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@Rembrandt said in Brexit:
@Rembrandt Can you define what you mean by short-term? And why do you think it will only have a short-term impact - what are the factors that will put a stop to the hurt? Is the longterm pain that you say Europe will feel based on any analysis or just gut feel? I'm interested in why you think the EU will have it harder in the long run if they play hardball and why anyone would assume the EU position isn't based on any sort of rigorous analysis. It seems to me to be a bit of an arrogance to presume that their stance is based solely on ideology, without any data to back it up.
As for the optics, I'm pretty confident the Europols don't give a hoot. Nobody is going to lose any votes domestically from giving the UK a kick in the nuts. And the Eurocrats certainly don't care, because they don't have to answer to anyone - isn't one of the drivers for Brexit exactly that point?
Been a few days but by short-term I'm referring to trade agreements, general disruption and feelings of economic uncertainty which will pass as other agreements are made. The long term issues for Europe is based on the UK as a net contributor pulling out coupled with Germany closing in on recession and increasing euro-scepticism across Europe. Hard-ball I see as worse because if Boris is to be believed (and he better be for the future of the conservatives) then the UK is going out regardless of whether the EU co-operates or not. By co-operating they may be able to salvage some trade relations or even just a better relationship with the EU. By being all 4th reich on the UK that might scare some other nations into not following in the UK's footsteps but its not going to help scepticism of the EU project which I believe over time is doomed to failure.
Of course I'm no economic expert, just a layman, so that only puts my predictions on par with the highly paid doomsday economists paraded on TV during those 'unforseen' results so take it with a grain of salt! I have however made an effort since 2016 to follow those who got their predictions right as opposed to some of my nuttier previous sources (Guardian/BBC/Independent etc), so its mostly based on arguments I've listened to and read, I've gone from pro-EU to anti in about 3 years, but who knows, maybe my previous sources could still be right Brexit might lead to flash floods, starvation and even the dreaded super-gonorrhoea. Time will tell and it's certainly easier being in Australia watching it all unfold than being in amongst it.
Yeah well that’s as good an answer as any. My own theories don’t necessarily agree with your but as BSG said earlier nobody really knows. The UK took 5 years to recover from the 2008 crash and I suspect it could take longer because the last recovery was almost entirely services led (manufacturing still hasn’t returned to parity over 10 years later) and there may be some headwinds there if the services firms move offshore. It’s of very real concern that despite a massive devaluation earnings haven’t really improved since the crash, and have fallen dramatically since the vote. That’s significant because, as the base rate is already very low, the 2 most useful tools (manipulating the exchange rate and/or interest rates) available to restart the economy are demonstrably ineffective, and that’s before the actual exit.
If there’s an upside it is that the hard Brexit has been so telegraphed that it has already been priced in by the markets to some extent. It will be interesting to see what the hedge funds and speculators do in the run-up, I think we’ll likely see something similar to Black Wednesday, but the UK has significant foreign reserves this time so it may discourage some of the smaller players. Who really knows? But whatever happens, my prediction is that the fallout from this will cause real hurt for the UK for quite some time.
As for the EU, I suspect you may be right that they have a day of reckoning coming, but I don’t think it will be Brexit that triggers it.
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As a side note, since I softened from thinking hard Brexit would be a disaster, to thinking the fallout wouldn't actually be that bad, I've noticed a theme on here of people being a bit more bearish on it.
Wonder why that is. I'm a woeful investor, so it's kind of worrying!
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
As a side note, since I softened from thinking hard Brexit would be a disaster, to thinking the fallout wouldn't actually be that bad, I've noticed a theme on here of people being a bit more bearish on it.
Wonder why that is. I'm a woeful investor, so it's kind of worrying!
Talking to a strat bond fund manager the other day and he was talking about the tightrope the BoE are walking, Brexit and the possibility of a Corbyn Government and he was pretty bearish overall. His rationale re a hard or no deal Brexit was twofold. Firstly that there is a high chance of Sterling tanking as it did after the vote and secondly that there would be a lot of disgruntled people and, more importantly, politicians, which could lead to Boris's flimsy majority disappearing. The weakening of Sterling is likely to import inflation, add to that the the likelihood of a potential Corbynista Govt being inflationary, it leaves the BoE in a very difficult situation. The usual ways of dealing with inflation and a weakening pound have been to raise interest rates but with the economy teetering on the brink and the country (both private and corporate) racked up to the neck in cheap debt, raising of rates could be disastrous.
