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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Latest yougov polls make for interesting reading.
Remain / Leave - 56/44
Remain / No Deal - 59/41
Remain / Mays Deal - 65/35Poses an interesting point now about democracy. UK voted to leave in 2016, and leave it must. But in 2018, if opinion polls have changed, is it still democratic? Was an article in the Guardian the other day too, about how the demographic changes on a daily basis due to older people passing on and younger people joining the voting ranks. Using the averages from the vote, the UK would have naturally swung to Remain.
I really can't see any other result other than another referendum. If this happens, it's a massive watershed moment in British politics, British democracy and the country as a whole.
We will see.
Wait.. what?
You are basing all that on polling?Cause polls can be trusted since?
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Latest yougov polls make for interesting reading.
Remain / Leave - 56/44
Remain / No Deal - 59/41
Remain / Mays Deal - 65/35Poses an interesting point now about democracy. UK voted to leave in 2016, and leave it must. But in 2018, if opinion polls have changed, is it still democratic? Was an article in the Guardian the other day too, about how the demographic changes on a daily basis due to older people passing on and younger people joining the voting ranks. Using the averages from the vote, the UK would have naturally swung to Remain.
I really can't see any other result other than another referendum. If this happens, it's a massive watershed moment in British politics, British democracy and the country as a whole.
We will see.
Wait.. what?
You are basing all that on polling?Cause polls can be trusted since?
Wait ... what?
You are saying that people shouldn't comment on polls?
I am not stating anything as fact. I am pointing out what yougov polls, which are widely listened to in both governement and media are stating.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Latest yougov polls make for interesting reading.
Remain / Leave - 56/44
Remain / No Deal - 59/41
Remain / Mays Deal - 65/35Poses an interesting point now about democracy. UK voted to leave in 2016, and leave it must. But in 2018, if opinion polls have changed, is it still democratic? Was an article in the Guardian the other day too, about how the demographic changes on a daily basis due to older people passing on and younger people joining the voting ranks. Using the averages from the vote, the UK would have naturally swung to Remain.
I really can't see any other result other than another referendum. If this happens, it's a massive watershed moment in British politics, British democracy and the country as a whole.
We will see.
Wait.. what?
You are basing all that on polling?Cause polls can be trusted since?
Wait ... what?
You are saying that people shouldn't comment on polls?
I am not stating anything as fact. I am pointing out what yougov polls, which are widely listened to in both governement and media are stating.
You said that if opinion polls have changed is it still democratic didnt you? Democracy does not hinge on opinion polls, especially ones that already got it wrong.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Latest yougov polls make for interesting reading.
Remain / Leave - 56/44
Remain / No Deal - 59/41
Remain / Mays Deal - 65/35Poses an interesting point now about democracy. UK voted to leave in 2016, and leave it must. But in 2018, if opinion polls have changed, is it still democratic? Was an article in the Guardian the other day too, about how the demographic changes on a daily basis due to older people passing on and younger people joining the voting ranks. Using the averages from the vote, the UK would have naturally swung to Remain.
I really can't see any other result other than another referendum. If this happens, it's a massive watershed moment in British politics, British democracy and the country as a whole.
We will see.
Wait.. what?
You are basing all that on polling?Cause polls can be trusted since?
Wait ... what?
You are saying that people shouldn't comment on polls?
I am not stating anything as fact. I am pointing out what yougov polls, which are widely listened to in both governement and media are stating.
You said that if opinion polls have changed is it still democratic didnt you? Democracy does not hinge on opinion polls, especially ones that already got it wrong.
That's a parliamentary decision. I asked a question, as I'm interested in people's thoughts on the issue, hence posting. If you think that poll's are baseless, then thats fine. But do you think all polls should be? What if it had swung to 90/10? Are poll's still baseless then?
I can see both sides. First and foremost, democracy should be upheld. However this situation is huge, with far reaching consequences for a lot of people. There are a lot of people who are strongly strongly against leave, and have already faced some economic consequences because of it. They read these polls, and make no mistake these gaps are very wide in favour of the Remain side, you can't blame them for kicking up a stink can you?
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Latest yougov polls make for interesting reading.
Remain / Leave - 56/44
Remain / No Deal - 59/41
Remain / Mays Deal - 65/35Poses an interesting point now about democracy. UK voted to leave in 2016, and leave it must. But in 2018, if opinion polls have changed, is it still democratic? Was an article in the Guardian the other day too, about how the demographic changes on a daily basis due to older people passing on and younger people joining the voting ranks. Using the averages from the vote, the UK would have naturally swung to Remain.
