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Barring any major mis-steps between now and the election Labour will get another term unless National comes up with something really solid and better in the way of recovery policies. Relying on 'we are the better people when it comes to money stuff' won't wash unless Labour start looking really incompetent.
I think voters will really start to appreciate the position NZ is in after the handling of this crisis too. While other countries start taking risks and continue with stunted halfway restrictions because they can't wait any longer and the population is getting restless, we will be back pretty much to normal (albeit behind a closed border).
We will be looking back and saying 'they got the main part right'.
Where is all the talk about not needing to go so hard compared to Oz now? They are now more restricted than us and although they have done well they haven't cleared the spread up enough to go back to normal life. It was always said that the hard and horrible tactic would see us coming back out quickly.
We could have been in a much worse position and I think that feeling of appreciation will maintain enough of this current high.
Apart from being on the 'right' side of the fence for all those that hate anything on the 'left' side, what are National offering as better solutions or management for recovery? So far I have not heard a peep about alternatives to the Labour moves just complaints.
Better to follow the person with a plan or the one just complaining about it. Plenty of survival anecdotes in history show that the first option usually comes out the best. -
@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
Where is all the talk about not needing to go so hard compared to Oz now? They are now more restricted than us and although they have done well they haven't cleared the spread up enough to go back to normal life. It was always said that the hard and horrible tactic would see us coming back out quickly.
They've basically wound up in teh same place - 6 new cases yesterday, and without the massive lockdown. I think lockdown was a good call, but the critique is always how quickly we can come out of it, and the damage done in the mean time.
National aren't a patch on what they were. The people they leaned on to get into politics in the early 2000's were remarkable- the team of Key, Ryall, Joyce with English all had great experience a good brains. Less sold on the political dirgible of Brownlee, but Finlayson has an amazing mind.
The current crop don't seem nearly as competent frankly
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan said in NZ Politics:
Doesn’t help that Paula Bennett is waiting in the wings for a shot at being leader. Good MP IMO, but not leadership material.
Muller doesn't sound like an attention grabber either. At least John Key was known while Brash was still leader. But who knows, maybe given the chance, he has a bit of personality. That is what is required
Muller's very very impressive from the little I have seen of him
Excellent speaker. Far and away better than Keys. As for Bridges. He comes across as a young lad and certainly not a potential PM. Ive bene away from NZ but wonder how he got this position
Image. Good. He kills Bridges. One seems like a likeable intelligent articulate man. The other an excitable smiling boy
If National don't go for him as leader (Bridges is hopeless) they need their heads read. Unsure how NZ will take to him though (I believe a lot will respect and like him) but he will show Ardern's weaknesses up in a head to head. Bridges never will. Bridges will make her look much better than she is. Like David Lange (Muller) made Muldoon look weak and silly. Whereas Bill Rowling's made Muldoon look a lot more powerful than he was.
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Labour were always likely to get a second term. The lack of a coalition partner is still their seemingly insurmountable weakness. Their odds improved when National appointed Bridges and have pretty much become a lock in since lockdown.
Given Nats are going to start losing talent and Labour should get some more - the question for me is more about can they recover for 2023. If I was the Leader I'd be hoping for a credible response this time so I could say look at the improvement i made in only a few short months - give me another crack. Then I'd been working on electoral law reform with all the minor parties to get the 5% threshold lowered, with a view to doing a deal with the Monster Raving Looney Party or whoever.
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@Tim said in NZ Politics:
It will be interesting to see if there's a lockdown mk 2 in 2021. That would radically change the electoral situation.
not in 2021 ... too late by then. Later this year, though.
God I hope not. We need to get out of this fast, and get our economy going again. A rising tide and all that...
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TBH, I am not sure this is the right time for a leadership challenge, as @Crucial says, barring somethign catastrophic, Labour will win, meaning whoever is in the seat for National will be under pressure then as well, may as well leave Bridges at the helm, cos his days are numbered anyway.
I'd be more inclined to hold off a challenge until post election, that way Bridges could also step aside gracefully instead of holding onto what is currently a sinking ship.
