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I'm mostly here for the statistics rather than the politics, but...
...to me it's pretty simple. Election is decided when all the legitimately cast votes are counted.
Florida has always done early counting of mail in votes, so I expect to see a result for that on election night. If Biden wins that, then its all over bar the shouting (or should I say tweet storms and/or shooting). Otherwise, it will take another 4-5 days for other states to count all their mail in votes, after which the race can be called.
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@Winger you've got to get through the convey to actually vote though... and in a number of cases that looks pretty dire given some very hostile behaviour from Trump supporters. Not saying the reverse isn't happening as this election is just a bit hot mess... but holy shit Trump tweeting support for blocking Biden's campaign bus??
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@Stockcar86 said in US Politics:
I'm mostly here for the statistics rather than the politics, but...
...to me it's pretty simple. Election is decided when all the legitimately cast votes are counted.
Florida has always done early counting of mail in votes, so I expect to see a result for that on election night. If Biden wins that, then its all over bar the shouting (or should I say tweet storms and/or shooting). Otherwise, it will take another 4-5 days for other states to count all their mail in votes, after which the race can be called.
I don't think they are allowed to start counting until election night for some bizarre reason. The early votes have to be counted after the election day votes too.
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@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Stockcar86 said in US Politics:
I'm mostly here for the statistics rather than the politics, but...
...to me it's pretty simple. Election is decided when all the legitimately cast votes are counted.
Florida has always done early counting of mail in votes, so I expect to see a result for that on election night. If Biden wins that, then its all over bar the shouting (or should I say tweet storms and/or shooting). Otherwise, it will take another 4-5 days for other states to count all their mail in votes, after which the race can be called.
I don't think they are allowed to start counting until election night for some bizarre reason. The early votes have to be counted after the election day votes too.
It varies from state to state
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@Stockcar86 fair play, the people I was listening to were in California.
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@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Stockcar86 fair play, the people I was listening to were in California.
It is batshit crazy, basically 50 different elections all with different rules and regulations
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@Stockcar86 said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Stockcar86 fair play, the people I was listening to were in California.
It is batshit crazy, basically 50 different elections all with different rules and regulations
Its a miracle they ever get anything done
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@Stockcar86 said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Stockcar86 fair play, the people I was listening to were in California.
It is batshit crazy, basically 50 different elections all with different rules and regulations
It's easy to forget, for sure. It's amazing they get anything done really.
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@Paekakboyz said in US Politics:
hostile behaviour from Trump supporters.
Where did you read this? The large Trump rallies have been very peaceful. Groups that have been violent have nothing to do with Trump supporters
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Biden's range looking like it could be anywhere from low 270s to 340.
If Trump loses Florida he loses.
PA has dropped into the danger zone for Biden but even if Trump gets PA, OH, FL and TX I think he still needs another 30 EC votes from somewhere. That would mean all of MN, MH and WI as well.
It's a path for sure but a bit like picking the first 10 finishers at the Cup. Getting likely that one won't make it
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Without being in PA there is no way to know the mood but I do feel like fracking has been a much bigger issue since the third debate and it's entirely possible that Biden's visible ambivalence on the issue is enough to see that state stay in the Trump column. Maybe this won't be the case and I just have recency bias from the last Australian election where no one outside rural Queensland picked up just how visceral the reaction was on Adani and the convoy. People are saying Biden hasn't made a gaff, but to me this totally was for such an important state.
If PA goes Trump (or is held up) it is a lolly scramble from there.
I'll guess it's contested hinging on PA and I don't know what to believe about postal and prepoll voting in that state anymore.
edit: and I'll give an decent chance to Trump dropping Texas. It hasn't been a focus for him from what I can see it is just one of those states that "has to come in" if he is to win - but I can see a scenario where he can run the table on PA, FL, AZ etc but then blows it by losing Texas. Texas is a different beast to the rest of the south in some ways IMO.
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@Crucial said in US Politics:
Biden's range looking like it could be anywhere from low 270s to 340.
If Trump loses Florida he loses.
PA has dropped into the danger zone for Biden but even if Trump gets PA, OH, FL and TX I think he still needs another 30 EC votes from somewhere. That would mean all of MN, MH and WI as well.
Arizona does it (assuming Iowa goes Trump which looks safe).
A lot of these are in pairs or regions too. If Florida surprises to the upside for Trump, Arizona may too with similar demographics same with the rustbelt TX and GA etc.
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@Duluth said in US Politics - election predictions:
@nzzp said in US Politics - election predictions:
this thread is solely for predictions
Please follow this
Don't want multiple generic threads on this crap
Not many predictions in this thread. People scared to stick their neck out?
I'm fully expecting to be wrong, but I am interested in getting some posters on record with predictions so we can all laugh about it in a few days
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@nzzp said in US Politics - election predictions:
Not many predictions in this thread. People scared to stick their neck out?
Or people don't know. I don't
The polls point in one direction. However turnout is difficult to model for a few reasons (covid, more early voting, enthusiasm both pro and anti is only about one candidate)
The behaviour of some people who should have a good idea suggests internal polling might be closer -
@rotated Looking at https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit-2020-presidential-election-odds PA is the battleground bellwether State that if it doesn't fall Democrat as predicted (avg polls slightly leaning) then one could conceivably be concerned about the others.
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Am hedging my bets slightly. I think Biden will probably win it based on;
- The pollsters hopefully having learnt some lessons since 2016
- Socially desirable responses about [not] voting for Trump (presumably...) being a smaller effect than four years ago.
Either way I expect several weeks of chaos.
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@Donsteppa I don't know how pollsters could account for the shy voter. Either way, if Biden wins by one or a landslide, the nutbags will have a conspiracy theory to account for it.
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@antipodean said in US Politics - election predictions:
@Donsteppa I don't know how pollsters could account for the shy voter. Either way, if Biden wins by one or a landslide, the nutbags will have a conspiracy theory to account for it.
I'v never dug into it much beyond Wikipedia and a marketing paper 20 years ago, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor is interesting on the face of it.
Post 1992:
The report found that 2% of the 8.5% error could be explained by Conservative supporters refusing to disclose their voting intentions; it cited as evidence the fact that exit polls on election day also underestimated the Conservative lead.
After the 1992 election, most opinion pollsters altered their methodology to try to correct for this observed behaviour of the electorate.[1] The methods varied for different companies. Some, including Populus, YouGov and ICM Research, have adopted the tactic of asking their interviewees how they had voted at the previous election, and then assumed that they would vote that way again at a discounted rate.[2] Others weighted their panel so that their past vote was exactly in line with the actual result of the election. For a time, opinion poll results were published both for unadjusted and adjusted methods. Polling companies have found that telephone and personal interviews are more likely to generate a shy response than automated calling or internet polls
... until they again got it badly wrong in 2015
The British Polling Council subsequently launched an independent enquiry into how polls were so wrong amid widespread criticism that polls are no longer a trustworthy avenue of measuring voting intentions.[6][7] This enquiry found that, contrary to the popular reporting, there was no Shy Tory Factor in the election, and the polling had been incorrect for other reasons, most importantly unrepresentative samples.[8]
US Politics