Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Still early but shit we have been lucky
or our risk models are wrong. because I've seen this before
Who bloody knows anymore. For what ever reason this thing does not seem to spread with the enthusiasm that was seen in the NH
my entire point (no, rant, rant is a better word) this entire time has been, our options do not appear to be just lockdown everything all the time, or otherwise the UK. But i hear that sort of message a lot in justification.
But yes, i freely admit that i have no fucking idea, and i am basing my ranty opinions on the privileged position we appear to be in.
I still struggle to wrap my head around the US numbers.
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@mariner4life their numbers are beyond mental. The tally of infectious folk let alone the death figures. How many of our stadiums filled how many times.
Deep in the Stuff article it listed a number of ways the Govt is trying to connect with youth and various target groups. If the messaging is so shit I guess the rep of some of those groups is gonna take a hit? or will they plead that the Govt didn't listen to their advice?
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@paekakboyz am sure there is always someone else to blame!
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I still struggle to wrap my head around the US numbers.
I don't. Third most populous nation on earth, half of which are fat fluffybunnies.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I still struggle to wrap my head around the US numbers.
I don't. Third most populous nation on earth, half of which are fat fluffybunnies.
Half?
Last time I was there I saw morbidly obese people in their 30s and 40s riding mobility scooters eating their massive meals. They were ripe for this kind of disease
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@canefan what is interesting is some of the other countries that have been smashed (death per mill)
Czechia & Belgium are at the top, Mexico's numbers look to only recently starting to tail off, but they have long been seen as one of the Obesity capitals.
I know when I spoke to my mate in Prague back in October, he was extremely critical of how relaxed they had let thing go very recently, and the numbers were starting to get out of control then.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan what is interesting is some of the other countries that have been smashed (death per mill)
Czechia & Belgium are at the top, Mexico's numbers look to only recently starting to tail off, but they have long been seen as one of the Obesity capitals.
I know when I spoke to my mate in Prague back in October, he was extremely critical of how relaxed they had let thing go very recently, and the numbers were starting to get out of control then.
So multifactorial then
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Sounds like the KFC girl can form a decent argument that she thought she was doing the right thing. Text messages were shown on TV and were apparently ambiguous according to Mrs CF, and I can believe that. The other guy has no such out, he's just a selfish fluffybunny
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@canefan I didnt see that bit but they were talking about the cultural and language barriers...
I dont buy it, these people have been living in NZ for the last year, know what is going on, so they are choosing to do things how they do them (jeez you only need to watch Border Patrol or whatever it is to see how many people try to use language as a reason they had all those seeds and meat products in thier suitcase)
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan I didnt see that bit but they were talking about the cultural and language barriers...
I dont buy it, these people have been living in NZ for the last year, know what is going on, so they are choosing to do things how they do them (jeez you only need to watch Border Patrol or whatever it is to see how many people try to use language as a reason they had all those seeds and meat products in thier suitcase)
It was more about the ambiguity of the instructions. She was not a close contact. Interesting example, someone we know was considered a contact+ (whatever that means)of the Kmart cell. They were told they didn't need testing and didn't need to tell anyone about it. This person chose to inform his workmates. You either are a contact or not surely?
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@canefan I wasnt talking about that aspect, was another piece on the news I was referrign to.
I guess to give some of these people complaining leeway about the messaging, Papatoetoe HIgh have done a great job getting thier students and most of thier families on board with the testing (more than once) maybe the Govt. can learn a little from how they got the messaging out to a high % of the people.
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Honestly speaking, I am starting to struggle to see the NZ way out of this.
This is not to criticise the approach, if the whole world has done what NZ had done (effectively) then it'd be in a much better situation. However it didn't. Up here, we know and have learned to live with it. The lockdowns have sucked, the economy is in tatters, and we've had bloody Brexit in the middle of it! However, right now, we as a country actually see where we (hope we) are going. The vaccine has seriously kicked in, number of 80+ in ICU is in single digits, a very cautious open up plan is public. Yesterdays numbers were the lowest in cases for 6 months, lowest in deaths for 5. Bear in mind the UK usually loses 15,000 people per flu season which is 100 per day. We aren't far off that in Covid terms now, after flu being down 95%. Subsequently, you can argue that from a health perspective, we aren't far off back to normal.