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
TBH, I am not sure this is the right time for a leadership challenge, as @Crucial says, barring somethign catastrophic, Labour will win, meaning whoever is in the seat for National will be under pressure then as well, may as well leave Bridges at the helm, cos his days are numbered anyway.
I'd be more inclined to hold off a challenge until post election, that way Bridges could also step aside gracefully instead of holding onto what is currently a sinking ship.
Worked for Cindy. If National stay this low it’s no risk for the new leader really, can blame Bridges.
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@Kirwan it did, not sure it would again though.
You may be right in terms of deflecting onto Simon.
If she hadnt tied herself to Bridges, I think Bennet would have been one of those having a crack at the top job too, but I think she, like Collins is too polarising.
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@Godder said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan A difference was that Little saw similar results to these, knew he wasn't the answer, and arranged the transition himself (he resigned and nominated Ardern for leader). Bridges has had to be pushed, which always looks worse.
If it is done then it is relatively bloodless. Contrast what happened with Cunliffe, that was very harmful
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
If it is done then it is relatively bloodless. Contrast what happened with Cunliffe, that was very harmful
It is done - and good luck to Muller. Mammoth task.
Shearer and Bridges felt a bit similar - in other circumstances, they may well have had a real crack at it, but just never got a connection to the electorate. Bridges really struggled with the blink test, just didn't engage the casual voter, and absolutely killed by crises happening that played to Jacinda's empathy and communication strengths.
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@Donsteppa said in NZ Politics:
I’m not sure that Muller can turn things around for National by September. However, I’ve thought for a while that he was the best National MP in Tauranga by far.
Doesn't come across well (so far). Bit of a chancer. May be competent but lacks a connection with people.
However, Bridges got mullered, so the caucus must see something in him.
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@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
@Donsteppa said in NZ Politics:
I’m not sure that Muller can turn things around for National by September. However, I’ve thought for a while that he was the best National MP in Tauranga by far.
Doesn't come across well (so far). Bit of a chancer. May be competent but lacks a connection with people.
However, Bridges got mullered, so the caucus must see something in him.
Bridges was hopeless. almost embarrassingly bad
Muller is impressive. And the contrast with Bridges is massive
Jacinda will have a challenge now as opposed to no concerns before. And a young female as a deputy. Could be a formidable team -
@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
@Donsteppa said in NZ Politics:
I’m not sure that Muller can turn things around for National by September. However, I’ve thought for a while that he was the best National MP in Tauranga by far.
Doesn't come across well (so far). Bit of a chancer. May be competent but lacks a connection with people.
My experience so far is that he connects well in person. I suspect their electoral chances might have been better with Nikki in charge and Todd as deputy, but I think either way is stronger than the Simon and Paula team.
I was surprised at how low Simon ranked Todd in his original caucus, so perhaps this has been brewing prior to Simon taking charge.
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@Winger said in NZ Politics:
@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
@Donsteppa said in NZ Politics:
I’m not sure that Muller can turn things around for National by September. However, I’ve thought for a while that he was the best National MP in Tauranga by far.
Doesn't come across well (so far). Bit of a chancer. May be competent but lacks a connection with people.
However, Bridges got mullered, so the caucus must see something in him.
Bridges was hopeless. almost embarrassingly bad
Muller is impressive. And the contrast with Bridges is massive
Jacinda will have a challenge now as opposed to no concerns before. And a young female as a deputy. Could be a formidable teamNo denying that Bridges was useless but I'd love to hear your reasoning behind 'Muller is impressive'.
Are you just going off first appearances or do you have some background that we aren't aware off?
I'm only asking because most of us know SFA about the guy.
Isn't he famous for upsetting farmers by helping push through the Zero Carbon Bill?
We know that he is apparently a Boomer.
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@Tim I heard this today. I have a co-worker from a Canterbury farming family. He's pro-National and his father is a national party member. He said it's a poison chalice with juggernaut Ardern to go up against and that his dad thinks Todd Mcleay MP for Rotorua was a potential leader in waiting.
I know nothing about anything in NZ politics so please feel free to enlighten me
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