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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Catogrande difference is we could have been “here” a few weeks ago instead of now!
I really liked May initially. But man did thst worm turn
Reminds me a bit of Chamberlain's "I have in my hand a piece of paper" speech that he shortly got crucified for. History is revisiting that and suggesting he maybe knew it was worth fuck all but it bought us some time. Remember, she never wanted to leave the EU...
That has been my view for a while now. Mainly because I think I was giving her too much credit.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Catogrande difference is we could have been “here” a few weeks ago instead of now!
I really liked May initially. But man did thst worm turn
Reminds me a bit of Chamberlain's "I have in my hand a piece of paper" speech that he shortly got crucified for. History is revisiting that and suggesting he maybe knew it was worth fuck all but it bought us some time. Remember, she never wanted to leave the EU...
That has been my view for a while now. Mainly because I think I was giving her too much credit.
There's always that danger. I find myself veering between thinking that she's in just an awful position to thinking, you crafty bitch.
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@Catogrande It could be the greatest long game ever played.
The most inexplicable action to me was her rush to trigger Article 50 before she had a plan (or a consensus for a plan that would pass parliament). Basically that gave away all leverage that the UK had as it changed the baseline from “we’re going to fuck around and be annoying until the EU gives us what we want” to “we are crashing out with no deal”. Also it allowed the various factions to develop and entrench against her. Didn’t make sense then or now.
The plan she has presented isn’t a plan at all. It just says that the UK will pay everything owed up front, and then negotiate terms on trade etc. Which seems like a pretty shit position to be in.
So today they are going to rule out no deal. And then they’ll probably rule out no extension. Fuck knows what happens then.
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I actually think May has been genuine in trying to bring “the will of the people” into reality. She has just made some terrible errors and/or taken terrible advice.
The election was dumb but even dumber was setting an exit date down which gave Europe the upper hand in negotiations.
Would you go into negotiations to sell your house by telling the buyer that you have to sell and that you have to do so by a certain date? They’d just offer a low price/ tough conditions and not move. Thy took a knife to a gunfight.
Brexit has been an amazingly poor piece of governance in nearly every aspect.
First the referendum. If taking votes for something of such long term consequences without a plan, at least raise the threshold (eg 60%) to try and drive strong debate and evidence before the vote. If not keen on that idea then do it in stages and maintain negotiating power. Ask if people want to leave, negotiate hard with your own readiness to fuck up the other side if necessary then go back to the vote with options (maybe with a preference vote).
This dragging out has lead to such divisions and entrenchment that fact and reality have gone well out the window. I doubt another vote would actually swing such are people wanting to stick it to the politicians on all sides for their incompetence.This example is one that reflects poorly on brexiteers only but it is here just to show the entrenched views....
I watched a show a few weeks back where there was a live feed from a pub in the north asking people what they voted and whether their view had changed. Many of them were adamant that they would not only be ok without Europe but would thrive because overseas car companies valued the great work they did at the local factory so highly. UK would apparently become in demand as a a manufacturer.
Two days later the very same Honda plant announced that they would not be making their new models at that facility because it was better to be inside Europe rather than outside. -
Just watching the EU live now on TV. Some tough talking going on, as you'd expect given their position at the moment. But the message was very clear - and it's a fair one too. No chance in hell of an extension, unless you present with it a very clear plan of what is going to play out.
Reality is that EU elections are coming up, and they won't be interested in talking about Brexit again for quite some time.
I'm struggling to see a way out of this without signing the only deal thats available ... Brilliant positioning by the EU, used the no-deal scenario perfectly.
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@MajorRage I think the EU would agree to an extension for the UK to hold a referendum to approve the deal/no deal/no Brexit. Or alternatively for a general election. But they would probably want a 6-9 month delay (at least until after the EU elections).
I don't think a general election will actually help matters as neither Labour nor the Tories know what their own position on Brexit is.
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@Rancid-Schnitzel said in Brexit:
The way I see it, the remainers should have handed over the keys to the leavers and told them to put up or shut up. How can you have a PM in charge of this process who would reverse the result of the vote in an instance if she had the chance?
Brexiteers (Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Dominic Raab, David Davis) were put in charge of the process. They all quit when they discovered that the EU wouldn't give them what they had promised that they could get. Turns out negotiation is about compromise ... who knew?
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@antipodean said in Brexit:
In terms of the Irish border why does this issue have to be resolved prior to Brexit? More importantly why is it implicitly the British's responsibility to resolve it?
It's not. That's for the EU to worry about - they're the ones who will have to develop a solution for Ireland within their single market.
Well yes ... but in the meantime it’s London who will face the consequences, which has in fact already started.
Yep. The IRA has already started posting some explosive opinion pieces.
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Brexiteers (Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Dominic Raab, David Davis) were put in charge of the process
It's a complete myth they were put in charge of the process and that's the problem.
