour news cycle to a small degree).

jegga

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Donsteppa" data-cid="551237" data-time="1452142718">This. In an unusual manner, economic/labour considerations probably outweighed social integration/screening considerations for Merkel. (Plus the 24 hour news cycle to a small degree).</blockquote>
 
If the new arrivals start forcing down wages Merkel is doubly screwed , I'd say it's unlikely they won't work for less than their german counterparts. Future generations are going to hate her.

NTA

Can't force wages below minimums, which was instituted in Deutschland as of 1st January last year (which is weird when you think about it - considering Australia and NZ have had it for over a century. Guess we take a lot of things for granted).
 
There is a school of thought that you need a certain percentage of minimum-wage population to keep a functioning society. Otherwise you either fall into the poor trap or the inflation trap.
 
Can't say I understand all of it, not really being any kind of economics whizz. But I look at house prices in Australia created by a bit of false economy in the real estate market and can see that you don't want to fuck with things on a big scale.
 
 
 
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="jegga" data-cid="551228" data-time="1452141216">
<div>
When the usual suspects were working themselves into a lather over the photo of the drowned toddler and demanding that we open our borders to these people there were stories appearing online about the behaviour of these refugees . I'd be interested in knowing how many were actually Syrian or even genuine refugees , a hell of a lot of them seemed to be men aged 20-40 if the photos of them are anything to go by. No surprises to see them behaving like creeps and groping women . I didn't understand Germany's attitude at the time it was very strange , the attitude of the leftards here was much the same . I get that they don't like Key and are looking for ways to make him look bad- that's politics , but surely there's a limit to how far you'll go to score points ? Why would you want to import ferals who see women as property and think nothing is wrong with child marriage?
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Those countries sharing a border with the shitfest in mainland Europe would likely need to break out their armed forces if they set up screening stations, and that is never a good look if you have to start shooting refugees. We get the luxury of a screening process and from the pictures I've seen (which are no solid indicator of the entire sample, of course) there are families in most of the 12,000 we've agreed to take. Canada too (though sucked in for the cold weather).
 
As to why there seem to be a lot of 20-40yo males - probably because they're of fighting age and would be enlisted at gunpoint for any of the many fucking nutjob militia running around in the desert on God's behalf. Plus they're physically more able to make the journey compared to women and children.

Donsteppa

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="jegga" data-cid="551239" data-time="1452143004">
If the new arrivals start forcing down wages Merkel is doubly screwed , I'd say it's unlikely they won't work for less than their german counterparts. Future generations are going to hate her.</blockquote>
 
In the short run, I reckon there's a lot still to play out over the next twelve months as to how many people are eventually taken, what length of visa/residency they are on, whether some refugees/migrants/opportunists* move on or get deported, etc, etc before we can predict her being generationally hated. I think there will be some second guessing going on at the mo. 
Mid-run, if German demographics are as 'bad' as some of the other Western European nations/Japan, and if (a big if) they've got their numbers and timing right (setting aside settlement and integration for the moment) at worst it'll keep wages the same/avoid upward wage inflation.

despite the way the public debate got broadly polarised between 'let them all in, they're refugees' vs 'close the borders, they're all opportunists', all three groups will be in the mix in some number. Goodness knows how (short of gunpoint) but Europe somehow needed to buy time to do some filtering of the genuine/deserving from... the others...

Tim

Some wages might go up in the short term, due to government spending driven increased demand. Of course, the German government could've gotten a similar effect from increasing spending on German citizens ...

Rancid Schnitzel

Nick have you ever wondered why these people are galloping right through Eastern Europe and even Denmark and going straight for countries like Germany, Sweden and Norway that: (a)will let them stay (2) give them free shit? Actually I just answered that for you. As the Indonesia President once said, "Take the sugar off the table". 
With regard to work, the big question is what work these young men can actually do. They don't speak German and you have to study for years to be qualified for anything in Germany. They could do the shit jobs, but will they want to when the unemployment benefits are so generous? I've also read that even Syrians in Syria aren't keen to do the shit jobs. So I guess while you have a potential pool of labour, it appears to be largely composed of unskilled men who don't speak the language. Not exactly ideal.

Rancid Schnitzel

Apologies Nick, I misread your post. Disregard.

jegga

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="NTA" data-cid="551247" data-time="1452143429">Can't force wages below minimums, which was instituted in Deutschland as of 1st January last year (which is weird when you think about it - considering Australia and NZ have had it for over a century. Guess we take a lot of things for granted). 
 
There is a school of thought that you need a certain percentage of minimum-wage population to keep a functioning society. Otherwise you either fall into the poor trap or the inflation trap. 
 
Can't say I understand all of it, not really being any kind of economics whizz. But I look at house prices in Australia created by a bit of false economy in the real estate market and can see that you don't want to fuck with things on a big scale. 
 
 
 
 
Those countries sharing a border with the shitfest in mainland Europe would likely need to break out their armed forces if they set up screening stations, and that is never a good look if you have to start shooting refugees. We get the luxury of a screening process and from the pictures I've seen (which are no solid indicator of the entire sample, of course) there are families in most of the 12,000 we've agreed to take. Canada too (though sucked in for the cold weather). 
 
