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But he backed Brexit so he's fair game?
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@victor-meldrew said in Brexit:
But he backed Brexit so he's fair game?
In the eyes of the media that is probably worse but for me the mullet is unforgivable.
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@majorrage said in Brexit:
page 48, bottom right corner I bet ... Fucking media.
Bottom right column third page of business section. Bit like BBC's 'apology' to Dyson.
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Fascinating little debate going on here at the moment.
Due to a few different factors (pandemic, Brexit mainly) there are a few skills shortages in the country. Truck (HGV) driving is probably the biggest one, but also shortages in a lot of the lesser skilled sectors - fruit picking, catering/hospitality, security, warehouse work. I've also been reading that there is a shortage in some finance / accounting work as well, but I'm not inclined to believe that. In turn, this is now pushing wages up in some of those lesser skilled jobs. Thus, you have:
Remain: Brexit, we fucking told you it was a bad idea, this is exactly what we said would happen, this country is fucked, Johnson is a liar and you fell for it, you utter utter morons!
Leave: Um, this is exactly what we voted for. Wages have been repressed at the lower end for years due to uncontrolled immigrants doing these jobs, and now its time for the rate paid for these to catch up.
Left: Wage growth is only going to push prices up and this will obviously hit those on the lower incomes the most. This is such a destructive thing to happen for these families and its going to make it even harder for them when their situation is almost impossible as it is.
Right: They are the ones getting the pay rises, no? If they aren't then perhaps they should look to pick up some of this lucrative work. By the way, we keep hearing about the illegal migrant crisis, so instead of these guys being a drain, why don't we make them work in some of these jobs and actually earn money / contribute to the economy.
It's fascinating stuff & Brexit is proving to be quite the social experiment most people thought it would be.
@Victor-Meldrew quite interested in your thoughts on this one!
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@majorrage said in Brexit:
Fascinating little debate going on here at the moment.
Due to a few different factors (pandemic, Brexit mainly) there are a few skills shortages in the country. Truck (HGV) driving is probably the biggest one, but also shortages in a lot of the lesser skilled sectors - fruit picking, catering/hospitality, security, warehouse work. I've also been reading that there is a shortage in some finance / accounting work as well, but I'm not inclined to believe that. In turn, this is now pushing wages up in some of those lesser skilled jobs. Thus, you have:
Remain: Brexit, we fucking told you it was a bad idea, this is exactly what we said would happen, this country is fucked, Johnson is a liar and you fell for it, you utter utter morons!
Leave: Um, this is exactly what we voted for. Wages have been repressed at the lower end for years due to uncontrolled immigrants doing these jobs, and now its time for the rate paid for these to catch up.
Left: Wage growth is only going to push prices up and this will obviously hit those on the lower incomes the most. This is such a destructive thing to happen for these families and its going to make it even harder for them when their situation is almost impossible as it is.
Right: They are the ones getting the pay rises, no? If they aren't then perhaps they should look to pick up some of this lucrative work. By the way, we keep hearing about the illegal migrant crisis, so instead of these guys being a drain, why don't we make them work in some of these jobs and actually earn money / contribute to the economy.
It's fascinating stuff & Brexit is proving to be quite the social experiment most people thought it would be.
@Victor-Meldrew quite interested in your thoughts on this one!
You forgot one important aspect about the left leaning remainers, they also want to remain within a couple of miles from where they were born and expect the jobs to come to them
Kent may as well be in Australia as far as they are concerned
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@majorrage said in Brexit:
Fascinating little debate going on here at the moment.
Due to a few different factors (pandemic, Brexit mainly) there are a few skills shortages in the country. Truck (HGV) driving is probably the biggest one, but also shortages in a lot of the lesser skilled sectors - fruit picking, catering/hospitality, security, warehouse work. I've also been reading that there is a shortage in some finance / accounting work as well, but I'm not inclined to believe that. In turn, this is now pushing wages up in some of those lesser skilled jobs. Thus, you have:
Remain: Brexit, we fucking told you it was a bad idea, this is exactly what we said would happen, this country is fucked, Johnson is a liar and you fell for it, you utter utter morons!
