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@Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Anonymous said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 3 lets more people go to work, but it's hardly a huge improvement on level 4 in terms of the cage doors opening.
However, in good news, apparently, not only is our curve flattening, it's exponentially reducing - halving every 5 days. At this rate, we are probably looking at a total of 6-8 weeks at levels 3&4 (so another 2-4 weeks) and then back to level 2.
The rest of the world is rightly envious of that, because they're generally looking at months of the equivalent of level 3+. 4 weeks seems a bit early to be rolling out the civil liberties flag - human rights and civil liberties are critically important to the NZ democracy, but the most important right is the right to life because the rest are not much use to dead people.
And a cratered economy is a damn sight harder on people on the other side.
This is exactly the sort of scare mongering that drove that poll result.
The original justification for this lockdown was not to eliminate the disease but to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved and over the last four weeks process and capacity has been added to help even more with that.
So let’s move down the levels fast, test appropriately, contain regional reoccurrence, and get back to normalise life.
Even today Cindy was downplaying the huge impact this is having on the economy. “Doing in tough” is not even close to what’s coming IMO.
I think when level 4 started we didn't think it would be as successful as it has been. Now we have a chance to actually eliminate this from New Zealand. The worst thing we could do would be to go down the levels quickly and have it spread. Then you go back to level 4 or have unfettered community transmission and what we have done so far will be for nothing. We have the chance to get back to "normal" in NZ and we should take that if possible.
I think this highlights a choice to be made.
If the aim is elimination, which is likely to take longer than expected, there is a case for more Level 4, and probably extended Level 3. Economic cost VERY high.
At the other end is getting down rapidly to Swedish levels of lockdown, with borders closed. There might be 100 deaths a week, and economy would still be subdued, but in FAR better shape than under first alternative.
There is no cake and eat it too.
From where I sit the latter path is far preferable.
The problem, if elimination is the aim, is when do you give up on it. The effort towards elimination is a sunk cost if it's not able to be eliminated (or will cost more than the country can afford) but I can see people using it as a justification to stick with it. It's very easy to see level 4 extending out indefinitely if elimination doesn't occur.
And if you give up on elimination you have to go with option 2 but in a worse position than if you went with it originally. So how much are we willing to put towards a failed elimination attempt?
I'd be prepared to put in 2 more weeks, if that were the decision.
But, I'm still in 2 minds. Not sure its achievable.
With the (still probably imperfect) information we now have to base decisions. I'd be comfortable using Australian data that moving to L3 is OK.
Sameige. I'm happy enough with what has happened thus far but keen to start moving forward.
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@Hooroo ha I get that, but it just surprised me that nearly all your chicken suppliers are halal. I've never even thought about it before. A lot of places in UK say "our meat is not halal" etc now I'd be interested to know if the majority of ours is too... Just found it interesting is all.
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one of the issues is, what if they extend it, and we find ourselves in 2 weeks still getting 5 or 10 new cases a day, despite what the modelling has predicted...given we are currently ahead of the modelling predictions anyway
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@shark one trade can still have multiple persons on site
Yes. But one trade. Eg the insulation installers can be there, and there can be as many of them as can be socially distanced and still work, but no other trades. Presumably the building contractor can remain on site.
I'd be surprised if trades didn't throw more staff at each job to make it go quicker, possibly at the main contractors' behest.
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I supported the initial stern lockdown while they figured shit out. I support an easing of restrictions now to allow safe activity (with oversight to weed out the dicks) and get the economy moving in a forward direction, plus support to get small/med businesses more tech and online savvy.
But one thing - if I see another article circle jerking over Cindy being the world's greatest leader, I will spew. It's getting quite ridiculous. She has a lot going for her that other countries don't, and certainly has gotten stuff wrong.
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Personally, a change to L3 means fuck all for me/us in terms of 'opening the cage door'. I'll be working from home until we're past L2 and the kids will be at home until L3 is over. Daily life will actually be worse as I'll be busy AF once L4 is lifted (it's aleady started) and we'll have the kids to educate / entertain. Wonderful. But at least we can grab a take-away coffee and order some Chinese on Uber Eats (I'll have to download the app again!) I love cooking but I need a fucking night off!
For mine, I'd like to see L3 on Thursday purely for the sake of the economy but if it's Tuesday week then so be it. No longer though or quite simply the economic and social cost of being at L4 will outweigh the benefit in limiting the virus. It probably has already.
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@shark said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'll be busy AF once L4 is lifted (it's aleady started) and we'll have the kids to educate / entertain.
this is my life, and it fucking sucks
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@mariner4life I'm already busy AF and that's only going to ramp up further. Meant to be working part-time hours while on parental leave, but with everyone working online the mahi just comes through thick and fast. So that has actually made things harder to balance
Getting Ms 3 to childcare would make a huge difference but that feels a ways off as yet.
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New Zealander’s are being asked to keep a diary of where they have been and who they have been in contact with.
Is that for real?
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@antipodean yes, is a suggestion
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Is there anything else in the Stasi playbook Ardern is looking at?
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
New Zealander’s are being asked to keep a diary of where they have been and who they have been in contact with.
Is that for real?
it's the only way you can contact trace sensibly I think. Can see it at L2 as well.
Remember at L3 it'll only be people through work you interact with that you really have to connect to - bubbles basically stay small other than work.
Edit: and hence why I'm so surprised that there is the aversion to relaxation - it's not that different to L4 for personal situations
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Is there anything else in the Stasi playbook Ardern is looking at?
Oh, you have no idea...
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/17/1132682/nz-considering-100m-contact-tracing-covidcard
"Ihre Papiere bitte"
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@shark said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'll be busy AF once L4 is lifted (it's aleady started) and we'll have the kids to educate / entertain.
this is my life, and it fucking sucks
We have 2 girls here ( 7 and 9) and home schooling goes from being pretty good we got this to WW3 in a matter of minutes. I can imagine how much fun it would be with 2 boys as well
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@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
If we go down to level 4 at the right time, we will never have to go back up again.
That's not a given, is it? There are suggestions that having had the disease does not necessarily confer immunity. What if we do all this and there's no point?
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@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/17/1132682/nz-considering-100m-contact-tracing-covidcard
They can fuck right off with identity cards.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/17/1132682/nz-considering-100m-contact-tracing-covidcard
They can fuck right off with identity cards.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/17/1132682/nz-considering-100m-contact-tracing-covidcard
They can fuck right off with identity cards.
I'm OK with temporary cards that have a clear sunset date that are optional
... and only if this lets us restart our economy and let us go out and drink in bars and eat fried chicken
Coronavirus - New Zealand