Ukraine
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@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
Vlad is obviously banking on outlasting the West, and the famed ability of his people to endure huge hardship without much complaint
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If (like me), you want to review some of the history of Russian concern about Nato expansion, the following story might be a useful read (I know there is significant debate about whether this was even a quid pro quo, but it seems that Baker promised it). This story is from 2016.
In early February 1990, U.S. leaders made the Soviets an offer. According to transcripts of meetings in Moscow on Feb. 9, then-Secretary of State James Baker suggested that in exchange for cooperation on Germany, U.S. could make “iron-clad guarantees” that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward.” Less than a week later, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev agreed to begin reunification talks. No formal deal was struck, but from all the evidence, the quid pro quo was clear: Gorbachev acceded to Germany’s western alignment and the U.S. would limit NATO’s expansion. It’s therefore not surprising that Russia was incensed when Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states and others were ushered into NATO membership starting in the mid-1990s. Boris Yeltsin, Dmitry Medvedev and Gorbachev himself protested through both public and private channels that U.S. leaders had violated the non-expansion arrangement. As NATO began looking even further eastward, to Ukraine and Georgia, protests turned to outright aggression and saber-rattling. As NATO began looking even further eastward, to Ukraine and Georgia, protests turned to outright aggression and saber-rattling.
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It’s therefore not surprising that Russia was incensed when Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states and others were ushered into NATO membership starting in the mid-1990s. Boris Yeltsin, Dmitry Medvedev and Gorbachev himself protested through both public and private channels that U.S. leaders had violated the non-expansion arrangement.
The only two countries which joined NATO before Putin were Poland and Hungary who joined just before Putin came into power. The others joined years into Putin's reign and after he started kicking off in Chechnya. I may be wrong, but isn't it a central plank of NATO policy that they cannot guarantee that a country will be barred from membership?
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@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
It’s therefore not surprising that Russia was incensed when Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states and others were ushered into NATO membership starting in the mid-1990s. Boris Yeltsin, Dmitry Medvedev and Gorbachev himself protested through both public and private channels that U.S. leaders had violated the non-expansion arrangement.
The only two countries which joined NATO before Putin were Poland and Hungary who joined just before Putin came into power. The others joined years into Putin's reign and after he started kicking off in Chechnya. I may be wrong, but isn't it a central plank of NATO policy that they cannot guarantee that a country will be barred from membership?
Those quotes come from the article.
I'm not taking the Russian side here at all, I posted it because it might be useful in understanding Putin's mindset.
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@victor-meldrew said in Ukraine:
It’s therefore not surprising that Russia was incensed when Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states and others were ushered into NATO membership starting in the mid-1990s. Boris Yeltsin, Dmitry Medvedev and Gorbachev himself protested through both public and private channels that U.S. leaders had violated the non-expansion arrangement.
The only two countries which joined NATO before Putin were Poland and Hungary who joined just before Putin came into power. The others joined years into Putin's reign and after he started kicking off in Chechnya. I may be wrong, but isn't it a central plank of NATO policy that they cannot guarantee that a country will be barred from membership?
Those quotes come from the article.
I'm not taking the Russian side here at all, I posted it because it might be useful in understanding Putin's mindset.
Not disagreeing with you and tks for posting - just pointing out the article glosses over a few key dates which puts it in context
Putin has said the loss of the USSR was a catastrophe and he's surrounded by ex-KGB agents, so perhaps it's less NATO expansion than loss of empire? Considering it's mineral wealth and education system, Russia should have been a key player economically by now and challenging Germany and Japan. The fact that it's become a basket-case under Putin and he's allowed rampant corruption makes me wonder if he sees expansion as the only way to stay in office. Nothing like a good war to rouse the masses in your favour. Problems start when you run out of safe wars to start..
Dangerous times.
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@victor-meldrew is Russia a basket case on the home front?
I had thought they held their own economically. Their at home purchasing power per capita was quite high up in the world lists.
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@majorrage said in Ukraine:
He’s put me in a school of thought which worries me about myself, my children and my friends / family. He’s a fucking fluffybunny. I hope he doesn’t achieve shit, I really do.
TR Jnr asked me the other day if he should be worried about this, I said I have no idea, I hope not!
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@muddyriver said in Ukraine:
@victor-meldrew is Russia a basket case on the home front?