Leave: Um, this is exactly what we voted for. Wages have been repressed at the lower end for years due to uncontrolled immigrants doing these jobs, and now its time for the rate paid for these to catch up.
Left: Wage growth is only going to push prices up and this will obviously hit those on the lower incomes the most. This is such a destructive thing to happen for these families and its going to make it even harder for them when their situation is almost impossible as it is.
Right: They are the ones getting the pay rises, no? If they aren't then perhaps they should look to pick up some of this lucrative work. By the way, we keep hearing about the illegal migrant crisis, so instead of these guys being a drain, why don't we make them work in some of these jobs and actually earn money / contribute to the economy.
It's fascinating stuff & Brexit is proving to be quite the social experiment most people thought it would be.
@Victor-Meldrew quite interested in your thoughts on this one!
i apologise in advance for the long-ish reply..
I wonder if the terms Left and Right and Remain or Leave are the best way to describe what seems to me to be the two camps in the UK.
Obvious generalisation, but seems to me the division is between metriopolitan/service industy/media/woke/degree-educated/cosmopolitan/global outlook/transferable skills v local community/works with hands/local root/pride in cultural identity/just get on with life types. The former has lots of money, ambition & power compared to the latter, but the latter has a much clearer sense of identity, values & community. Call them Metros and Provincials.
The former have done well out of the EU, for the latter it's been a bit of a disaster. Not only have they seen jobs disappear to cheaper parts of the EU, but were called racist and xenophobic for pointing out the impact of Eastern European immigration on jobs and local communities - as Gordon Brown showed. Fast forward to Brexit referendum and the 2019 GE and the Metros were shocked to realise they might have the wealth, but they don't have the power any more - and I sense they don't quite know how to handle it. Smart politicians are courting the Provincials, others, like Starmer, just don't know how to react. Difficult to appeal to people you've spent years trying to subvert their decision to leave the EU
Now the cheap labour taps have been turned off, many business will need to respond and stop taking local people for granted and start valuing them - investing in their skills and getting the best out of what has become an expensive resource. That could be a good thing for all in breaking down income barriers and pushing up the UK's appalling productivity and make everyone richer. Big opportunity to level things up, break down regional barriers and make parts of the North as rich and productive as London.
On the other hand, you could get the friction between the two groups growing - industrial action, increased division, culture wars, political violence.
Think there will a bit of friction and uncertainty, but if you look at history, the UK has a pretty good record of coming to pragmatic and sensible solutions which meets everyone's needs
Finally.. Perhaps Brexit isn't a social experiment, but the ending of one? Perhaps it started under Blair where the Metros were meant to provide the wealth to pay for keeping the Provincials happily hidden away and on benefits. But I'm probably being cynical...
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@victor-meldrew as I said, quite interested in what you had to say and you didn’t let me down.
Great post.
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@victor-meldrew said in Brexit:
@majorrage said in Brexit:
Fascinating little debate going on here at the moment.
Due to a few different factors (pandemic, Brexit mainly) there are a few skills shortages in the country. Truck (HGV) driving is probably the biggest one, but also shortages in a lot of the lesser skilled sectors - fruit picking, catering/hospitality, security, warehouse work. I've also been reading that there is a shortage in some finance / accounting work as well, but I'm not inclined to believe that. In turn, this is now pushing wages up in some of those lesser skilled jobs. Thus, you have:
Remain: Brexit, we fucking told you it was a bad idea, this is exactly what we said would happen, this country is fucked, Johnson is a liar and you fell for it, you utter utter morons!
Leave: Um, this is exactly what we voted for. Wages have been repressed at the lower end for years due to uncontrolled immigrants doing these jobs, and now its time for the rate paid for these to catch up.
Left: Wage growth is only going to push prices up and this will obviously hit those on the lower incomes the most. This is such a destructive thing to happen for these families and its going to make it even harder for them when their situation is almost impossible as it is.
Right: They are the ones getting the pay rises, no? If they aren't then perhaps they should look to pick up some of this lucrative work. By the way, we keep hearing about the illegal migrant crisis, so instead of these guys being a drain, why don't we make them work in some of these jobs and actually earn money / contribute to the economy.
