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@gt12 said in US Politics:
I think this current situation is a reflection of those figures - the left sees Facebook as being a hidden Trump supporter (I don't think they are, I agree they just want green), so by getting out on these emails they might be sending a signal that they expect Biden to be elected and want to have some points in the bank when Warren starts looking around for tech firms to break up. It's a reasonable risk hedge anyway.
I think that breaking these firms up is needed too - @Kirwan essentially referred to this before, as FB has monopolized social media, so breaking them up (Facebook. Messenger, Insta, Whatsapp) would reduce their network effects and force some oxygen into social media as different platforms would then expand their offerings. The US government will have to reinterpret anti trust a bit to do it, but it has started already. It is likely to happen to google who it looks like may be forced to spin Chrome soon, and in the future, under Biden I cold see then being forced to spin Youtube. Amazon is the big one - at some point AWS will be spun.
Yep, you want competition within the space to avoid the sort of behaviour we are seeing now. Sort of like a Fox News, CNN pick your bias approach.
You want the door open for the next Google too, at the moment five compnaies have pulled up the ladder behind them (Apple, M$, Facebook, Google and Amazon).
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@Kirwan Yeah, the monopoly through acquisition is a problem. Much more so than the bias I think. The bias may change depending on the political weather, but if they have taken out all the alternative competitors, or worse still, brought them in house and subjected them to the same biases, it’s harder to argue that people should just move.
I still maintain though that they are not essential. People should log off.
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@pakman said in US Politics:
Latest polls for Ohio suggest the fat lady hasn't made up her mind.
There's quite a few that fall into that category.
Ohio and Georgia are on a knife edge. Both have swung well toward Biden compared to the 2016 result but not enough to call either way.
Florida, Iowa, Maine, NC all within the margins as well. Arizona and Texas not conclusive either.Thing to know though is that all of these are polling slightly in favour of Biden and all have swung away from Trump.
Biggest take though? Trump can overturn the polls for these states and still be short of a win.
Ideally he would like to have more surety on these and then be free to go after the likes of Penn, Wisconson, Minn and Mich without looking over his shoulder.
I know the polls can be wrong but he needs to win about 10 of the states polling Biden. That's a big ask and a much different prop than last time.
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@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
They won't get everything right but as pointed out above they need to be getting a hell of a lot wrong this time for Trump to win.
Too much is made (from media soundbites) about the 'popularity margin' as well. That's what surprised everyone last time because Hillary was ahed in the popularity stakes. That turned out true on the day as well, just the electoral college breakdown didn't go her way.
I might try and find some comparitive state by state polls from the same period and see how they went.
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@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that) -
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)That guy's theories were coincidentally correct rather than scientific IIRC.
I'm interested in following the tracking of the polls this time just to see what actually happens.
I have found some 2016 data. It isn't as stable as the FT rolling RealClear one I have been using but yes, if you look at 2016 Trump took the toss up (within margin of error) states but also took a key one that was polling over 5% for Clinton. That was the clincher.
Same number of toss up votes available going into election and similar margins.
So he will be banking on the 'silent supporter' theory on those plus at least one stolen from looking Biden 'safe'.HIstory has shown that it is possible.
One other aspect this time around though is that the 'popularity' poll difference is much bigger. More than double the advantage for Biden than it was for Hillary. That should translate into some effect and make it more difficult to take these states.
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@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)There was another guy, a history professor i think, that I posted ages ago who has predicted every president since Reagan and he says Biden will win. So someone is going to be wrong
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@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
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@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
I would usually laugh that comment off as paranoia. But the US is so crazy right now, people will disown you if they found out that you weren't voting the same as them
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@canefan said in US Politics:
@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
I would usually laugh that comment off as paranoia. But the US is so crazy right now, people will disown you if they found out that you weren't voting the same as them
Yes, it's mad.
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@Kirwan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Virgil said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial last time around the polls were wrong. It will be interesting to see if history repeats
Can’t find the link but some guy in the states who predicted Trumps win in 2016 has come out and said his data points to another win this time as well.
Made the good point you can’t always trust polls, people don’t always give the true answer.
Where as he goes off social media etc, comments and posts where people tend to be more upfront and speak their minds ( only have to see the replies in a Trump tweet to see that)im sure i read somewhere about a study that showed there are LOADS of people that are just embarressed to admit they'll vote for trump....so i wont be overly surprised
Embarassed and worried about being targetted/attacked/losing their jobs.
....and polling companies are releasing personal details of those that indicate a Rep vote? Don't think so. Lots of the polls are impersonal now as well.
I get that face to face some people could be shy, but in a poll?What we saw last election was everything bar one State running close to the polls (within margin of error). The margin accounts for these people.
A late switch in one state based on stupidity by Clinton being taken advantage of by Trump.The general media narrative was that Clinton had it in the bag but the polls didn't really paint that picture at all when you look back at them.
US Politics