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@Crucial Cheers just found it too. I loved CNN's actual accurate summary of his response to the question
"Not healthcare, not revive the economy, not continue the coronavirus fight, I have more experience and Bolton's an idiot". Classic Trump right there.
Seems odd timing regarding the ACA alright. I know there is a big argument from conservatives against it but valid or not you'd think you'd want to delay the challenge a couple months until this health scare is less 'front and centre'. I guess it was a campaign promise so maybe hoping to sneak in a win there prior to the election.
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Crucial, you are making the mistake of thinking that people are voting with their heads.
Team A votes for A
Team B votes for B
A small number swing either way
A large number don't even vote.Things are so polarised, many are just voting against the other guy.
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@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial
I always look at the betting markets as a good indicator - at least better than agenda driven media.Biden certainly seems the strong favorite at this stage.
Can Trump pull something out of the fire?
Maybe?Joe Biden 61.9%
Donald Trump 36.4%I wouldn't put too much faith in them wrt politics, they got 2016 horribly wrong on the back of Brexit and then totally misread the Australian election.
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@Kirwan said in US Politics:
Crucial, you are making the mistake of thinking that people are voting with their heads.
Team A votes for A
Team B votes for B
A small number swing either way
A large number don't even vote.Things are so polarised, many are just voting against the other guy.
I completely understand that except for a couple of points.
Trump has targeted a subset of Team A (the ones that wear his hats). Plenty of party members that can't stand him. They may rather not vote but that works for Biden.
The swing voters are the ones that think no party looks after them. They gave Trump a wildcard chance last time because, for them, it was worth a try after Hillary targeted nothing at them. If they either don't vote or change again that works for Biden.
Trump is now the known quantity. You can take away all of his foibles and mannerisms, remove any personality negatives and you are left with a politician big on talk, short on achievements. For those that surprised Clinton by voting Trump last time, he has arguably made things worse or, at best, the same. -
@Duluth said in US Politics:
A competent Governor.. no idea if they have one after the way the last few months have gone. Cuomo isn’t the media darling anymore
Yes, that is the flaw in my prediction. There doesn’t seem to be a good replacement
I see. Cuomo seems the most likely to succeed, probably has the NY "toughness" to take Trumps insults and he'll obviously have the considerable weight of CNN behind him.
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@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
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@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
I think that is more about the system than the voting public.
"Chads", electoral college, that sort of thing.
I really can't believe that you actually have to vote for somebody to vote on your behalf. -
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
Crucial, you are making the mistake of thinking that people are voting with their heads.
Team A votes for A
Team B votes for B
A small number swing either way
A large number don't even vote.Things are so polarised, many are just voting against the other guy.
I completely understand that except for a couple of points.
Trump has targeted a subset of Team A (the ones that wear his hats). Plenty of party members that can't stand him. They may rather not vote but that works for Biden.
The swing voters are the ones that think no party looks after them. They gave Trump a wildcard chance last time because, for them, it was worth a try after Hillary targeted nothing at them. If they either don't vote or change again that works for Biden.
Trump is now the known quantity. You can take away all of his foibles and mannerisms, remove any personality negatives and you are left with a politician big on talk, short on achievements. For those that surprised Clinton by voting Trump last time, he has arguably made things worse or, at best, the same.Trumps "foibles" were well known before the election.
Short on achievements is an opinion as well. His achievements have been posted on this thread before, obviously they don't get reported on.
Thinking it's a slam dunk is very similar thinking to 2016 IMO. Will be close IMO, particuarly if they have to prop up Biden's corpse.
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@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
Where did I say he wouldn't leave office? That is the most bizzarre suggestion I have heard simply because there is no way for him to stand ground.
What has been happening is a lot of ground work on disputing postal ballots (before they are even made) and potential skullduggery around voting machine accessibility in targeted areas to test courts.
I doubt very much that these 'rumours' will come true, but they are a slim possibility and I stand by my prediction that if Trump wins it will be after some contested polling. -
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
Yeah it's weird how they take the likelihood that he'll have a massive whinge about being treated unfairly as some kind of indication that he'll attempt a coup. It's particularly bizarre given all the Russia Gate hysteria and Hilary's four year mysoginy whinge
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Aggregate polling shows that he is now at his 1 year floor.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.htmlAlarm bells would have to sound if he goes below 40% approval. I'd expect him to bounce back in the next month if the economy continues to improve and if law and order starts to be visibly restored. Both big 'ifs' though.
edit - I can't read graphs
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@junior said in US Politics:
the likelihood that he'll have a massive whinge about being treated unfairly
It's quite likely. He does have a history of that.