It's fascinating stuff & Brexit is proving to be quite the social experiment most people thought it would be.
@Victor-Meldrew quite interested in your thoughts on this one!
i apologise in advance for the long-ish reply..
I wonder if the terms Left and Right and Remain or Leave are the best way to describe what seems to me to be the two camps in the UK.
Obvious generalisation, but seems to me the division is between metriopolitan/service industy/media/woke/degree-educated/cosmopolitan/global outlook/transferable skills v local community/works with hands/local root/pride in cultural identity/just get on with life types. The former has lots of money, ambition & power compared to the latter, but the latter has a much clearer sense of identity, values & community. Call them Metros and Provincials.
The former have done well out of the EU, for the latter it's been a bit of a disaster. Not only have they seen jobs disappear to cheaper parts of the EU, but were called racist and xenophobic for pointing out the impact of Eastern European immigration on jobs and local communities - as Gordon Brown showed. Fast forward to Brexit referendum and the 2019 GE and the Metros were shocked to realise they might have the wealth, but they don't have the power any more - and I sense they don't quite know how to handle it. Smart politicians are courting the Provincials, others, like Starmer, just don't know how to react. Difficult to appeal to people you've spent years trying to subvert their decision to leave the EU
Now the cheap labour taps have been turned off, many business will need to respond and stop taking local people for granted and start valuing them - investing in their skills and getting the best out of what has become an expensive resource. That could be a good thing for all in breaking down income barriers and pushing up the UK's appalling productivity and make everyone richer. Big opportunity to level things up, break down regional barriers and make parts of the North as rich and productive as London.
On the other hand, you could get the friction between the two groups growing - industrial action, increased division, culture wars, political violence.
Think there will a bit of friction and uncertainty, but if you look at history, the UK has a pretty good record of coming to pragmatic and sensible solutions which meets everyone's needs
Finally.. Perhaps Brexit isn't a social experiment, but the ending of one? Perhaps it started under Blair where the Metros were meant to provide the wealth to pay for keeping the Provincials happily hidden away and on benefits. But I'm probably being cynical...
That is fantastically written and I agree with every word - especially the last part!
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
That is certainly trade orthodoxy. But if such agreements lead to substantial job losses as e.g. Chinese imports replace Northern jobs, the net is more of the population reliant on social welfare.
It's going to happen anyway, so be prepared to compete . No point in protecting all those highly paid jobs producing those shiny BMW's when your export markets slap quotas on your goods in retaliation.
At the risk of offending the purists, I see no point in facilitating the migration of manufacturing offshore when the crucial overseas competitive advantage is lower/no environmental/labour conditions/social welfare standards. So if the UK has sensible standards in these areas, and its cost of power is competitive, then the labour content of manufacture is going to have to be very high to outweigh appropriate tariffs and the cost of transport from, say, the Far East.
WTO tariffs are inadequate to compensate, so China being admitted was a massive con job. Carbon border tax would be a way of rasing tariffs towards reasonable levels.
A key question becomes the cost of labour. Here things become quite distorted by the minimum wage question. UK has made a big thing of the virtue of setting level for these ever higher, but if that prices manufacture out IMO such minima do more harm than good. Even then, EU and UK cheat by allowing Eastern Europeans in and allowing practices which usurp the regulation, albeit in quite limited areas. Which to me is just a tacit admission the the levels are wrong, even if the concept itself has merit.
Trivial example, maybe, by it seems wholly incoherent to pursue policies which result in chocolate good manufacture in UK to be unable to compete viably with mass production in China and shipping across to the other side of the world. To me bonkers.
As a consequence, I'm not opposed to tariffs being set at a level which protects economies with decent social welfare, environmental and labour laws. WTO levels too low. I'm all for carbon border taxes.
Needs to be managed carefully, for sure. A short-term measure while you address the need to become competitive.
I think it's more fundamental. For now China relies on coal power to produce a huge amount of its energy. The alternatives are more expensive. CBT ought to be retained until and unless China moves to greener energy sources. BTW no idea how anyone can ever verify compliance.
