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Regardless of your opinions of him, the odds on Trump's re-election have to be getting longer. He's still the favourite but it's a lot closer than it was a month ago.
The playbook for first-term Presidents getting the shaft looks very similar to this - they hum along OK and then get hit by an event that's beyond their control, and are perceived to respond poorly to it (a very simplistic analysis, of course, but you get my drift).
HW Bush had the recession, and Carter had the Iran hostage crisis. Coronavirus looms as the equivalent for Trump, and the big question is can he keep the disease in check and the economy alive.
The complete shambles that is the US medical system certainly doesn't seem to be helping him, but I can't say I know too much about the specifics of the situation over there.
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@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Thankfully creating a war as diversion doesn't look to be an option at the moment.
Hope Erdogan gets that memo, lots of unstability currently.
Instability yes. And bound to get more.
Not saying nothing will happen just that it is unlikely to be instigated by the US. -
A Biden presidency would be freaking hilarious.
I wonder if Trump would run again in 2024? -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
A Biden presidency would be freaking hilarious.
I wonder if Trump would run again in 2024?I can't see US citizens voting in a dementia patient, even during or after a disaster.
The most reasonable course of action would be thus:
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@barbarian said in US Politics:
HW Bush had the recession, and Carter had the Iran hostage crisis. Coronavirus looms as the equivalent for Trump, and the big question is can he keep the disease in check and the economy alive.
McCain by all polls had Obama covered before the GFC too.
I think this one is a bit different. My inclination is that it will play more like a war than an economic meltdown - but who knows.
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@Duluth said in US Politics:
The low unemployment rate has hidden a few things IMO. First of all unemployment counts the number of people searching for work.. not the people who drop out of the system. Remember there is a cap on how much unemployment benefit you can collect in the US. Also some unemployed get hidden on other benefits.
My concern is that the workforce participation rate has been strangely low in the USThe 'diseases of despair' deaths (suicide, opiates, alcoholism) don't seem to match the unemployment trend line. Maybe there is another reason for that.. Personally I'm not convinced the unemployment rate means the same thing they did a generation ago.
It's a lot more murky than a binary good/bad rating.
Agree 100%. Also underemployment is obviously a major issue and zero hours contracts excacerbate it further.
When you get any metric like which is so widely used and has political cut through the natural urge is going to be to game it. Same thing with the budget - after the bushfires but before coronavirus there were multiple articles outlining the loopholes the coalition could use to present a budget surplus on paper while ramping up capital spending in response.
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Interesting.
Trump's approval rating is going up.
44% to 49%
(Gallup is not a pro-Republican poll)However, as the article notes, the poll was conducted March 13–22, and opinions could change significantly given how quickly the COVID-19 crisis is developing.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Only thing with more buffoonery than an Orange Man is a Buffoon infected with Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Some of the stuff his political opponents have come up with in the last few weeks has been, in political terms, truly idiotic
Politics and media, both have come up with incredible idiocy over recent times.
I really dislike Trump as a person. I'd like to have thought that Americans would dislike having such a man as their leader, but it wasn't to be. So be it. On the flipside, I do not disagree with everything he has done in the last 4 years. I agree with some of the things he says right now. And I'm happy to say when I do.
But I wholeheartedly reserve the right to criticise an action or comment he makes or says in its own right, and I totally resent (not accusing you of accusing me) being called a hater or a sufferer of some derangement syndrome when I'm critical.
It's just so typical of where we are these days that you can't opine on a single event or action without getting cast as a radical hater one way or the other.
Interesting. I think it is because the media and culture is so stronng outside of the US that Trump is hopeless, that os really only sociably acceptable to criticise him. I just imagine th reaction at a social gathering if the subject came up and somneone sai how they think Trump is horrendous, most people wouldnt bat an eye. If on the other hand someone said how they htought he was doing great, the reaction would be either 1) telling you not to discuss politics, or b) soundly berated and beaten down about it.
I have no reason to not believe you about you thinking Trump has good ideas, but I dont remember you ever actually coming out with praise for the man. I do remember you lambasting him though.
This isnt a charge at you specifically, but debate and conversation is at its core, stumped and defeated by complete and utter intolerance of different ideas. The people who hate Trump never ever let anyone in their presence get away with praising him. I genuinely think people are scared to praise Trump in public, because they know how intolerant his detractors are. Even your post couldnt just say he has done good things.. you had to through in the usual and very common caveat of him being a horrible person. I used to do that as well, then I realized I was doing it for no real good reason. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback there is a good reason, he is actually a pretty nasty person. He mocks the disabled, he is a bully, he is absolutely misogynist and pretty clearly sexist . He is an egomaniac and narcissist.
Do you disagree with any of that?
Once you accept all that, and the fact that he has been deemed eligible for the highest office, you can move onto assessing his actual performance where he probably been better than expected . But it's human nature to comment more on the negatives of people you dislike than their positives . Doesnt make you wrong.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback also, how the fuck did you lure me here to your lair!!!
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@voodoo said in US Politics:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback there is a good reason, he is actually a pretty nasty person. He mocks the disabled, he is a bully, he is absolutely misogynist and pretty clearly sexist . He is an egomaniac and narcissist.
Do you disagree with any of that?
Once you accept all that, and the fact that he has been deemed eligible for the highest office, you can move onto assessing his actual performance where he probably been better than expected . But it's human nature to comment more on the negatives of people you dislike than their positives . Doesnt make you wrong.
Mate the bolded part is the futile part that causes a lot of unnecessary angst.
We'll never know what he's really like. Same for all famous people who we judge to fit into our feel good or ideal narratives.
It's totally human nature to take sides and consider character, but the distance is simply too far. All nation leaders can only be adequately assessed on the basis of performance. It's the only fair way, but runs counter to our intuition systems - the media knows that.
I found some clarity when I denounced the idea of me being either right or left. I like some ideas from both of them and I'll judge the people by the one's that enact the good ideas. Fuck their public personality. 🙂
US Politics