I really can't see any other result other than another referendum. If this happens, it's a massive watershed moment in British politics, British democracy and the country as a whole.
We will see.
Wait.. what?
You are basing all that on polling?Cause polls can be trusted since?
Wait ... what?
You are saying that people shouldn't comment on polls?
I am not stating anything as fact. I am pointing out what yougov polls, which are widely listened to in both governement and media are stating.
You said that if opinion polls have changed is it still democratic didnt you? Democracy does not hinge on opinion polls, especially ones that already got it wrong.
That's a parliamentary decision. I asked a question, as I'm interested in people's thoughts on the issue, hence posting. If you think that poll's are baseless, then thats fine. But do you think all polls should be? What if it had swung to 90/10? Are poll's still baseless then?
I can see both sides. First and foremost, democracy should be upheld. However this situation is huge, with far reaching consequences for a lot of people. There are a lot of people who are strongly strongly against leave, and have already faced some economic consequences because of it. They read these polls, and make no mistake these gaps are very wide in favour of the Remain side, you can't blame them for kicking up a stink can you?
You feel strongly in democracy however not in this case because is it is a big deal and people are angry?
I think differently
I feel strongly about democracy always.Just out of curiosity if remamin wins a second referendum and then polls show that leave has taken the lead.. would the UK need a 3rd one? How long exactly would these polls be allowed to dictate referendums?
And nope, I don't believe the polls, they are open to corruption and bias. And that doesn't even take into account the mistakes they have been proven to have made.
As for kicking up a stink ... you wont have have seen anything yet if they cancel Brexit.
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And in the poll you quoted.. you left out that less than half of Brits support a second referendum.... if you are going to rely on polls so heavily to support a 2nd referendum.. wouldn't you need over 50% support for a 2nd referendum in that poll?
The UK is a mess, mostly because they let remainers negotiate a leave. And the EU are fluffybunnies.
Is there even time for a second referendum? Wouldnt that require a extension that the EU has to agree to? And they wont because of the EU elections in May?
And what would the question even be? It couldnt be the same as the first one without it being a mockery.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
You feel strongly in democracy however not in this case because is it is a big deal and people are angry?
I think differently
I feel strongly about democracy always.And nope, I don't believe the polls, they are open to corruption and bias. And that doesn't even take into account the mistakes they have been proven to have made.
As for kicking up a stink ... you wont have have seen anything yet if they cancel Brexit.
No, I am just prepared to step back and look at the view from the other side. If you want my personal view, I believe Brexit should go ahead as that is what democracy voted for. However, May's deal and No-deal are both pretty shithouse for UK, so a realistic option needs to found. What that is, I have no clue.
Lets say Jacinda goes all Corbyn and decides all large growth areas in NZ are ruining the greater country and puts a 10% annual tax on your house value in Tauranga. This gets voted in 52-48. Subsequently, the implementation causes all sorts of stink, and 3 months out, the polls which Jacinda has based many things on are showing the country is now 56-44 against the idea. What would you think then? I assure you, many Remoaners are thinking exactly like this.
A massive stink is going to be kicked up regardless. I think that's the point you are missing. The only reason it hasn't got proper nasty yet, is that the remoaners think they currently have a pretty good chance of getting what they want. I have no fear of shit being kicked up of a Brexit cancellation, as I think a shitty Brexit will be it's equal, if not worse.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
And in the poll you quoted.. you left out that less than half of Brits support a second referendum.... if you are going to rely on polls so heavily to support a 2nd referendum.. wouldn't you need over 50% support for a 2nd referendum in that poll?
Thats a fair point.
The UK is a mess, mostly because they let remainers negotiate a leave. And the EU are fluffybunnies.
Won't disagree with that.
Is there even time for a second referendum? Wouldnt that require a extension that the EU has to agree to? And they wont because of the EU elections in May?
The EU will 100% allow an Article 50 extension to accommodate timings for a new referendum. They are pretty public about desperation for UK to remain.
And what would the question even be? It couldnt be the same as the first one without it being a mockery.
It couldn't be anything other than Leave/Remain.
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Well finally we have some definitive evidence that a No-deal Brexit is the long term best option for Britain.
Our economic wiz, commander-and-chief Starbright is against it.
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Big day here ... final vote on May's deal, with legal changes to avoid the permanent backstop.
Well, at least that was the story at 11:29.
At 11:30, the Attorney General states the legal risk remains unchanged. Thats the end of that.
Now we really are on a precipice!!
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Big day here ... final vote on May's deal, with legal changes to avoid the permanent backstop.