There's very, very few leading edge industries in the EU compared to the US, China or Japan.
Absolutely right.
Now you're taking!
They're returning? And critics said they wouldn't have a bar of it.
Ok, coat time. -
@nostrildamus In reality there is probably an even number of return / leave companies / businesses as with any normal business cycle.
However, you have the remain only championing the leavers, and the leave campaign only championing the returnee's.
There will be strong division in this country until at least Boris is gone. There are parallels with Trump in that people hate everything he says/does because of who he is, not because of what he's saying.
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@victor-meldrew said in Brexit:
@majorrage said in Brexit:
Fascinating little debate going on here at the moment.
Due to a few different factors (pandemic, Brexit mainly) there are a few skills shortages in the country. Truck (HGV) driving is probably the biggest one, but also shortages in a lot of the lesser skilled sectors - fruit picking, catering/hospitality, security, warehouse work. I've also been reading that there is a shortage in some finance / accounting work as well, but I'm not inclined to believe that. In turn, this is now pushing wages up in some of those lesser skilled jobs. Thus, you have:
Remain: Brexit, we fucking told you it was a bad idea, this is exactly what we said would happen, this country is fucked, Johnson is a liar and you fell for it, you utter utter morons!
Leave: Um, this is exactly what we voted for. Wages have been repressed at the lower end for years due to uncontrolled immigrants doing these jobs, and now its time for the rate paid for these to catch up.
Left: Wage growth is only going to push prices up and this will obviously hit those on the lower incomes the most. This is such a destructive thing to happen for these families and its going to make it even harder for them when their situation is almost impossible as it is.
Right: They are the ones getting the pay rises, no? If they aren't then perhaps they should look to pick up some of this lucrative work. By the way, we keep hearing about the illegal migrant crisis, so instead of these guys being a drain, why don't we make them work in some of these jobs and actually earn money / contribute to the economy.
It's fascinating stuff & Brexit is proving to be quite the social experiment most people thought it would be.
@Victor-Meldrew quite interested in your thoughts on this one!
i apologise in advance for the long-ish reply..
I wonder if the terms Left and Right and Remain or Leave are the best way to describe what seems to me to be the two camps in the UK.
Obvious generalisation, but seems to me the division is between metriopolitan/service industy/media/woke/degree-educated/cosmopolitan/global outlook/transferable skills v local community/works with hands/local root/pride in cultural identity/just get on with life types. The former has lots of money, ambition & power compared to the latter, but the latter has a much clearer sense of identity, values & community. Call them Metros and Provincials.
The former have done well out of the EU, for the latter it's been a bit of a disaster. Not only have they seen jobs disappear to cheaper parts of the EU, but were called racist and xenophobic for pointing out the impact of Eastern European immigration on jobs and local communities - as Gordon Brown showed. Fast forward to Brexit referendum and the 2019 GE and the Metros were shocked to realise they might have the wealth, but they don't have the power any more - and I sense they don't quite know how to handle it. Smart politicians are courting the Provincials, others, like Starmer, just don't know how to react. Difficult to appeal to people you've spent years trying to subvert their decision to leave the EU
Now the cheap labour taps have been turned off, many business will need to respond and stop taking local people for granted and start valuing them - investing in their skills and getting the best out of what has become an expensive resource. That could be a good thing for all in breaking down income barriers and pushing up the UK's appalling productivity and make everyone richer. Big opportunity to level things up, break down regional barriers and make parts of the North as rich and productive as London.
On the other hand, you could get the friction between the two groups growing - industrial action, increased division, culture wars, political violence.
Think there will a bit of friction and uncertainty, but if you look at history, the UK has a pretty good record of coming to pragmatic and sensible solutions which meets everyone's needs
Finally.. Perhaps Brexit isn't a social experiment, but the ending of one? Perhaps it started under Blair where the Metros were meant to provide the wealth to pay for keeping the Provincials happily hidden away and on benefits. But I'm probably being cynical...
That is fantastically written and I agree with every word - especially the last part!
