-
@Duluth said in NZ Politics:
Oh it’s definitely a virus bump (plus Bridges poor media persona)
The changing incentives for the Greens and NZF should make the race nasty
Bridges has fallen into the same trap as his predecessor. I still remember Bill saying in one of the election debates last time that the election, in his opinion, was not a popularity contest
-
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Duluth said in NZ Politics:
Oh it’s definitely a virus bump (plus Bridges poor media persona)
The changing incentives for the Greens and NZF should make the race nasty
Bridges has fallen into the same trap as his predecessor. I still remember Bill saying in one of the election debates last time that the election, in his opinion, was not a popularity contest
That would make Bill a terrible politician. Asking for more people to vote for you than someone else is a perfect example of a popularity contest.
-
@antipodean said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Duluth said in NZ Politics:
Oh it’s definitely a virus bump (plus Bridges poor media persona)
The changing incentives for the Greens and NZF should make the race nasty
Bridges has fallen into the same trap as his predecessor. I still remember Bill saying in one of the election debates last time that the election, in his opinion, was not a popularity contest
That would make Bill a terrible politician. Asking for more people to vote for you than someone else is a perfect example of a popularity contest.
He was trying to make an argument for style over substance I think. But there are lots of people that probably voted for Cindy because she appeared fresh and cool. They certainly didn't vote for Labour based on their sizeable battle ready caucus
-
@canefan a stale message doesn't resonate with the electorate terribly well in my experience. Politicians should keep in mind the aphorisms 'systematic organisation of hatreds' and 'people tend to vote against rather than for'. So if you've been in power for some time, you need to keep giving them reason to stay engaged. Otherwise once they're tired, something shiny and new is appealing. Having no charisma hastens your demise.
-
@antipodean said in NZ Politics:
@canefan a stale message doesn't resonate with the electorate terribly well in my experience. Politicians should keep in mind the aphorisms 'systematic organisation of hatreds' and 'people tend to vote against rather than for'. So if you've been in power for some time, you need to keep giving them reason to stay engaged. Otherwise once they're tired, something shiny and new is appealing. Having no charisma hastens your demise.
John Key saw the future and quit while he was ahead. Bill was the solid dependable uncharismatic leader you talk about. In hindsight he could have put someone like Nikki Kaye in as his Cindy-Killer (2-0 don't you know), or Kaye and Adams as his Natfembots, put them out there to capture soundbites and smile while attacking Cindy, and focussed on being the straight guy. Still might not have worked, but going on TV and cooking Watties spaghetti pizzas definitely never cut it.
Bridges is even worse, rather than being vanilla he is perceived as totally unlikeable by much of the electorate, including many Nats voters. Whoever takes over is going to have to think outside the box to create enough of a splash to move the needle, I've yet to see anything that makes me think the current crop has it in them and they already have a huge covid sized hill to climb
-
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
Doesn’t help that Paula Bennett is waiting in the wings for a shot at being leader. Good MP IMO, but not leadership material.
Muller doesn't sound like an attention grabber either. At least John Key was known while Brash was still leader. But who knows, maybe given the chance, he has a bit of personality. That is what is required
-
@Duluth Adjusted for the 16% undecideds/unknowns:
Labour Party - 49.5%
National Party - 24.5%
Green Party - 3.9%
New Zealand First - 2.4%
ACT - 1.9%1 in 6 voters still to decide leaves a bit of room for everyone to improve yet. I can't see Labour retaining that level of support, but if they do, it's a guaranteed majority government (because the parties not getting into Parliament mean Labour would have a majority of the votes for parties that met the threshold) even if nobody else votes for them.
English reminded me a bit of Little - not particularly inspiring, but not actively disliked. Bridges, unfortunately, reminds me of Cunliffe - actively loathed and not even popular with some of his own party supporters.
Was at dinner tonight with mum, stepfather, sister and BIL, and my stepfather, a National supporter normally but also not normally that animated about politics, was absolutely putting the boot into Bridges tonight.
Preferred PM:
Ardern - 61%
Bridges - 5%
Collins - 3%
Peters - 1%Net approval ratings:
Ardern: 76%
Bridges: -40% (negative 40%)Ardern now has the highest approval rating ever, the biggest gap ever, and the highest preferred PM scores for both major polls still running regularly.
-
Barring any major mis-steps between now and the election Labour will get another term unless National comes up with something really solid and better in the way of recovery policies. Relying on 'we are the better people when it comes to money stuff' won't wash unless Labour start looking really incompetent.
