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@Tim although post-Covid that will look different to previous seasons I'd expect. Where many of the at risk folks might have already passed due to Corona? Flu deaths may actually be lower due to heightened vigilance about hygiene and the (positive) hangover of isolation.
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@Tim said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I’d be interested in data on how Italy normally copes with flu season and how many people die. Would be good to put their experiences into context.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
This is a 3 year study I found. 68000 deaths from 5,290,000 cases of flu in total, 22700 per year. Coronavirus death total is close to 11000 from 100000 total cases right now.
Looks like Italy always has a higher than average mortality rate due to their aging population. Combine that with no immunity to a new pathogen and things get ugly fast
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - Australia:
So to answer your question, I'd say once we are confident our health system can cope with the increased demand we can then start re-opening.
Which I think you'll acknowledge isn't actually an answer...
What is missing on this side of the ditch is a clear indication to Australians that we need to x for this long in order to achieve the desired end-state.
We have 585 ICU beds in the entire country, according to the article Stargazer linked to earlier today.
I think the most I’ve seen in use from the virus is around 12. So for us it’s charting the expected peak use of that from the increase in cases. (And having spare capacity for normal medical cases)
Once we have passed that, and have more wider and quicker testing, we will move to targeted lockdowns for outbreak areas.
So they have a plan for ending it, it depends on how well the lockdown has been adhered to.
I’m expecting them to add another two weeks on when they check the progress after 14 days.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Is that australia wide data or just NSW?
All Australia. Sourced here: https://www.covid19data.com.au/
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - Australia:
So to answer your question, I'd say once we are confident our health system can cope with the increased demand we can then start re-opening.
Which I think you'll acknowledge isn't actually an answer...
What is missing on this side of the ditch is a clear indication to Australians that we need to x for this long in order to achieve the desired end-state.
We have 585 ICU beds in the entire country, according to the article Stargazer linked to earlier today.
I think the most I’ve seen in use from the virus is around 12. So for us it’s charting the expected peak use of that from the increase in cases. (And having spare capacity for normal medical cases)
Once we have passed that, and have more wider and quicker testing, we will move to targeted lockdowns for outbreak areas.
So they have a plan for ending it, it depends on how well the lockdown has been adhered to.
I’m expecting them to add another two weeks on when they check the progress after 14 days.
Is that being well communicated in NZ, because unless I'm missing the announcements, it isn't here. What would make it more palatable would be a daily explanation of the remaining capacity and the date by which we would overcome our ability to treat serious cases. This would also assist people in understanding how long these restrictions were expected to remain in place.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
What is missing on this side of the ditch is a clear indication to Australians that we need to x for this long in order to achieve the desired end-state.
Quoted at yesterday's press conference was "up to 6 months". Not exactly concrete, but what do you propose?
Remember this is a government operating on slogans and a populace that doesn't want a flowchart.
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@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
What is missing on this side of the ditch is a clear indication to Australians that we need to x for this long in order to achieve the desired end-state.
Quoted at yesterday's press conference was "up to 6 months". Not exactly concrete, but what do you propose?
I propose something workable. I'm not the only person who won't put up with not being able to travel to see friends and family, have a drink, celebrate life etc.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - Australia:
So to answer your question, I'd say once we are confident our health system can cope with the increased demand we can then start re-opening.
Which I think you'll acknowledge isn't actually an answer...
What is missing on this side of the ditch is a clear indication to Australians that we need to x for this long in order to achieve the desired end-state.
We have 585 ICU beds in the entire country, according to the article Stargazer linked to earlier today.
I think the most I’ve seen in use from the virus is around 12. So for us it’s charting the expected peak use of that from the increase in cases. (And having spare capacity for normal medical cases)
Once we have passed that, and have more wider and quicker testing, we will move to targeted lockdowns for outbreak areas.
So they have a plan for ending it, it depends on how well the lockdown has been adhered to.
I’m expecting them to add another two weeks on when they check the progress after 14 days.
Is that being well communicated in NZ, because unless I'm missing the announcements, it isn't here. What would make it more palatable would be a daily explanation of the remaining capacity and the date by which we would overcome our ability to treat serious cases. This would also assist people in understanding how long these restrictions were expected to remain in place.