Very simplistic IMO. (Although to be fair every argument is simplistic because it's such a massively complex subject).
Correlation doesn't imply causation.
Over the last few decades, while Britian was in the EU, the Metros have done much better than the Provincials. But that's true of just about every country in the developed world (possibly the whole world).
Globalisation happened, and cheaper labour became accessible. Either cheaper labour comes into your country to make the goods if your immigration settings allow it, or cheaper labour overseas means that your companies choose to make goods there and import them instead.
And automation happened, so the relative value of manual work has decreased massively.
These things didn't happen because the UK was in the EU.
For an unskilled workforce, in the past being located near the consumer was a big advantage, because of the cost of shipping raw materials and finished goods. These days it counts for very little, because with automation and global shipping it's cheaper to import. And because the global economy is much more about services then manufacturing, compared to the past.
Cutting off cheap labour, and even enforcing tariffs, is not going to bring back a manufacturing boom. Different skills are needed for a different economic era. I just wish we'd put half the effort into training that we have into arguing about the EU.
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@gibbonrib said in Brexit:
@victor-meldrew said in Brexit:
@majorrage said in Brexit:
Fascinating little debate going on here at the moment.
Due to a few different factors (pandemic, Brexit mainly) there are a few skills shortages in the country. Truck (HGV) driving is probably the biggest one, but also shortages in a lot of the lesser skilled sectors - fruit picking, catering/hospitality, security, warehouse work. I've also been reading that there is a shortage in some finance / accounting work as well, but I'm not inclined to believe that. In turn, this is now pushing wages up in some of those lesser skilled jobs. Thus, you have:
Remain: Brexit, we fucking told you it was a bad idea, this is exactly what we said would happen, this country is fucked, Johnson is a liar and you fell for it, you utter utter morons!
Leave: Um, this is exactly what we voted for. Wages have been repressed at the lower end for years due to uncontrolled immigrants doing these jobs, and now its time for the rate paid for these to catch up.
Left: Wage growth is only going to push prices up and this will obviously hit those on the lower incomes the most. This is such a destructive thing to happen for these families and its going to make it even harder for them when their situation is almost impossible as it is.
Right: They are the ones getting the pay rises, no? If they aren't then perhaps they should look to pick up some of this lucrative work. By the way, we keep hearing about the illegal migrant crisis, so instead of these guys being a drain, why don't we make them work in some of these jobs and actually earn money / contribute to the economy.
It's fascinating stuff & Brexit is proving to be quite the social experiment most people thought it would be.
@Victor-Meldrew quite interested in your thoughts on this one!
i apologise in advance for the long-ish reply..
I wonder if the terms Left and Right and Remain or Leave are the best way to describe what seems to me to be the two camps in the UK.
Obvious generalisation, but seems to me the division is between metriopolitan/service industy/media/woke/degree-educated/cosmopolitan/global outlook/transferable skills v local community/works with hands/local root/pride in cultural identity/just get on with life types. The former has lots of money, ambition & power compared to the latter, but the latter has a much clearer sense of identity, values & community. Call them Metros and Provincials.
The former have done well out of the EU, for the latter it's been a bit of a disaster. Not only have they seen jobs disappear to cheaper parts of the EU, but were called racist and xenophobic for pointing out the impact of Eastern European immigration on jobs and local communities - as Gordon Brown showed. Fast forward to Brexit referendum and the 2019 GE and the Metros were shocked to realise they might have the wealth, but they don't have the power any more - and I sense they don't quite know how to handle it. Smart politicians are courting the Provincials, others, like Starmer, just don't know how to react. Difficult to appeal to people you've spent years trying to subvert their decision to leave the EU
Now the cheap labour taps have been turned off, many business will need to respond and stop taking local people for granted and start valuing them - investing in their skills and getting the best out of what has become an expensive resource. That could be a good thing for all in breaking down income barriers and pushing up the UK's appalling productivity and make everyone richer. Big opportunity to level things up, break down regional barriers and make parts of the North as rich and productive as London.
On the other hand, you could get the friction between the two groups growing - industrial action, increased division, culture wars, political violence.