I think voters will really start to appreciate the position NZ is in after the handling of this crisis too. While other countries start taking risks and continue with stunted halfway restrictions because they can't wait any longer and the population is getting restless, we will be back pretty much to normal (albeit behind a closed border).
We will be looking back and saying 'they got the main part right'.
Where is all the talk about not needing to go so hard compared to Oz now? They are now more restricted than us and although they have done well they haven't cleared the spread up enough to go back to normal life. It was always said that the hard and horrible tactic would see us coming back out quickly.
We could have been in a much worse position and I think that feeling of appreciation will maintain enough of this current high.
Apart from being on the 'right' side of the fence for all those that hate anything on the 'left' side, what are National offering as better solutions or management for recovery? So far I have not heard a peep about alternatives to the Labour moves just complaints.
Better to follow the person with a plan or the one just complaining about it. Plenty of survival anecdotes in history show that the first option usually comes out the best. -
@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
Where is all the talk about not needing to go so hard compared to Oz now? They are now more restricted than us and although they have done well they haven't cleared the spread up enough to go back to normal life. It was always said that the hard and horrible tactic would see us coming back out quickly.
They've basically wound up in teh same place - 6 new cases yesterday, and without the massive lockdown. I think lockdown was a good call, but the critique is always how quickly we can come out of it, and the damage done in the mean time.
National aren't a patch on what they were. The people they leaned on to get into politics in the early 2000's were remarkable- the team of Key, Ryall, Joyce with English all had great experience a good brains. Less sold on the political dirgible of Brownlee, but Finlayson has an amazing mind.
The current crop don't seem nearly as competent frankly
-
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
Doesn’t help that Paula Bennett is waiting in the wings for a shot at being leader. Good MP IMO, but not leadership material.
Muller doesn't sound like an attention grabber either. At least John Key was known while Brash was still leader. But who knows, maybe given the chance, he has a bit of personality. That is what is required
Muller's very very impressive from the little I have seen of him
Excellent speaker. Far and away better than Keys. As for Bridges. He comes across as a young lad and certainly not a potential PM. Ive bene away from NZ but wonder how he got this position
Image. Good. He kills Bridges. One seems like a likeable intelligent articulate man. The other an excitable smiling boy
If National don't go for him as leader (Bridges is hopeless) they need their heads read. Unsure how NZ will take to him though (I believe a lot will respect and like him) but he will show Ardern's weaknesses up in a head to head. Bridges never will. Bridges will make her look much better than she is. Like David Lange (Muller) made Muldoon look weak and silly. Whereas Bill Rowling's made Muldoon look a lot more powerful than he was.
-
Labour were always likely to get a second term. The lack of a coalition partner is still their seemingly insurmountable weakness. Their odds improved when National appointed Bridges and have pretty much become a lock in since lockdown.
Given Nats are going to start losing talent and Labour should get some more - the question for me is more about can they recover for 2023. If I was the Leader I'd be hoping for a credible response this time so I could say look at the improvement i made in only a few short months - give me another crack. Then I'd been working on electoral law reform with all the minor parties to get the 5% threshold lowered, with a view to doing a deal with the Monster Raving Looney Party or whoever.
-
@Tim said in NZ Politics:
It will be interesting to see if there's a lockdown mk 2 in 2021. That would radically change the electoral situation.
not in 2021 ... too late by then. Later this year, though.
God I hope not. We need to get out of this fast, and get our economy going again. A rising tide and all that...
-
TBH, I am not sure this is the right time for a leadership challenge, as @Crucial says, barring somethign catastrophic, Labour will win, meaning whoever is in the seat for National will be under pressure then as well, may as well leave Bridges at the helm, cos his days are numbered anyway.
I'd be more inclined to hold off a challenge until post election, that way Bridges could also step aside gracefully instead of holding onto what is currently a sinking ship.
-
@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
TBH, I am not sure this is the right time for a leadership challenge, as @Crucial says, barring somethign catastrophic, Labour will win, meaning whoever is in the seat for National will be under pressure then as well, may as well leave Bridges at the helm, cos his days are numbered anyway.
I'd be more inclined to hold off a challenge until post election, that way Bridges could also step aside gracefully instead of holding onto what is currently a sinking ship.
Worked for Cindy. If National stay this low it’s no risk for the new leader really, can blame Bridges.
-
@Kirwan it did, not sure it would again though.
You may be right in terms of deflecting onto Simon.
If she hadnt tied herself to Bridges, I think Bennet would have been one of those having a crack at the top job too, but I think she, like Collins is too polarising.
-
NZ Politics