The negotiations were handled (in secret) by Theresa May and Ollie Robbins - a senior civil servant. The first time Brexiteers like Michael Gove, Liam Fox & David David heard about May's Chequers plan for withdrawal was when she presented to Cabinet - and Davis was Brexit Secretary, FFS. That's why the likes of David Davis & Dominic Rabb resigned - May shut them out of the process.
The current Brexit mess is mainly down to May. She has made a complete pig's ear of this and has alienating everyone by changing her mind continuously and with breath-taking incompetence. Just look at the current fiasco where she hailed Tuesday's agreement as sorting out the backstop issue without having it checked legally first.
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That is really interesting @Victor-Meldrew, can only imagine how many different elements that sort of arrangement might have comprised of... probably starting with a fuck you from May, then all sorts of layers of power plays and trying to set up X, Y, Z outcomes.
If May has indeed cut out (for whatever reason) supporters of Brexit from the negotiation team/process then that seems just plain stupid. Presumably she thought having them involved, and exercising power?, was a worse outcome than them getting an out when her shitty deal was announced?
This is a right mind-fuck. With short-medium and long-term games being played, at personal, party and National level. I pity the poor students of the future who have to study this shitshow and come up with coherent analysis, as it feels like it's all over the bloody shop. At least to this layperson!
Keep the info and commentary coming guys - now that things like they are coming to a genuine head it's some spicy stuff.
Oh, not to detract from the humanity of what this might actually mean for any of our fern brethren, or folks at large in Britain. Story of our times aye, barrels of fun for the little guys/gals caught in the middle of all of this.
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@MajorRage Pretty much spot-on except the "brilliant positioning" is less the EU than May's incompetence. There is some talk that 1-2 EU governments may veto any extension to Article 50.
My guess is that May's deal will get thru once the pure-Brexit headbangers realise they have too much to lose by not supporting it.
Immense damage being done to faith in politicians - heard one MP say in the house today that "the people's views on this matter (Brexit) don't count"
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@Paekakboyz said in Brexit:
I pity the poor students of the future who have to study this shitshow and come up with coherent analysis, as it feels like it's all over the bloody shop. At least to this layperson!
Yep. And to think I struggled with something simple like The Battle of the Three Kingdoms.....
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@Paekakboyz said in Brexit:
This is a right mind-fuck.
It is truly staggering to hear MP's dismissing the result of a referendum, arguing for second and/or third referendums or arguing for the referendum result to be ignored.
MPs really seem to have lost their common sense and are running around like headless chickens with no thought of the consequences of their actions.
The vox pop is that voters are getting seriously pissed off with MPs both trying to find ways to frustrate the result of a referendum and purist Brexit MPs not willing to accept any reasonable deal.
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@Victor-Meldrew I guess that depends who wins doesn’t it. There seems to be an assumption that a second referendum necessarily results in a remain vote.
I think a second referendum would probably give the same result (unless they give two leave options and the vote gets split). People seem to just want to get on with it. And if the referendum is on concrete proposals then the government will have a direct mandate. As it currently stands, they cannot agree on what they have a mandate for which is why the shit show keeps dragging on.
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At the risk of adding some levity to this thread Straight Outta Compton/Brexit mashup
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No deal Brexit defeated, albeit narrowly. So no deal and no no deal. What a fuck up.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
Brexiteers (Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Dominic Raab, David Davis) were put in charge of the process
It's a complete myth they were put in charge of the process and that's the problem.
The negotiations were handled (in secret) by Theresa May and Ollie Robbins - a senior civil servant. The first time Brexiteers like Michael Gove, Liam Fox & David David heard about May's Chequers plan for withdrawal was when she presented to Cabinet - and Davis was Brexit Secretary, FFS. That's why the likes of David Davis & Dominic Rabb resigned - May shut them out of the process.
The current Brexit mess is mainly down to May. She has made a complete pig's ear of this and has alienating everyone by changing her mind continuously and with breath-taking incompetence. Just look at the current fiasco where she hailed Tuesday's agreement as sorting out the backstop issue without having it checked legally first.
The other view on that is that they deliberately stayed clear of the process to avoid being tainted. I think it was reported that David Davis only attended half a day of negotiations for his whole stint as Brexit secretary. (Raab, to be fair, came in when it was pretty much all sewn up.)
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I am very surprised that it was that close. They were a gnats hair away from a no deal exit. I think (just guessing) that if the EU refuses to extend, and it becomes a choice of cancelling Brexit or no deal... then at least 4 MP's will change their vote.
And as for the claim made earier that Honda left becuase of Brexit.. that is just typoical of the dishonest narratives that ahve plagued this whole discussion. Remainers complain about the Leave side not being honest, yet are guilty of exactly the same thing. Honda leaving was not because of Brexit, only a few outlets like the Guardian have been pushing that. Direct from the company.
A few posters on this thread like @MajorRage and @Catogrande I disagree with quite strongly on Brexi, but I think their criticism of the process is spot on.
Brexit