Think there will a bit of friction and uncertainty, but if you look at history, the UK has a pretty good record of coming to pragmatic and sensible solutions which meets everyone's needs
Finally.. Perhaps Brexit isn't a social experiment, but the ending of one? Perhaps it started under Blair where the Metros were meant to provide the wealth to pay for keeping the Provincials happily hidden away and on benefits. But I'm probably being cynical...
That is fantastically written and I agree with every word - especially the last part!
Very simplistic IMO.
This is the Fern....
Over the last few decades, while Britian was in the EU, the Metros have done much better than the Provincials. But that's true of just about every country in the developed world (possibly the whole world).
Yep, the Uk isn't unique...
Globalisation happened, and cheaper labour became accessible. Either cheaper labour comes into your country to make the goods if your immigration settings allow it, or cheaper labour overseas means that your companies choose to make goods there and import them instead.
And automation happened, so the relative value of manual work has decreased massively.
....but there is a strong argument that as the UK economy is/was more services based where jobs are easier to move, spoke the global language and the manufacturing more niche and high-value, it impacted the UK economy far more.
These things didn't happen because the UK was in the EU.
No. But the impact of EU freedom of movement from the newly-joined Eastern Europe states exacerbated the factors you mention and had a much bigger impact on the UK. UK employers were advertising job vacancies in Poland only or putting Polish or Romanian languages as a requirement in the job description.
Other EU countries delayed freedom of movement from Eastern Europe but Blair enthusiastically pushed for it knowing how much money it would make for businesses in London despite the impact it would have on working class communities. Can't think why....
For an unskilled workforce, in the past being located near the consumer was a big advantage, because of the cost of shipping raw materials and finished goods. These days it counts for very little, because with automation and global shipping it's cheaper to import. And because the global economy is much more about services then manufacturing, compared to the past.
Again I agree. But it begs the question as to why, when the factors you mention should have had less of an impact services-based economy (and a successful one) like the UK, such a huge division seems to have grown between the two groups.
Cutting off cheap labour, and even enforcing tariffs, is not going to bring back a manufacturing boom. Different skills are needed for a different economic era.
Agreed, but cutting off cheap labour and enforcing tariffs has been EU policy for decades. And haven't Metros/Remainers been telling Provincials/Leavers for years this is a great thing as it protects their jobs and that's why their vote to leave should be ignored?
I just wish we'd put half the effort into training that we have into arguing about the EU.
True. But it isn't just training, economics, labour mobility or productivity - culture and values probably have as big as, if not bigger, impact on what is a pretty clear divide. Things like long-term thinking, social costs (which are real) not being factored into business decisions, culture-blindness and not taking the time to understand the people you employ, have a huge impact.
In 2008/9 one of my clients (Life Insurance) re-engineered their Service Centres that looked after the wholesale/IFA market. It included spending £5k per customer agent on training over 2 years with the result it was cheaper to service their customers out of Sheffield than Mumbai. Big success I'd say. A year later they looked at replacing the employees with an operation in East Anglia staffed by Poles and Hungarians.....
At least now there's a chance our world-class FTSE directors will be able to focus on the un-tapped potential in the UK.
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@majorrage said in Brexit:
@nostrildamus In reality there is probably an even number of return / leave companies / businesses as with any normal business cycle.
However, you have the remain only championing the leavers, and the leave campaign only championing the returnee's.
There will be strong division in this country until at least Boris is gone. There are parallels with Trump in that people hate everything he says/does because of who he is, not because of what he's saying.
Looking at it from afar, Boris has the personality politics down pat, but he seemed to get rid of some of the more talented people in his cabinet. I hope they replace him with someone who has more attention span and judgement.
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@victor-meldrew said in Brexit:
@majorrage said in Brexit:
Fascinating little debate going on here at the moment.