As an aside, did you read Jeremy Paxman's tirade against politicians and the last three Prime Ministers in particular? Quite brutal but all things considered, not unfair. Though his views on how to rectify it were all bit pie in the sky and simple.
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Latest news: Government to suspend Parliament. Prorogation, just what Boris said he wouldn't do.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
Latest news: Government to suspend Parliament. Prorogation, just what Boris said he wouldn't do.
Here you go, @MiketheSnow no need to be shy either
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
Latest news: Government to suspend Parliament. Prorogation, just what Boris said he wouldn't do.
Here you go, @MiketheSnow no need to be shy either
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@MiketheSnow said in Brexit:
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
Latest news: Government to suspend Parliament. Prorogation, just what Boris said he wouldn't do.
Here you go, @MiketheSnow no need to be shy either
I thought you were based in Japan ...
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The amount of screaming on social media from Remainers about this being antidemocratic is pretty amusing, given the same people are very happy to ignore a referendum result.
Either both things are antidemocratic, or neither are.
If the latter, then the real debate is over whether parliamentary or direct democracy has primacy. Which is a perfectly fine debate to have.
But just screaming that the one you don't like is antidemocratic, and ignoring the other is hopeless. And that's what 99% of people seem to be doing.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@MiketheSnow said in Brexit:
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
Latest news: Government to suspend Parliament. Prorogation, just what Boris said he wouldn't do.
Here you go, @MiketheSnow no need to be shy either
I thought you were based in Japan ...
Only for the winter, God's country the rest of the year
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The amount of screaming on social media from Remainers about this being antidemocratic is pretty amusing, given the same people are very happy to ignore a referendum result.
Either both things are antidemocratic, or neither are.
If the latter, then the real debate is over whether parliamentary or direct democracy has primacy. Which is a perfectly fine debate to have.
But just screaming that the one you don't like is antidemocratic, and ignoring the other is hopeless. And that's what 99% of people seem to be doing.
I think it's all related to the widespread belief / myth that people were influenced in the buildup to the 2016 referendum by bullshit. The same people that shrieked this after the referendum are now trying the same tactic to get their way.
I get the way parliament works, and in all essence, I truly believe this is the way it has to work. But surely the anti-no-deal guys now are better off using their time to present solutions to the problem to BoJo and his team, as opposed to continually try to do something that Boris has always firmly said he will fight against.
All of Merkel, Macron & Tusk have said show us your ideas. If you want a deal, shouldn't you be working on these ideas?
EDIT ... apologise for using gender language ...
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People hate uncertainty. And they hate politicians. So politicians promoting uncertainty are in trouble. And Boris is doing a great job of making the parliament look like they are promoting uncertainty. Highly debateable that they are, but by god the remain side just have a plethora of really annoying characters. Is there a single likeable remainer politician? They just seem so shrill, panicky and condescending... Makes goofy ole Boris seem nice., makes shouty broken record Farage look fresh, makes plum in mouth Rees Mogg look like a man of the people..... That's the Brexit miracle
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I think it's all related to the widespread belief / myth that people were influenced in the buildup to the 2016 referendum by bullshit.
I think it may be a lot deeper than that and related to a growing split between the top 20-25% of people (where power & wealth are centred) and the rest of society - particularly places outside of London where people have been left behind.
E.g. Remainers wax lyrical about how wonderfully "diverse" London is due to EU membership and how their kids can work in the EU while people in places like Lowestoft complain about wages being driven down and the nature of their communities changing rapidly by immigration from Eastern Europe.
That divide needs to be fixed but what's staggering is how the Remain side think reversing the referendum result is somehow going to put the genie back in the bottle and we can all carry on as before.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I think it's all related to the widespread belief / myth that people were influenced in the buildup to the 2016 referendum by bullshit.
I think it may be a lot deeper than that and related to a growing split between the top 20-25% of people (where power & wealth are centred) and the rest of society - particularly places outside of London where people have been left behind.
E.g. Remainers wax lyrical about how wonderfully "diverse" London is due to EU membership and how their kids can work in the EU while people in places like Lowestoft complain about wages being driven down and the nature of their communities changing rapidly by immigration from Eastern Europe.
That divide needs to be fixed but what's staggering is how the Remain side think reversing the referendum result is somehow going to put the genie back in the bottle and we can all carry on as before.
You've just summed up Brexit!
