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@majorrage said in Brexit:
McVey gone - that was highly predicted though.
I've never thought this before ... but I'm now leaning towards a re-vote, remain for the first time.
So, the crunch debate starts today. And the revote movement over the last few days has been seriously building. And then this morning splashed all over the headlines is that Britain can unilaterally withdraw article 50.
Maybe, just maybe, May (a staunch remainer), has had this plan all along. Quite a few had mentioned it, I never really believed it. But it's all just a little bit perfect ...
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@majorrage said in Brexit:
@majorrage said in Brexit:
McVey gone - that was highly predicted though.
I've never thought this before ... but I'm now leaning towards a re-vote, remain for the first time.
So, the crunch debate starts today. And the revote movement over the last few days has been seriously building. And then this morning splashed all over the headlines is that Britain can unilaterally withdraw article 50.
Maybe, just maybe, May (a staunch remainer), has had this plan all along. Quite a few had mentioned it, I never really believed it. But it's all just a little bit perfect ...
If this was her plan then it is political manipulation of the highest standard.
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@majorrage said in Brexit:
@majorrage said in Brexit:
McVey gone - that was highly predicted though.
I've never thought this before ... but I'm now leaning towards a re-vote, remain for the first time.
So, the crunch debate starts today. And the revote movement over the last few days has been seriously building. And then this morning splashed all over the headlines is that Britain can unilaterally withdraw article 50.
Maybe, just maybe, May (a staunch remainer), has had this plan all along. Quite a few had mentioned it, I never really believed it. But it's all just a little bit perfect ...
If this was her plan then it is political manipulation of the highest standard.
Which will assure her position as PM until after Christmas at least
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Can someone explain why the govt wasnt releasing the legal document about the deal?
Seems a no brainer that the people who need to vote on it should see all the legal advice the govt got over the deal.The only explanation I can think of is it is humiliating for the givt and May didnt want an informed decision.
I think this is coming down to only 3 options, either they withdraw article 50, which would likely lead a pseudo civil war of the nastiest kind. The ramifications of doing that cannot be underestimated.
or... The above, but then with the promise of a new referendum.
or...A hard Brexit.I think the top 2 are extremely unlikely because it would require parliament to vote that way, and that is very unlikely.
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The second case isn’t highly unlikely. As an option, it has been said enough that the impact has dulled.
As for withdrawing Article 50, that could be done as part of a delayed exit. Brexit could be honored later but with proper planning and a better negotiating position. -
The second case isn’t highly unlikely. As an option, it has been said enough that the impact has dulled.
As for withdrawing Article 50, that could be done as part of a delayed exit. Brexit could be honored later but with proper planning and a better negotiating position.The numbers are not there in Parliament to postpone Brexit. Just not enough MP's who are prepared to spend political capital. over it. MP's are not going to die in the ditch to have another referendum. You underestimate MP{'s sense of self preservation.
You have to ask.. what is in it for them? -
@baron-silas-greenback said in Brexit:
The second case isn’t highly unlikely. As an option, it has been said enough that the impact has dulled.
As for withdrawing Article 50, that could be done as part of a delayed exit. Brexit could be honored later but with proper planning and a better negotiating position.The numbers are not there in Parliament to postpone Brexit. Just not enough MP's who are prepared to spend political capital. over it. MP's are not going to die in the ditch to have another referendum. You underestimate MP{'s sense of self preservation.
You have to ask.. what is in it for them?The 'people's vote' option (which of course no one actually knows what it means) has been being uttered more and more by MPs. It has moved from a nut job chant to being spoken about as a serious option and is gaining traction among the backbench partly because it isn't an option May or Corbyn want to entertain so is seen as a bit of a push back at the fucked up situation.
I also doubt it will happen as it will simply be an even bigger mess to frame a question, but given the crazy shit already achieved in this mammoth balls up I wouldn't discount it. -
@baron-silas-greenback said in Brexit:
The second case isn’t highly unlikely. As an option, it has been said enough that the impact has dulled.
As for withdrawing Article 50, that could be done as part of a delayed exit. Brexit could be honored later but with proper planning and a better negotiating position.The numbers are not there in Parliament to postpone Brexit. Just not enough MP's who are prepared to spend political capital. over it. MP's are not going to die in the ditch to have another referendum. You underestimate MP{'s sense of self preservation.
You have to ask.. what is in it for them?The 'people's vote' option (which of course no one actually knows what it means) has been being uttered more and more by MPs. It has moved from a nut job chant to being spoken about as a serious option and is gaining traction among the backbench partly because it isn't an option May or Corbyn want to entertain so is seen as a bit of a push back at the fucked up situation.
I also doubt it will happen as it will simply be an even bigger mess to frame a question, but given the crazy shit already achieved in this mammoth balls up I wouldn't discount it.Muttered more and more? I have heard it sent literally the day after the first votead the chatter about it hasnt stopped since.
I am unaware f it gaining traction with backbench MP's. Do you have a source for that? And I don't mean the ones who were always luke warm, I am talking about ones actually prepared to change position completely and betray constituents. -
@baron-silas-greenback said in Brexit:
Can someone explain why the govt wasnt releasing the legal document about the deal?
As I understand it the reason is because legal advice almost never is released.
There is something called the Law Officers' Convention, whereby the government's lawyers offer opinions and advice almost on an attorney/client privilege basis. Info in this detail was disclosed when the govt was asked for its opinion on the legality of the Iraq war in 2003 and before that you have to go back to when questions were asked about the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. One of the UK law journals calls the provision of detail like that as "almost unprecedented", and Labour have relied on the convention just as often as the Tories have. Instead the convention is that the Attorney General will provide explanatory documents or a "command paper" and generally that is always accepted as sufficient except, as it appears is the case now, there is political mileage in forcing greater disclosure.