Fake news, only talking to reporters that are on his side, etc.
It just appears to be a personality trait of his. -
@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
Aggregate polling shows that he is now at his 1 year floor.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.htmlAlarm bells would have to sound if he goes below 40% approval. I'd expect him to bounce back in the next month if the economy continues to improve and if law and order starts to be visibly restored. Both big 'ifs' though.
edit - I can't read graphs
What is the 'improving economy' you talk of? Stock Market? That's not economy.
Can't find too much positive in here https://www.bea.gov/news/glance -
@Duluth said in US Politics:
A competent Governor.. no idea if they have one after the way the last few months have gone. Cuomo isn’t the media darling anymore
Yes, that is the flaw in my prediction. There doesn’t seem to be a good replacement
I reckon, and no idea if others would agree, that if Biden stepped down and Michelle Obama took over she would absolutely piss it in. Smart, sensible and a clean record. I'd say the centre would love her. She's the only person that stands out to me.
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@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
A competent Governor.. no idea if they have one after the way the last few months have gone. Cuomo isn’t the media darling anymore
Yes, that is the flaw in my prediction. There doesn’t seem to be a good replacement
I see. Cuomo seems the most likely to succeed, probably has the NY "toughness" to take Trumps insults and he'll obviously have the considerable weight of CNN behind him.
My Upstate NY friends can't stand Cuomo.
How influential the non-metropolitan vote is remains to be seen
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@No-Quarter said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
A competent Governor.. no idea if they have one after the way the last few months have gone. Cuomo isn’t the media darling anymore
Yes, that is the flaw in my prediction. There doesn’t seem to be a good replacement
I reckon, and no idea if others would agree, that if Biden stepped down and Michelle Obama took over she would absolutely piss it in. Smart, sensible and a clean record. I'd say the centre would love her. She's the only person that stands out to me.
She would be fascinating. Trump used to speak admiringly of her when she was first lady, would be interesting to see how he conducts himself against a highly respected woman of colour
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Fantastic sarcasm and piss taking
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@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Siam said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@junior said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
Dem convention is 20th of August
I still suspect he won’t be the nominee. If I’m correct that will be stage managed. A Biden press conference with his wife, she talked him out of running for health reasons etc etc.. That would happen a week or so before the convention for maximum impact
Do you suspect he won't be the nominees because you think the Dems themselves believe is indeed in a state of serious decline and it will be too obvious to voters?
Or another reason?Dems are talking about it. His own campaign is clearly limiting his unscripted moments
Rasmussen polls are dodgy as fuck but 20% of Dem voters said they think he has dementia. If the real number is half that, it’s still pretty bad
Maybe he is fine. The perception is what matters
Who do they replace him with? The reason they've largely ignored the primary results and gone with him is due to the (probably misguided) belief that he has the best chance against Trump.
I don’t think it matters who the Dems put up against Trump this time. Barring skullduggery at the ballot Trump is gone.
Your contempt for the US voting public is almost palpable huh?
It's something I've seen in real life and on the internet, there seems to be a genuine belief on the left that Trump won't leave office. It's bizarre.
Where did I say he wouldn't leave office? That is the most bizzarre suggestion I have heard simply because there is no way for him to stand ground.
What has been happening is a lot of ground work on disputing postal ballots (before they are even made) and potential skullduggery around voting machine accessibility in targeted areas to test courts.
I doubt very much that these 'rumours' will come true, but they are a slim possibility and I stand by my prediction that if Trump wins it will be after some contested polling.Its the opposite. Trump will (easily) win if there isn't funny stuff with the voting. Its the democrats that are pushing for vote-by-mail not Trump. The more verifiable and honest (with only legal voters) the better for Trump. And the democrats know it.
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@No-Quarter said in US Politics:
@Duluth said in US Politics:
A competent Governor.. no idea if they have one after the way the last few months have gone. Cuomo isn’t the media darling anymore
Yes, that is the flaw in my prediction. There doesn’t seem to be a good replacement
I reckon, and no idea if others would agree, that if Biden stepped down and Michelle Obama took over she would absolutely piss it in. Smart, sensible and a clean record. I'd say the centre would love her. She's the only person that stands out to me.
Remember Hillary and what she would do to Trump. Michelle would be a fool to take on Trump. If she wants to (run for President) wait 4 more years (and do the lot not sneak in at the end). Biden should have not entered this race (don't believe these polls). My view is it will be Hillary vs Trump again as Biden's mind has gone. So he's only a joke fill-in until Hillary steps in at the last minute.
US Politics