There is a genuine excitement in the air of coming out of this and the country working on it's new reality. Who knows what it will bring? Sunak's budget tomorrow will be quite revealing. I'm hoping for fat-tax, slight increase in corporation tax (with offsets for job supply) & big tech online sales tax changes. I'm sure I'll get hit in the pocket in other ways as well, such is life.
But what is NZ's roadmap? When will my parents be vaccinated (70 & 73 respectively)? When will they feel safe enough to get on a plane to come here and see their grandkids (who miss them terribly) and their son who fears he may never see at least one of them again. When I'm vaccinated (which will likely be in < 3 months) will I be able to visit NZ with my family (logistics of school age kids and 2 week quarantine)?
I recognise that only as a NZ citizen & secondary tax payer my views are beneath NZ residents. But I hear real frustration from my parents over the handling of the whole thing, and the closing off of the country. Dad genuinely thinks in a few months we'll be out 'n about whilst he will he be locked down in the BoP due to an outbreak of 3-4 people in South Auckland. And obviously thinks that is a roadmap to disaster. It feels to me that Ardern and co think that its' best to vaccinate the country and then continue with the quarantine for quite some time. I'm not sure that's a roadmap to anywhere.
I acknowledge my Dad is a curmudgeonly old bastard at the best of times btw. But what is the roadmap? When can I visit next without quarantine, when will my parents be allowed to leave?
Sorry for the rant ... a quick question I had for the TSF wisdom sort of went nuts ...
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I hope they have a great plan for rolling out the vaccine in South Auckland in double quick time. Pretty sure the entire country would be happy to wait so they could get jabbed alongside essential workers, border staff etc, cos this whole shut down the country for a case or two is a terrible long term strategy, both for the economy and mental health.
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@mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I hope they have a great plan for rolling out the vaccine in South Auckland in double quick time. Pretty sure the entire country would be happy to wait so they could get jabbed alongside essential workers, border staff etc, cos this whole shut down the country for a case or two is a terrible long term strategy, both for the economy and mental health.
I hope they have a plan too. I'm not sure they do though
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It feels to me that Ardern and co think that its' best to vaccinate the country and then continue with the quarantine for quite some time.
I think the lack of a (public?) plan doesn't help, but I don't think the lack of a detailed road map implies that we'll still stick with quarantine after widespread UK-like vaccinations either.
In some ways, while we finish a wider vaccine rollout over our 2021 winter, maybe we learn from the lessons of the UK and co in reopening borders/an economy/wider society as you're going into your summer months, while we've still kept unemployment at circa 5%, etc, in NZ in the interim.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I recognise that only as a NZ citizen & secondary tax payer my views are beneath NZ residents.
I think that's overly depressive! But I have been intrigued over the last year that - as a sweeping generalisation (and with 2- 3 exceptions that immediately spring to mind ) - the strongest critics on TSF of the NZ approach are those already living offshore. While most TSF'ers onshore are generally more content with how things are going in Godzone.
For a while now I've been mulling over what that means, if anything at all. Perhaps that most of us have already wisely chosen the places in the world that are best suited to us and our worldviews? Maybe.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I acknowledge my Dad is a curmudgeonly old bastard at the best of times btw. But what is the roadmap? When can I visit next without quarantine, when will my parents be allowed to leave?
A pedantic point. For all the excitement about Australia briefly opening one way travel bubbles, people are free to leave NZ at any time and don't need approval like our friends from across the ditch (https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia). Though it's getting back in which is the rationed problem for now...
I think it's fair to say that a genuine two -way travel bubble with Oz was hoped for sooner, and that demand for MIQ places from people coming home has been stronger than anticipated, certainly post-Christmas.
Vaccine passports will have to come into the global and NZ travel mix at some stage soon. The dilemma will be how far each nation can trust a document and from where. The Russian fisherman who had been "isolated and tested" before leaving Russia for NZ last October being an salutatory reminder there... not that it should have been much of a surprise.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Dad genuinely thinks in a few months we'll be out 'n about whilst he will he be locked down in the BoP due to an outbreak of 3-4 people in South Auckland.