As to why there seem to be a lot of 20-40yo males - probably because they're of fighting age and would be enlisted at gunpoint for any of the many fucking nutjob militia running around in the desert on God's behalf. Plus they're physically more able to make the journey compared to women and children.</blockquote>
 
I never said they'll work for less than the minimum wage but if they can be arsed working they'll be competing for the smelliest noisiest or most soul destroying jobs with Germans so it's the poor that'll get shafted. 
I'm sure a fair few of the men were trying to avoid fighting , I'm equally sure a decent amount of them thought " western women dress like hookers and are easy, I want some of that" the fact that they seem to be able to organise gropefests is pretty good proof of that. Living in a country where there's little nightlife that compare to a german city, the women never show any skin and the Germans will give you a benefit and a place to live it probably sounds really good to your average Arab feral to make the move .

antipodean

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Rancid Schnitzel" data-cid="551235" data-time="1452142485">
<div>
It's pretty insane, but I think Merkel saw it as a unique opportunity to finally rehabilitate Germany from the WW2 atrocities. I suspect she also had an eye on demographics and saw this as a chance to import a young labour force. 
As we can see, that's worked out real well.
</div>
</blockquote>
 
They'd already learnt that lesson from importing Turks.

mariner4life

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="antipodean" data-cid="551264" data-time="1452145302">
<div>
They'd already learnt that lesson from importing Turks.
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</blockquote>
of course, the import of Turks has resulted in the ability to get a fucking unreal kebab while walking home bent up after Oktoberfest in Munich.

gollum

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Donsteppa" data-cid="551251" data-time="1452143895">
<div>

Mid-run, if German demographics are as 'bad' as some of the other Western European nations/Japan, and if (a big if) they've got their numbers and timing right (setting aside settlement and integration for the moment) at worst it'll keep wages the same/avoid upward wage inflation. 
.
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Re that arguement, what you REALLY want to import is breeding age women - ideally ones who are a bit submissive & buy the idea that they should not have careers & should stay home & raise 4 kids. And kids who are young enough to educate & become productive. So in that regard there are a LOT of Syrians you could bring in & it'd be great. You'd have a short term drain as they don't earn, but a long term positive as the population gets a boost.
 
You very much dont want the old, or men.
 
The "we are aging so need imigrants!" arguement only really works if the immigrants either earn enough to pay good amounts of tax or breed heavily and assimilate to provide a boost to future tax payers. The last thing you want are single low skilled men who pay almost no tax and send what money they do make home to their family.
 
The Turks sort of worked in that Germany was in a building boom so needed low skilled labourl & more or less intergrated - plus the demographic issue was not on the radar, tho' a lot of cash was sent home. But now with robotics & so on there aren't thousands of low paid unskilled labouring jobs, or if there are the Romanians & Bulgarians are already doing them.

Donsteppa

And/or,

highly skilled (younger) men in key labour market areas, or
wealthy (younger) individuals likely to invest in job/wealth creation activities, or
students studying higher end courses, ideally in areas of current/future skill shortage 
I haven't dug into the trends yet, but they were never going to get many in the latter two categories, and have lucked out on the former if comments so far in the thread are on the mark. 
I hadn't realised this about their status in Germany though: <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/11/06/report-german-government-downgrade-syrians-can-stay-2-years-no-family-reunions/'>http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/11/06/report-german-government-downgrade-syrians-can-stay-2-years-no-family-reunions/</a> - many more instances like Cologne, and things will get tighter again. They seem to have given themselves some wriggle room (or at least more than I'd realised...)

Donsteppa

By contrast, the NZ refugee intake get permanent residence on arrival: <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.refugeehealth.govt.nz/about-us/refugees-and-asylum-seekers-in-new-zealand">http://www.refugeehealth.govt.nz/about-us/refugees-and-asylum-seekers-in-new-zealand</a> though based on smaller numbers <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.immigration.govt.nz/migrant/general/generalinformation/refugee-protection/">http://www.immigration.govt.nz/migrant/general/generalinformation/refugee-protection/</a>

Rembrandt

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="antipodean" data-cid="551139" data-time="1452127631">
Time for the Germans to throw off the guilt of 70 years ago.</blockquote>

Catogrande

The volte-face of the Germans in downgrading the status of the Syrian refugees will likely turn out to be irrelevant. So they have to leave after two years instead of three? Where are they going to go? How are they going to be transported? (Please no-one say cattle trucks). How will they all be found and identified? The logistics are enormous. It took an awful lot of organisation in letting them in when both sides were working to the same aim - what chance do you give it when one side are dead set against it?
 
Three years was bollocks anyway, 2 years is just further bollocks with a sugar coating for the German electorate. The family reunion thing might (small might) have some traction, but you can bet your last penny that any attempts to block such things will be held up as a transgression of their human rights etc etc.
 
Nope. They are fucked on this one.

gollum

UK has (apparently) 40,000 failed asylym seekers that were told to leave but haven't & now no one actually knows where they are... once you are in you are in.
 
Plus if you fail you just go try knock someone up, then you cannot be deported due to EU humans rights laws.
 
I guess that is an upside sort of. Sure 40,000 very dodgey asylum seekers are loose in the UK not working nor paying taxes, but 40,000 fatties & 39 year old chicks are getting that shot at a baby they'd never normally have. So silver lining there.

The Silver Fern

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