Coronavirus - Overall
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.
I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.
I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.
That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........
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So aside from TP, pasta etc the supermarkets I frequent have been well stocked ... until today when there is no frozen veggies or cans of soup at all. Even Aldi was cleared out ....
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Word is that Oz going into lockdown as of Thursday, only essential businesses allowed to be open...
Damn I hope not ... what do they consider essential, and how long for? I might have to start eating the rice I have in the cupboard, and I don't eat rice!
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Christ..a work colleague just messaged after hearing about my brother getting home. Her nephew just started his OE in France and has said he is looking to head home, she was wondering how he would do that. Sadly considering the country is now on lockdown I think he might just have to ride this out in France, hopefully he knows some folk there.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Word is that Oz going into lockdown as of Thursday, only essential businesses allowed to be open...
Got a source on that? Not doubting it at all in fact I'd say its necessary, just want to let some folk know. Should be looking at nearly double todays infections by then.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Word is that Oz going into lockdown as of Thursday, only essential businesses allowed to be open...
That would be an economic disaster. I'd be astonished if it were true, because that would certainly cement the Morrison Government as the first in ~27 years to experience a recession. Unless of course they realise that's unavoidable now.
Timely excerpt from an article in The Australian:
But sadly, nowhere more so than in Australia, governments have been infected by a political hubris much more potent than in earlier times. Keynesian economists who (at least in Australia) reign over the Treasury and Reserve Bank and much of the commentariat have promoted a response to downturns with the policy of trying to stimulate aggregate demand.
It may well be that our fears of a new disease have brought an exaggerated response by the community and governments, but the coming world economic meltdown is now unstoppable. It will be the first in over a century that has not resulted from war or government economic mismanagement.
But even the coronavirus has come at a time when the world economy is vulnerable due to unbalanced government budgets and loose monetary policy that have brought high national indebtedness and inflated asset prices.
Back in 2017, Ronald Reagan’s former budget director, David Stockman, was warning that the stock exchange boom could not be sustained in light of Trump’s loose fiscal policies and the debt at 105 per cent of GDP (compared with 30 per cent prior to the Reagan boom). In July last year Stockman predicted a 40 per cent drop in stock prices.
This now looks prescient. But much more important than a stock price correction is the correction of the real economy that can easily be impeded by the pump-priming policies.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Word is that Oz going into lockdown as of Thursday, only essential businesses allowed to be open...
Shit that is going to have some serious consequences. Problem is for how long? When do you relax the rules, when there are no new cases?
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No source I can quote, a friend who is CEO of a large listed entity got it from a friend he considers reputable. Take it as you will. Stuff seems to change by the hour at the moment anyway right?
By essential, I take that to mean doctors, pharmacies and supermarkets and very little else.
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@R-L said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
You lot told me to vote for Boris
Not really we told you NOT to vote for Jezza. He would likely be treating the pandemic with homeopathy cures.
It might work - worth trying?
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Here's a nasty one. My sister in law's dad died yesterday. She's in NZ, he's in Australia.
The self isolation makes it non viable to travel.I speculate that a test ( ala Sth Korea) would have made her choice less gut wrenching
I'd like to know about both countries preparedness strategies since Dec 2019
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
No source I can quote, a friend who is CEO of a large listed entity got it from a friend he considers reputable. Take it as you will. Stuff seems to change by the hour at the moment anyway right?
By essential, I take that to mean doctors, pharmacies and supermarkets and very little else.
Got to have a supply chain mate, even one in hazmat suits
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Woolworths and Coles react to the "shopping crisis" by introducing elderly shopping hour and people complain that the shelves are still bare.
Like it's the supermarket's fault that they didn't magically create stock levels while every halfwit is busy hoarding whatever they can gets their hands on. This virus really needs to target the morons instead of the elderly.
Fuck that would be a terrible way to go. I would be lying on my deathbed, family all around and I would pass away with the horrible realisation I was way stupider than I thought I was.
An intriguing concept. It'd be a horrible yet infallible proof of the Kruger Dunning effect in someone's last hours. (Perhaps also a shock to some of the 75% of drivers who reportedly self assess their skills as "above average").
75% of them are right though eh!
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Was just reading the story of the latest confirmed cases, and FARRRRRRRRK it makes me angry. Family flying home from the USA. Dad feels unwell on flight home, but then boards flight to Dunedin. They send kid to school on return, yes of course kid tests positive, and now they have to close the school, plus contact all the poor people that were near this bunch of dipshits. No kudos to anyone who let them get to Dunedin, either.
As I said earlier, we are fucked if our strategy is to rely on common sense.
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@Siam said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
If Aus was to shut down I think there'd be a chorus of "it's only the fucken flu!" - which it is.
Aussies are too aussie to give up everything for the flu without a fightI wonder? I'm not in Aus at the moment, but have mostly lived there for the last 20yrs. And I totally agree they'd be pissed at a shutdown if it all turned out ok (I get the irony).
But messaging I'm getting from friends and family lately is that they're all taking it super seriously, particularly in the boomer generation. Lots of fear, lots of panic.
The economic fallout of a shutdown will be massive, but I'm not sure Joe Public is thinking about that too much right now?
Does it feel different on the ground?