Yep, the entire point is to prevent overwelming the health system. We get daily briefings on what is expected, and it's clearly communicated that we won't see the impact of the lockdown for at least 14 days from when it started.
They are less specific of the timing aspect as it's reliant on the lockdown impact. So I'm expecting after 14 days to start hearing phrases like a few more weeks may be necessary.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
What is missing on this side of the ditch is a clear indication to Australians that we need to x for this long in order to achieve the desired end-state.
Quoted at yesterday's press conference was "up to 6 months". Not exactly concrete, but what do you propose?
I propose something workable.
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Which I think you'll acknowledge isn't actually an answer...
I meant: do you think there should be something like an initial timeframe given with conditions for rolling them back e.g. "X weeks under Level Y, using this list of conditions and then if the case load is Z we go back to Level (Y-1)"
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@rotated said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Consumer confidence is in the gutter and discresionary spend is as close to zero is is possible irregardless of it they are technically "open" or not.
I own an home decorating store (in NZ so might be a bit different to OZ). We took 2 and a half weeks sales in 2 days before the lockdown - on paint alone. So well over a months paint went out the door. The other sides of the business will suffer but that alone meant that I don't have to lay off staff yet.
People will divert their discretionary spending if they can't take holidays, flights, etc. Four weeks off seems to mean paint the house, especially if it looks like shit and you are confined in it. I suspect that we will get a rebound on the custom made stuff as well when we can get out to do the work. The best thing about that is the spend stays in NZ. Having the borders closed could help some parts of the local economy. Small consolation for others, the hospitality and tourism sectors are poked, but those dollars will most likely flow elsewhere not stop altogether.
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@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
What is missing on this side of the ditch is a clear indication to Australians that we need to x for this long in order to achieve the desired end-state.
Quoted at yesterday's press conference was "up to 6 months". Not exactly concrete, but what do you propose?
I propose something workable.
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Which I think you'll acknowledge isn't actually an answer...
I meant: do you think there should be something like an initial timeframe given with conditions for rolling them back e.g. "X weeks under Level Y, using this list of conditions and then if the case load is Z we go back to Level (Y-1)"
Definitely. It gives people confidence that this isn't a kneejerk clusterfuck. "We have to get to this point and the sooner we do that, the sooner you can go back to work/ attend a wedding/ have a birthday party/ go to the pub/ play footy etc."
I'll also point out that had they put in the minor effort to enforce self-isolation and quarantine, we wouldn't have to lock up society to the extent we have.
Meanwhile the world has had the most successful Earth Hour since its inception. Because nothing's working. Here you go Greenies, this is what a zero emission economy looks like.
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@antipodean certainly would like some certainty on my planned NZ trip in 9 weeks. Or refunds for flights etc.
At the moment, AirNZ have cancellations listed out to end of ?May? but first week in June is TBD.
Either way, travel insurance cutoff was 31st Jan which is fair enough from their pov.
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@NTA I can't even calculate the admin we have spent amending then cancelling our Japan ski trip. I spent 4 hours yesterday on live chat with Jetstar because they had sent an email saying I could cancel one of our flights for a full refund (they changed the flight time) but then reneged. They tried everything to justify not refunding me, claiming the flight change was not material, asking me to upload a copy of their email, and even asking for private information from me like documentation supporting "the purpose" of my trip.
Absolutely disgusting behaviour. Didn't even get a resolution as I had to leave the chat to do some kid stuff.
Infuriating.
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@booboo I'm on the GC. It looks much worse in Sydney, regarding social distancing and how it's being flouted. By all ages, I might add.
There is no doubt that deaths have and will continue to occur in the younger age brackets but the majority is horrendously one-sided.
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@NTA Did you get an email from Air NZ about getting credits for your flights? They will hold a credit for you until you can rebook.
I doubt that we will be taking overseas travelers for a while (although Oz might be O.K if they have it under control and we do too). Most of the hotels were also offering free cancellation - even for prepaid.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Snowy my neighbour said they only hold the credit for a year (from when you take the refund)
Correct. But they keep changing the rules as the situation changes. If we are still restricted in travel in a year I would like to think they will extend again. The only thing I think you lose is the credit card fee and taxes; I don't know why because if you aren't flying for reasons outside your control why should you pay the tax?
Coronavirus - Australia