I was summing up why I think what is happening, is happening.
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@Billy-Webb said in Brexit:
From so far away (in SA) the UK leaving the EU just seems completely economically daft to me.
I thought that as well for quite some time and influenced how I voted. But I've changed my mind substantially.
The EU's protectionist and inward-looking approach to the world is simply untenable as it's economic influence wanes and power shifts to Asia Pacific. Can't see any change soon though
I think there's more trade opportunities for the UK outside of the EU than inside - where UK companies will be hit by retaliatory tariffs on EU goods by countries like Indonesia and India.
But then that's not short-term and the UK doesn't do anything but short-term thinking...
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I was summing up why I think what is happening, is happening.
What's happening is that Boris seems to be 2-3 steps ahead of anyone else - unlike May who seemed 2-3 steps behind. Hope he has a risk-management plan.
What was it Confucius said about interesting times?
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@Billy-Webb said in Brexit:
From so far away (in SA) the UK leaving the EU just seems completely economically daft to me.
I thought that as well for quite some time and influenced how I voted. But I've changed my mind substantially.
The EU's protectionist and inward-looking approach to the world is simply untenable as it's economic influence wanes and power shifts to Asia Pacific. Can't see any change soon though
I think there's more trade opportunities for the UK outside of the EU than inside - where UK companies will be hit by retaliatory tariffs on EU goods by countries like Indonesia and India.
But then that's not short-term and the UK doesn't do anything but short-term thinking...
I'm exactly the same, voted remain but have changed my mind. Am in favour of no-deal now as the EU will never give us an even okay-ish deal (pragmatic from then). And amazed at how many ppl in my own London-centric bubble are keen fro a second referendum with remain on the ballot or to revoke A50 entirely.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@Billy-Webb said in Brexit:
From so far away (in SA) the UK leaving the EU just seems completely economically daft to me.
I thought that as well for quite some time and influenced how I voted. But I've changed my mind substantially.
The EU's protectionist and inward-looking approach to the world is simply untenable as it's economic influence wanes and power shifts to Asia Pacific. Can't see any change soon though
I think there's more trade opportunities for the UK outside of the EU than inside - where UK companies will be hit by retaliatory tariffs on EU goods by countries like Indonesia and India.
But then that's not short-term and the UK doesn't do anything but short-term thinking...
I'm exactly the same, voted remain but have changed my mind. Am in favour of no-deal now as the EU will never give us an even okay-ish deal (pragmatic from then). And amazed at how many ppl in my own London-centric bubble are keen fro a second referendum with remain on the ballot or to revoke A50 entirely.
I'm equally amazed at how many people have switched remain to leave. I think Baron's points are probably a contributory factor to that.
I'm not in favour of no-deal. The last thing this country needs right now is disorder. Although I do acknowledge that disorder will probably allow the country to move forwards from it's partnership with the EU much quicker.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I think it's all related to the widespread belief / myth that people were influenced in the buildup to the 2016 referendum by bullshit.
I think it may be a lot deeper than that and related to a growing split between the top 20-25% of people (where power & wealth are centred) and the rest of society - particularly places outside of London where people have been left behind.
E.g. Remainers wax lyrical about how wonderfully "diverse" London is due to EU membership and how their kids can work in the EU while people in places like Lowestoft complain about wages being driven down and the nature of their communities changing rapidly by immigration from Eastern Europe.
That divide needs to be fixed but what's staggering is how the Remain side think reversing the referendum result is somehow going to put the genie back in the bottle and we can all carry on as before.
Wonderful explanation.
While from afar my view is based around economics - what I am increasingly aware of is that it is the movement of people and its rapid impact on society (communities, wages etc) that is probably one of the corner stones for unhappiness with UK's EU membership. I can understand and empathise with that. -
An FTA with the US, Oz, NZ, Canada & Japan can be put in place quite quickly. Think some are already done and dusted as they are carrying over current EU FTA's
Would be great to have an FTA with the EU too
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There's another view from business as well. Companies with markets in India & AsPac see risks from being denied and/or restricted market access due to EU membership. JCB, Dyson, Triumph Motorcycles etc.
Insurance is a big, sucessful UK industry and my ex-colleagues tell me they are concerned that the Trade agreements being put in place between India, Oz, Canada & other growing Asian economies will freeze them out . They want in.
So the question is this: do we stay in the EU and be safe and secure but with minimal growth or do we take a risk and be swashbuckling?
Brexit