I think if the powers-that-be weren't already aware of the risk of creating a Boy Who Cried Wolf effect from going straight to Level 3 and only finding a handful of cases, I think they certainly will be if this week goes well healthwise. For now, I'm just hoping that none of the Friday gym-goers were infected and then went to the Parker fight or Six60...
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If there are vaccine passports, I can anticipate non/short quarantine travel based on testing. No need to have a 2 weeks quarantine if you are vaccinated, coming from a low risk country and testing negative at departure and/or arrival.
Would rather see NZ continue as is than attempt to rush back into the old normal. Fact is, apart from a few blips, they have done very well. If they miraculously get out of this one with no extensions and can avoid future lockdowns till vaccinations are more widespread then they have done very, very well.
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Great answers / comments - some questions.
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I think the lack of a (public?) plan doesn't help, but I don't think the lack of a detailed road map implies that we'll still stick with quarantine after widespread UK-like vaccinations either.
I don't agree with that. You can't find any official government postings anywhere on when this will end. This implies to me that it will continue long beyond when countries hit hardest have opened up. Boris has said 21st June we are fully open. That's only 3 months away ... not much personal international travel is booked < 3months in advance.
It would obviously be silly to allow free travel between UK / NZ from this date given that the virus will still be prevalent in the UK then, but you'd at least expect some sort of acknowledgment.
In some ways, while we finish a wider vaccine rollout over our 2021 winter, maybe we learn from the lessons of the UK and co in reopening borders/an economy/wider society as you're going into your summer months, while we've still kept unemployment at circa 5%, etc, in NZ in the interim.
Indeed. We may well be the guinea pigs for you guys to see how it goes. Not sure what your point is re unemployment tho.
I think that's overly depressive! But I have been intrigued over the last year that - as a sweeping generalisation (and with 2- 3 exceptions that immediately spring to mind ) - the strongest critics on TSF of the NZ approach are those already living offshore. While most TSF'ers onshore are generally more content with how things are going in Godzone.
For a while now I've been mulling over what that means, if anything at all. Perhaps that most of us have already wisely chosen the places in the world that are best suited to us and our worldviews? Maybe.
I would say it's the opposite! The TSF view is more negative on NZ by those in NZ than I'd expect! Although that perhaps is because it's a clear contrast to the Jacinda loving media which means she is not being properly held to account for the govt failings.
I also make no secret that my above rant is more about my own thoughts/things, not what may be best for the general NZ population.
A pedantic point. For all the excitement about Australia briefly opening one way travel bubbles, people are free to leave NZ at any time and don't need approval like our friends from across the ditch (https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia). Though it's getting back in which is the rationed problem for now...
I've not looked at it, but my dad is adamant he is not allowed to leave NZ. My left wing sister also says as much.
I think it's fair to say that a genuine two -way travel bubble with Oz was hoped for sooner, and that demand for MIQ places from people coming home has been stronger than anticipated, certainly post-Christmas.
Vaccine passports will have to come into the global and NZ travel mix at some stage soon. The dilemma will be how far each nation can trust a document and from where. The Russian fisherman who had been "isolated and tested" before leaving Russia for NZ last October being an salutatory reminder there... not that it should have been much of a surprise.
Indeed. Although the UK should be ok here. If it's not, then diplomatically that could be a large issue.
I think if the powers-that-be weren't already aware of the risk of creating a Boy Who Cried Wolf effect from going straight to Level 3 and only finding a handful of cases, I think they certainly will be if this week goes well healthwise. For now, I'm just hoping that none of the Friday gym-goers were infected and then went to the Parker fight or Six60...
You'd hope so. But it would mean the would need to be properly held to account, which Ive seen very little of so far ...
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
When Covid first appeared 12 months ago NZ's ICU capacity was 173. By April this increased to 330 and by July 552. I'm not sure what has happened since.
Similarly withy respirators. Don't know current numbers but I do know from a RNZ The Detail podcast that we purchased (medical term) a shitload last year. We also developed a methodology for having one ventilator support multiple patients
Experience from the UK suggests ventilators are needed less and less as Covid treatments are refined. Recovery rates have improved significantly as well.