I had thought they held their own economically. Their at home purchasing power per capita was quite high up in the world lists.
Dunno. For a country of 150 million, all the minerals they can eat and a strong scientific & educational base, they really should be forging ahead. Instead, they have lagged behind the likes of Poland & the Czech republic since the end of the Cold War.
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@gt12 This has always been the case. The Russian psyche has a deeply ingrained distrust of the west having been invaded from there too often and with too much suffering as a result.
During the cold war the US was prepared to push the nuclear button because of the Cuban missile crisis meanwhile the USSR was ringed by American missiles and nukes.
Putin is definitely mining this distrust for his propaganda campaign. He's a tyrannical megalomaniac sociopath. It was only a matter of time before indiscriminate targeting of civilian targets within Ukraine was stepped up. He doesn't give a shit about his opponents or the general Russian population as long as he believes his aims are being achieved.
Despite all that I don't give much credence to talk of domestic opposition. Russians like a strong leader and he will have no compunction in aggressively stamping out any real dissent.
I was living in Holland when USSR invaded Afghanistan and there was a very real sense of apprehension with the local air bases flying sorties day and night and tank traps being set up on the motorways. I can only imagine what its like in Europe now let alone in the Ukraine and Baltic states. At least Brezhnev would listen to reason.
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If (like me), you want to review some of the history of Russian concern about Nato expansion
The problem is that if Russia absorbs Ukraine (who Putin doesn't acknowledge as a country), he is creating the very situation he has used as a pretext for this invasion. That is, he has NATO on his doorstep with Poland.
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If (like me), you want to review some of the history of Russian concern about Nato expansion
The problem is that if Russia absorbs Ukraine (who Putin doesn't acknowledge as a country), he is creating the very situation he has used as a pretext for this invasion. That is, he has NATO on his doorstep with Poland.
Yes, how DARE those NATO scumbags shift borders after their 30-year old promise not to, while Putin rages unchecked through former republics.
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@muddyriver said in Ukraine:
@victor-meldrew is Russia a basket case on the home front?
I had thought they held their own economically. Their at home purchasing power per capita was quite high up in the world lists.
its fascinating, i was listening to a podcast yesterday, its american and probably left leaning (although they claim and seem to try and get both sides of discussion), they had a reporter who had done an exchange student thing back in the 90's in russia, he reached back out to his old russian family...they love Putin, wouldn't hear a bad word said about him, life is so much better now that it was in the 2000's and the 2000's were so much better than the 90's, hes a hero that's liberating these areas of Ukraine, and these are the 80's where the populous might only hear what state run media have to say, they're on the info web and see whats being said around the world
i think they said that there are two state run and one "independent" polling organisations and all of them get similar figures of mid 80% approval, what i found fascinating was apparently even when foreign organisations do anonymous polling he still has 50-60% approval...so its not all fear of repercussion
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@majorrage said in Ukraine:
@mariner4life said in Ukraine:
I guess where we differ is
I would define an effective leader is one who does good things for the people he leads
None of this is good for them. They couldn't give a fuck about running the Ukraine. They (probably) weren't afraid they were about to cop missiles from the west.
Instead they get fucked by sanctions
Their economy is tanked.
Their ability to do business in the world is severely hampered at best
They can't even log in to porn hubAnd for what??
I think what you are saying is you define effective as good. That's where we differ. I would also define Hitler as a very effective leader.
No wrong or right here, but we are on the same page for the most part Disappointingly, feel like a good stoush.
yeah, damn it. want me to make up something outlandish so we can just go at it?
I agree my naive sheltered views may contribute to my opinion. I just expect, like most people these days, that countries do "the right thing" and that shit like this is for less enlightened times
And then i realise that's because i fall in to the trap of obviously not caring about places where people don't look like me. Which is a shuddering realisation.
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@stockcar86 Russia lost the war? Here I was thinking it was still going.
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@antipodean said in Ukraine:
@stockcar86 Russia lost the war? Here I was thinking it was still going.
I chuckled reading that as well.
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@stockcar86 folks keen to get their predictions in asap so they can go into 'told you so' mode, or bury them and alter their predictions if they turn out wrong. But who knows, maybe Putin reads Twitter and will go, we've lost?? shit, time to bring the lads home.
Yeah right.
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