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@Siam said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Don't discount a mischievous media who are feasting on uncertainty and public outrage at the moment.
This thing's better than war for generating shitty clicks. I can think of one industry making hay on this thing
The media covers all angles / facets and subsequently conclusion. So basically people form a conclusion then find a source which agrees with it to back themselves up.
I've been an avid fan of Piers Morgan since I moved here, but he's lost the plot on this. He's the epitome of a journalist who think his opinion is better informed than others.
I've actually decided to just trust the government on this.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Yep. There are threads around from various journalists about how his experts are saying they got it wrong
Jeez, the media need to use their heads in this crisis.
Vallance & Whitty were explicit on TV. They said the numbers showed a bigger increase, particularly in London, and that influenced the timing of the actions they had already planned to take - which was the approach they laid out last week.
Yesterday Scotland's Chief Medical Officer slapped down Piers Knobhead Morgan after he berated him for not shutting down schools and banning people meeting together. "When did you get your PhD in Public Health Piers?. Spot on.
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@Victor-Meldrew Yeah, I watched that. After 20 mins of him, I turned it off. Usually find it entertaining as I agree with almost all of his opinions.
But he's taking the fact the government won't speak to him very badly.
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Used to live near Brackley which is bang in the middle of the UK motorsport industy (which is bloody huge). and full of hi-tech companies used to quick turn-round times
Heard yesterday they are starting to produce ventilators and medical kit.
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.
I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.
I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.
That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........
In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.
The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.
One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.
Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.
IS NZ planning anything similar?
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@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.
And it is reported that the virus doesn't do well at temperatures of over 25 degrees C.
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A few holiday villages near us have seen a huge drop in bookings. I'd imagine they'd extend their Jan-Feb hibernate mode until Summer when hopefully the crisis will have lifted.
People will still want to spend money, so their overall income will be the same but cash-flow could be a problem
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.
I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.
I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.
That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........
In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.
The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.
One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.
Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.
IS NZ planning anything similar?
At this stage there's two main things for business: (from https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/121-billion-support-new-zealanders-and-business)
- $2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cashflow, including a provisional tax threshold lift, the reinstatement of building depreciation and writing off interest on the late payment of tax
- $5.1 billion in wage subsidies for affected businesses in all sectors and regions, available from today, and $126 million in COVID-19 leave and self-isolation support
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@Victor-Meldrew I think your area is going to be a absolutely smoking it this summer.
People will get over most of the craze quite quickly, but I suspect there will be aeroplane anxiety for a while yet.
Somewhere you can drive to will be hugely in demand.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.
And it is reported that the virus doesn't do well at tempertaures of over 25 degrees C.
Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.
And it is reported that the virus doesn't do well at tempertaures of over 25 degrees C.
Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....
Singapore seems to have coped well.
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Mrs M's parents are 88 & 84, not in a good way and are self-isolating. Their other daughter, who drops by most days, works as a teacher and is dropping their groceries by the door. No physical contact.
A nurse used to visit twice a week but that has stopped. The nurse has explained that she's tested negative, but as she visits multiple people, she'd need a test every day and that really isn't practical.
The NHS had said it's getting in touch to offer tailored advice. We've been told visiting is OK but no physical contact, loads of handwashing and 1.5 m distance, so that will help.
The thing we really need to work-out is hygiene and washing themselves. Once we get that we could well be OK.
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@Rembrandt said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Everyone is getting a lens adjustment to see the world in a different way over the next few weeks. God knows how some of the more pampered fragile folk are going to handle it.
The thorny issue of trans-gender toilet rights seems to have become pretty passe hasn't it?
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.
I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.
I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.
That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........
In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.
The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.
One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.
Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.
IS NZ planning anything similar?
At this stage there's two main things for business: (from https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/121-billion-support-new-zealanders-and-business)
- $2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cashflow, including a provisional tax threshold lift, the reinstatement of building depreciation and writing off interest on the late payment of tax
- $5.1 billion in wage subsidies for affected businesses in all sectors and regions, available from today, and $126 million in COVID-19 leave and self-isolation support
Also, the additional money into the economy benefits business because it gets spent, so increased benefits (and the like) help business indirectly as well.
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@Frank said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....
Singapore seems to have coped well.
Singapore skill level - Asian
They did not fuck around by all accounts. They are one of the main asian hubs so got a heavy influx of Chinese travellers so they had a fair amount of ground to make up
Coronavirus - Overall