The current crisis has resulted from Labour using a process called a "humble Address for return" to order the advice to be produced. Humble Addresses are direct communications to the monarch, so the issue here is that this one in effect requires the Queen to produce the info. I'm sure she is thrilled to have been dragged into this.
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@majorrage said in Brexit:
So, the crunch debate starts today. And the revote movement over the last few days has been seriously building. And then this morning splashed all over the headlines is that Britain can unilaterally withdraw article 50.
This was quite unexpected, wasn't it? Or have I been reading biased sources?
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All I know is when BJ was put on the spot about what he would do he shit the bed.
Because that is what invertebrates do when they're frightened
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@mikethesnow said in Brexit:
All I know is when BJ was put on the spot about what he would do he shit the bed.
Because that is what invertebrates do when they're frightened
What was that on? I haven't seen much of BJ on it but JRM is very clued up. I have a Batten interview to get through too in the next couple days.
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@rembrandt said in Brexit:
@mikethesnow said in Brexit:
All I know is when BJ was put on the spot about what he would do he shit the bed.
Because that is what invertebrates do when they're frightened
What was that on? I haven't seen much of BJ on it but JRM is very clued up. I have a Batten interview to get through too in the next couple days.
JRM clued up? Not of political machinations. He was made to look a fool by May of all people and has had to hide in the corner for a while.
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@majorrage said in Brexit:
So, the crunch debate starts today. And the revote movement over the last few days has been seriously building. And then this morning splashed all over the headlines is that Britain can unilaterally withdraw article 50.
This was quite unexpected, wasn't it? Or have I been reading biased sources?
Unexpected only in that Brussels were the ones saying that once triggered you can't rescind. That interpretation was correctly challenged by some Scots MPs.
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@baron-silas-greenback said in Brexit:
Can someone explain why the govt wasnt releasing the legal document about the deal?
As I understand it the reason is because legal advice almost never is released.
There is something called the Law Officers' Convention, whereby the government's lawyers offer opinions and advice almost on an attorney/client privilege basis. Info in this detail was disclosed when the govt was asked for its opinion on the legality of the Iraq war in 2003 and before that you have to go back to when questions were asked about the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. One of the UK law journals calls the provision of detail like that as "almost unprecedented", and Labour have relied on the convention just as often as the Tories have. Instead the convention is that the Attorney General will provide explanatory documents or a "command paper" and generally that is always accepted as sufficient except, as it appears is the case now, there is political mileage in forcing greater disclosure.
The current crisis has resulted from Labour using a process called a "humble Address for return" to order the advice to be produced. Humble Addresses are direct communications to the monarch, so the issue here is that this one in effect requires the Queen to produce the info. I'm sure she is thrilled to have been dragged into this.
The Queen's name is used in many things. I'm sure she doesn't care except that it continues the monarchy's role.
I think the inference with this request was that this IS one of those rare times that a request is made/honoured and that parliament voted as such. The request was ignored and now the government has become the first ever to be held in contempt.
Surely though, if advice is being given to a representative of the people then it doesn't hold privilege in disclosure to those people if they want it. -
@rembrandt said in Brexit:
@mikethesnow said in Brexit:
All I know is when BJ was put on the spot about what he would do he shit the bed.
Because that is what invertebrates do when they're frightened
What was that on? I haven't seen much of BJ on it but JRM is very clued up. I have a Batten interview to get through too in the next couple days.
JRM clued up? Not of political machinations. He was made to look a fool by May of all people and has had to hide in the corner for a while.
No, on how to deal with the Brexit negotiations and where to go from here. May must have considerable dirt on folk to still have so much support or maybe they are they all just too weak to make a stand?
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@rembrandt said in Brexit:
@rembrandt said in Brexit:
@mikethesnow said in Brexit:
All I know is when BJ was put on the spot about what he would do he shit the bed.
Because that is what invertebrates do when they're frightened
What was that on? I haven't seen much of BJ on it but JRM is very clued up. I have a Batten interview to get through too in the next couple days.
JRM clued up? Not of political machinations. He was made to look a fool by May of all people and has had to hide in the corner for a while.
No, on how to deal with the Brexit negotiations and where to go from here. May must have considerable dirt on folk to still have so much support or maybe they are they all just too weak to make a stand?
JRM has no plan at all on how to leave. He has a number of platitudinal sound bites that have no basis in reality. His position is an exact example of the failed process itself. All to do with emotional theory and nothing thought out on how to implement without doing great damage. He has been asked numerous times to provide a plan and/or detail on individual aspects that require attention and fails every time to provide. He, with others, came up with an 80 page blueprint at one point which they threw away without publishing because it would presumably be torn to shreds.
If the UK really wants to leave the EU then surely any govts role is to make that happen in the least damaging manner possible. It is abundantly clear that a no deal exit without new agreements elsewhere in place and ready to take over would be the biggest case of cutting of shooting yourself in the foot ever seen.
The NI question alone would cause chaos. What happens on 'no deal' day? Roll out the barbed wire and restart the troubles?
Untangling a country from decades of intertwined laws and practices is not impossible but it is certainly difficult and time consuming and has to be handled with care.
JRM acts like a teenager wanting to run away from home because he thinks his parents are unfair. Good luck mate. You can now stay out as long as you like and have an untidy room but you haven't worked out who is paying the power bill or even where you will stay. Sure you can work hard and solve these issues but be prepared for some cold nights and having to take on jobs you may not want because you aren't in a position to negotiate or wait for better. In other words the world doesn't revolve around you. Here's a better idea, save some money, get a job you want with prospects, put up with your parents for a while longer then leave home.
Brexit