Ukraine
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I've been to Ukraine many times and have lots of friends living there. Nice people, but a complicated and disputed history and lots and lots of guns, for a long time it was absolute economic basket case but the current President and his team are doing a better job on that front. If Putin wants to take action against the country now is the time before Zelenskyy can show his governing model works. I'm laughing at certain journalists claiming to be experts on the country but who know little of its complicated history or politics.
Put simply, the bottom line is this. If Putin bombs Kiev and launches a full invasion it is going to create an absolute shitstorm. I hope he pulls back from that madness and calmer heads and diplomacy can prevail.
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this just keeps getting closer.. Im also curious as to any world reaction, subsequent action.
I wouldn't be surprised if Putin goes through with it and is successful. The what happens next is the big question, does anyone actually do anything except talk? China finally annex Taiwan?
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@bayimports and I want to know if Russia invades and some legit serious sanctions are put in place... what impact on the poor bastards in the occupied parts of Ukraine? Does that just make them double fucked?
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@paekakboyz said in Ukraine:
@bayimports and I want to know if Russia invades and some legit serious sanctions are put in place... what impact on the poor bastards in the occupied parts of Ukraine? Does that just make them double fucked?
I do feel for anyone in the Ukraine right now. I suspect and its a guess, a lot of outrage and some sanctions, but I would be surpised to see anything that would impact Russia to majorly. Tensions across the world are incredibly high and I dont think anyone has the balls to take Putin on.
I also see NZ asked all NZ citizens to leave? I wonder where they will go? not NZ they wont let them in, although the Taliban is quite sympathetic of late.
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This invasion has been "imminent" for months. Around the same time some particular heads of state have needed to draw attention away from domestic issues not quite going their way.
Of course, if Putin went all in, that would leave Taiwan to fend for itself. The USA couldn't intervene in both regions.
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@antipodean wouldn't that be seen as too brazen and pull in other nations? edit: sorry, thinking that both Russia and China kick things off
I think the USA could intervene in both regions, but not for long. If your point was about picking their battles, I'd totally agree that not engaging one or the other is all about being able to win dominate in the battle they get into.
But they seem pretty well positioned if this is current.
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@paekakboyz I think coordinated regional pressure would be a clever idea, sowing unease and distrust in a key element of the USA's strategic approach, namely alliances.
The USA used to have a two and a half wars doctrine (i.e. the ability to participate in two full blown wars and another regional conflict) which became one and a half doctrine, which became a four region and two conflict model and currently the NDS calls for the ability to deal with two transgressors and three regions.
Either way, history has shown since the end of WW2 that the USA has literally no ability to conduct such a strategy in practice. Look at how long it took to mobilise a force in the Gulf War, how constrained it was dealing with just Iraq and Afghanistan. The capital expenditure invested in fighting the last war (a common problem) shown by its reliance on carrier group diplomacy. Against a modern credible threat like China, that's akin to investing in battleships for WW2 - they were obsolete. Modern anti-ship missiles make them billion dollar disasters.
FWIW (and I could be reading this wrong from very far away) I don't think Europe cares as much as the USA does.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
I don't think Europe cares as much as the USA does.
I think it just hasn't faced up to reality - it's like a rabbit in the headlights.
Europe (read EU) has had its head in the sand on Putin's ambitions, the rise of China and its decreasing relevance in the world for years. It's looked for an easy life, happy to shelter behind US military strength and trade-off economic independence for cheap energy from Putin's Russia and selling BMW's to China - and if they could piss off the US on a regular basis, so much the better for domestic politics.
It now has a choice, effectively allow Putin to move westwards to eventually confront EU states like Poland in a few years time, or have its economy fucked by high energy prices if Russia turns the gas supply off. The chickens may be coming home to roost.
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What's the odds Biden and his govt. are hyping the extent of the threat to give him a badly needed win on something - anything - if Russia decides not to attack?
The threat is real and has been for some time. While it's interesting Putin has ratcheted up the pressure since Trump went, I actually think Biden has handled this pretty well so far. The proof of the pudding will be if he carries thru on his threats if Putin does invade.
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@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
It now has a choice, effectively allow Putin to move westwards to eventually confront EU states like Poland in a few years time, or have its economy fucked by high energy prices if Russia turns the gas supply off. The chickens may be coming home to roost.
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term. It would decimate Russia's economy - petroleum exports constitutes half its exports.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Since sanctions were applied in 2014, Putin has built a war-chest to guard against financial pressure from the West, the world has changed and economic power has moved rapidly to China/Asia Pacific. He is forging an alliance with China, so will be way less reliant on Western financial pressure, now and in the next few years.
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An interesting 30 minute listen on the current situation:
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@bayimports said in Ukraine:
personally i like this take on the situation lol
Crack troops huh? Will they be handing it out at the border?
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Seems to me Putin wants a legacy, and draw attention away from something and this is an exercise to invade somewhere but it might not be the Ukraine.
NB how meshed is Crimea now with Russia? Have not kept up with it, seems to be a puppet de facto Russian satellite now?Back in history:
(1) the cession of Crimea was a ānoble act on the part of the Russian peopleā to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the āreunification of Ukraine with Russiaā (a reference to the Treaty of Pereyaslav signed in 1654 by representatives of the Ukrainian Cossack Hetmanate and Tsar Aleksei I of Muscovy) and to āevince the boundless trust and love the Russian people feel toward the Ukrainian peopleā;..
Boundless, huh.
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@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Then we're in a dangerous new era and all bets are off I guess.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
@antipodean said in Ukraine:
Russia needs export dollars more than the EU needs gas long term.
But what if the concept of export dollars is outdated thinking and the EU doesn't actually have that leverage?
Then we're in a dangerous new era and all bets are off I guess.
Yeah, just hope that people in the West have woken up and don't sleepwalk into problems. So far, so good and Biden's handled this OK.
Article about Putin's financial muscle. The author's a bit of a drama queen but points out that Putin runs a strong economy, has huge cash reserves and could cut off gas supplies to Europe for 2 years before feeling any pain.
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