Due to a few different factors (pandemic, Brexit mainly) there are a few skills shortages in the country. Truck (HGV) driving is probably the biggest one, but also shortages in a lot of the lesser skilled sectors - fruit picking, catering/hospitality, security, warehouse work. I've also been reading that there is a shortage in some finance / accounting work as well, but I'm not inclined to believe that. In turn, this is now pushing wages up in some of those lesser skilled jobs. Thus, you have:
Remain: Brexit, we fucking told you it was a bad idea, this is exactly what we said would happen, this country is fucked, Johnson is a liar and you fell for it, you utter utter morons!
Leave: Um, this is exactly what we voted for. Wages have been repressed at the lower end for years due to uncontrolled immigrants doing these jobs, and now its time for the rate paid for these to catch up.
Left: Wage growth is only going to push prices up and this will obviously hit those on the lower incomes the most. This is such a destructive thing to happen for these families and its going to make it even harder for them when their situation is almost impossible as it is.
Right: They are the ones getting the pay rises, no? If they aren't then perhaps they should look to pick up some of this lucrative work. By the way, we keep hearing about the illegal migrant crisis, so instead of these guys being a drain, why don't we make them work in some of these jobs and actually earn money / contribute to the economy.
It's fascinating stuff & Brexit is proving to be quite the social experiment most people thought it would be.
@Victor-Meldrew quite interested in your thoughts on this one!
i apologise in advance for the long-ish reply..
I wonder if the terms Left and Right and Remain or Leave are the best way to describe what seems to me to be the two camps in the UK.
Obvious generalisation, but seems to me the division is between metriopolitan/service industy/media/woke/degree-educated/cosmopolitan/global outlook/transferable skills v local community/works with hands/local root/pride in cultural identity/just get on with life types. The former has lots of money, ambition & power compared to the latter, but the latter has a much clearer sense of identity, values & community. Call them Metros and Provincials.
The former have done well out of the EU, for the latter it's been a bit of a disaster. Not only have they seen jobs disappear to cheaper parts of the EU, but were called racist and xenophobic for pointing out the impact of Eastern European immigration on jobs and local communities - as Gordon Brown showed. Fast forward to Brexit referendum and the 2019 GE and the Metros were shocked to realise they might have the wealth, but they don't have the power any more - and I sense they don't quite know how to handle it. Smart politicians are courting the Provincials, others, like Starmer, just don't know how to react. Difficult to appeal to people you've spent years trying to subvert their decision to leave the EU
Now the cheap labour taps have been turned off, many business will need to respond and stop taking local people for granted and start valuing them - investing in their skills and getting the best out of what has become an expensive resource. That could be a good thing for all in breaking down income barriers and pushing up the UK's appalling productivity and make everyone richer. Big opportunity to level things up, break down regional barriers and make parts of the North as rich and productive as London.
On the other hand, you could get the friction between the two groups growing - industrial action, increased division, culture wars, political violence.
Think there will a bit of friction and uncertainty, but if you look at history, the UK has a pretty good record of coming to pragmatic and sensible solutions which meets everyone's needs
Finally.. Perhaps Brexit isn't a social experiment, but the ending of one? Perhaps it started under Blair where the Metros were meant to provide the wealth to pay for keeping the Provincials happily hidden away and on benefits. But I'm probably being cynical...
thanks for that. Does your distinction work for Scotland?
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@nostrildamus said in Brexit:
thanks for that. Does your distinction work for Scotland?
Dunno. Doesn't the Independence debate cloud everything there?
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@victor-meldrew said in Brexit:
@nostrildamus said in Brexit:
thanks for that. Does your distinction work for Scotland?
Dunno. Doesn't the Independence debate cloud everything there?
Probably, was just interested in if the metro/provincial distinction applied.
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@nostrildamus said in Brexit:
I hope they replace him with someone who has more attention span and judgement.
BoJo focussed on his ambition to be PM for quite a few years so I think he has a reasonable attention span and his judgement on what the electorate thinks is pretty spot on. Plenty of screw-ups in handling Covid, but he seems to have got the big decisions right - early focus on vaccination, supporting the economy and the foresight to realise eliminating the thing is worse than living with it - better than most.
But have to agree with you on his cabinet. How he has people like Williamson and Priti Patel there is beyond me.
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Call then Bravehearts v Sassenachs instead....
Brexit