Well, at least that was the story at 11:29.
At 11:30, the Attorney General states the legal risk remains unchanged. Thats the end of that.
Now we really are on a precipice!!
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Big day here ... final vote on May's deal, with legal changes to avoid the permanent backstop.
Well, at least that was the story at 11:29.
At 11:30, the Attorney General states the legal risk remains unchanged. Thats the end of that.
Now we really are on a precipice!!
What's the latest now? I could look but I do prefer some ferners commentary on this.
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@Hooroo She got smashed again ... 149 majority now, which is an improvement, but it's still so far away from getting through.
She's just spoke and said the original plan sticks. Tomorrow they vote on no-deal (Which should be a resounding no), and then extension to article 50. Which I expect will be a yes.
And then, the EU will say why, you've got a deal now f off and deal with it ...
At which point ... it's a real worry. A real worry.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Hooroo She got smashed again ... 149 majority now, which is an improvement, but it's still so far away from getting through.
She's just spoke and said the original plan sticks. Tomorrow they vote on no-deal (Which should be a resounding no), and then extension to article 50. Which I expect will be a yes.
And then, the EU will say why, you've got a deal now f off and deal with it ...
At which point ... it's a real worry. A real worry.
Wow!
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@MajorRage far out, is this just an absolute commitment to no deal over a bad deal? Where some might argue that it's an average deal rather than a bad deal?
@Hooroo beat me to it!!
Surely this has gone beyond any personal enmity against May? Do they just want to watch the world burn??
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@Paekakboyz I really think that the major stumbling block is that there is a group of people (Parliament) that are in charge of delivering the people's will on Brexit but the majority of them don't want it.
What the outcome will be is still open to almost any scenario but what it is without doubt is a complete shambles.
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@Paekakboyz there are so many points of view.
The logistics of no deal in reality rule it out. It means hard border in Ireland (which fuck all people seem to acknowledge and questions if I’m right here) which means implosion. Not to mention required changes to all borders / entry for all people, products, services and trade.
BUT ... it’s also probably the best way to get things done. Sink or swim.
The extension is just a flop as well. There is a deadlock which won’t move. An extension won’t change that. Whose to say the EU will do anything anyway?
So ... in reality I don’t know. But May us fucked. Totally and utterly. But she doesn’t see it.
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@MajorRage @Catogrande cheers guys. While May has fucked things is there any sense that anyone could have gotten an exit deal over the line? i.e. is this the ultimate poison chalice?
Man so much of politics (since day dot I guess) is actively fucking with the other side to the detriment of all, especially joe public. I guess one of the shameful things about this debacle is that those in the political trenches are likely to avoid having their names go down in history as fucking up brexit? where that will sit with May and perhaps the other party leaders? or do you think the stain will go wider?
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@Paekakboyz said in Brexit:
@MajorRage @Catogrande cheers guys. While May has fucked things is there any sense that anyone could have gotten an exit deal over the line? i.e. is this the ultimate poison chalice?
Man so much of politics (since day dot I guess) is actively fucking with the other side to the detriment of all, especially joe public. I guess one of the shameful things about this debacle is that those in the political trenches are likely to avoid having their names go down in history as fucking up brexit? where that will sit with May and perhaps the other party leaders? or do you think the stain will go wider?
To answer your questions. Firstly I don't think May has fucked this herself although she certainly could have done some things better, like not calling a General Election when she had a working majority or at least bloody well campaign during the election. The result greatly hindered her and made her position very weak. Is she toast? Most likely I'd say, certainly in the longer run. As to a more short term view maybe not. If there was someone else willing to take on this shitshow then perhaps she'd be ousted but at the moment that doesn't seem to be on the cards.
What will posterity say about it all? IMO May will carry the can for a lot of it but also Cameron who really dumped us in the shit and then buggered off. All the others that have said a lot but done very little will likely get away with hardly a stain.
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Genuine question after watching
and will admit right off the bat I am incredibly ignorant.In terms of the Irish border why does this issue have to be resolved prior to Brexit? More importantly why is it implicitly the British's responsibility to resolve it?
Why can't they just maintain the policy of absolutely no wall, allow Brexit to pass and attempt to police incoming goods and immigration as best they can from within. Yes, absolutely it's going to be a massive backdoor; but I'd rather be on the side of the backdoor with one person going for the exit than 27 people scrambling to the exit. Let the status quo change a bit and let's see what happens?
I see absolutely no reason why NI should remain in part in the customs union anymore than Ireland should be forced to exit (or at least introduce additional controls).
Brexit