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I do think Collins is a fairly good choice. Tough, which she is going to need most trying to wrangle the factions of the fractured Nats together. Soimon supporters, Muller supporters, those who don't like her, those who want a fresh face...gonna be a bit of a nightmare. All while being Judith rather than Crusher. Good luck to her. Too bad she won't be able to offer baby or wedding pics.
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Fighting words from Crusher, so much more assured in front of the press than Todd
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@Virgil said in NZ Politics:
Sounds cruel but I’d love to see how Crusher would go as leader.
Either way the millions that will be spent on this years election does seem like a waste of money now.
Go me, in a politics thread of all places too
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@rotated Mitchell was the only other contender for leader. Deputy was contested but don't know who else stood.
Labour has a stuffy white guy as Deputy too. I don't think that matters a much as the Chch rebuild taint.
I think National's only hope of winning is t adopt the following strategy
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Immediately rule out working with NZF. Stop any right leaning voter going with them and hope they fail to get 5%
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Hammer the govt on the economy. Have 5 broad attack points and keep to them. Everyone stays on script no more fuck ups.
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Collins goes hard but attacks policy not person. Look authoritative not belligerent and substantial not presidential
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Shore up the Nat vote - these two have been chosen to do that. By all accounts. Collins is quite popular with the party at large. They have had her as leader after English - it was her caucus that stymied her
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Hope the above gives them close to where they poled in 2017 and that ACT can bring in 5 or 6 MP's and its game on.
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A total fuck up at the border - say a community outbreak would help too....
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@dogmeat the challenge for national is that they need to pick up the swing voters who have headed to Labour.
Judith isn't seen as a natural for that - she'll have to defy expectations and warm up the population. Basically she needs to go full Clarke/English and just exude competence everywhere, stay on policy, stay on detail, and stay on a plan that actually shows vision for our country.
After Muller got elected, the best they came up with was $10k for businesses to employ someone new. FFS, that's poor. Someone said (prior to this) if Labour proposed Communism, National would argue they'd manage it better. IT's hard - present a competent alternative governement, and do it in 10 weeks from a standing start. Can't see it happening.
the big question is what happens to Winston. Do swing labour drift there to avoid a Labour/Greens coalition that could be further left than most people want?
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@rotated Mitchell was the only other contender for leader. Deputy was contested but don't know who else stood.
Labour has a stuffy white guy as Deputy too. I don't think that matters a much as the Chch rebuild taint.
I think National's only hope of winning is t adopt the following strategy
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Immediately rule out working with NZF. Stop any right leaning voter going with them and hope they fail to get 5%
-
Hammer the govt on the economy. Have 5 broad attack points and keep to them. Everyone stays on script no more fuck ups.
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Collins goes hard but attacks policy not person. Look authoritative not belligerent and substantial not presidential
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Shore up the Nat vote - these two have been chosen to do that. By all accounts. Collins is quite popular with the party at large. They have had her as leader after English - it was her caucus that stymied her
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Hope the above gives them close to where they poled in 2017 and that ACT can bring in 5 or 6 MP's and its game on.
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A total fuck up at the border - say a community outbreak would help too....
Isn't it Kelvin Davis?
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Timing isn’t great here for the Nats.
I don’t mean just the short period to the election, they can do and say plenty in that time.
What they have to overcome is that Labour’s recovery plans (good or not) are underway and given the delay in getting infrastructure projects started not many would want a new govt putting a hold on things while they make changes -
Bridges almost got to the right message IMHO
"Labour has done an good job handling the crisis' they have faced....but going forward a economy focused National government is whats needed"...and then go on to talk about all the stuff they will do
you dont piss off the swing voters by coming out too confrontational, you concede that people weren't wrong when they liked Jacinda and you set a platform to move forward positively...
the reality is they come out and say they have to fix all the stuff they think Labour has broken...and then people will feel disconnected frm them and they'll loose
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@dogmeat first tipping, now this...might be time pal!
At least in recent times when Judith is interviewed, she is smiling, whereas a few years back she always had a stern look on her, which wasnt welcoming.
But agree with what @nzzp says too, exude confidence, attack policy, stay away from pointing at cindy (right or wrong)
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@taniwharugby ha ha but that smile! equal parts smarmy and predatory! as much directed at internal Nat naysayers as anyone else I reckon. She has the experience and toughness but unsure how well the rest will be received by voters, traditionally Nat voters or otherwise.
But I think she will literally bite the finger off anyone that tries to leak info or otherwise undermine her. Fair play I reckon!
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@Chris-B This will be her only chance. Luxton is on the horizon, she has a chance to save the party from annihilation
A thing I learned today from google is that it's Luxon. I had in mind he was some part of the Luxton "dynasty"as well.
It's actually reasonable timing for Judith - she might not quite get a mulligan for losing this coming election, but if she performs credibly she's got a reasonable case to stay on given that right now it looks close to unwinnable.
Aside from which, who else could they appoint immediately post-election?
Luxon is going to need some time to learn the ropes and prove that he'd actually be any good.
Judith has just beaten out Mitchell.
Brownlee? Goldsmith?
If it's a debacle the axe would doubtless fall, but anything else she should stay on.
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@Paekakboyz yeah she still has that hard smile, but I do think she has been trying to soften her image as she does seem to come across more relaxed and with a more genuine looking smile.
GUess when the heat comes on in the coming weeks we will start to see if Crusher returns...
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@taniwharugby It was time long ago.
@Paekakboyz She's polarising. Not sure she's going to be able to pick up any Labour voters but Nats have polled consistently above 40 (Pandemic aside) for a decade now. If she can get there she'll have done her job and deserves a second shot.
It's not just the rictus smile, I reckoned she's done a Maggie Thatcher and softened her voice as well.
@canefan @Chris-B Not at all sold on Luxon. I think he's Soimon with a fake veneer.
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wasnt Judith polling higher than Simon when he was the leader?
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I kind of hate that there is so much discussion about Judith's fucking smile. Is she smart? Is she competent? Does she have a track record of getting shit done? How do her constituents feel about her representation in their area?
Don't recall anyone fapping on about Muller's smile. Or boy wonder Luxon, whoever he is.
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@Mokey Maggie Thatcher said she had to change her voice in order to win the leadership battle so I don't think the comments are that out of order.
Yes in an ideal world we'd all be policy geeks but that ship sailed decades ago. We are now all about personalities and presidential crowning's. So while I appreciate where you're coming from and actually agree - if Collins has modified her appearance to be electable it is a story.
Yes she is smart, ditto competent. Add hard working. Also capable of complete cock-ups, ingenuous misinformation campaigns and misguided loyalty. In other words a politician.
Her Papakura electorate has been staunchly Tory since it was created for the 78 election so hard to tell what they think of her but she's always polled in the 55-60% range. The little I've read about it she seems to put more back into the electorate than a lot of high profile MP's. Certainly seemed to during her year out of cabinet under Key.
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