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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
This is catastrophic for BoJo but recoverable, in my view. He should release a statement along the lines of
“Ever get the feeling the establishment is trying to prevent me from leading the UK out of Europe, which you voted for”
I think you're right. It's very much the establishment vs the people. Win be interesting what his next move is.
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I'm not sure you're on the right track on this. The decision from the Supreme Court is about the prorogation of Parliament not Brexit. The Judges have been at pains to point this out all along. Allied to that is the fact that Boris has always stated that Prorogation had nothing to do with Brexit but was just the normal process. It will be mighty difficult for him to now state this is preventing him from delivering Brexit. That would show him to be a, what's the word? Liar? His position has become very difficult. It all just adds to the mess. This really is the gift that keeps on giving.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
I'm not sure you're on the right track on this. The decision from the Supreme Court is about the prorogation of Parliament not Brexit. The Judges have been at pains to point this out all along. Allied to that is the fact that Boris has always stated that Prorogation had nothing to do with Brexit but was just the normal process. It will be mighty difficult for him to now state this is preventing him from delivering Brexit. That would show him to be a, what's the word? Liar? His position has become very difficult. It all just adds to the mess. This really is the gift that keeps on giving.
I know I'm not on the right track. But le's face it .. this can easily be spun as just another delay.
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@Catogrande @MajorRage I reckon you're both right. It simultaneously isn't about Brexit, but will be spun as part of the "people vs parliament" narrative that BoJo is betting he can win an electoral majority with. It might even work, despite the poor optics of this for the Tories.
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The issue is that we're in a total mess with Brexit, it really should have been put to bed ages ago but has just got worse and worse. I can see why Boris was trying to ride roughshod over Parliamentary procedure but it was a high risk game plan and has come unstuck. It might just help him force an election and if so he'd likely win a majority, but will he get the Parliamentary support to call an election? It suits many in his own party and certainly those in Labour to let him handle the almighty fuck up that we have and watch him fuck it up further. Not very statesman-like and for sure putting party before country but I wouldn't put anything past the current rabble we have leading us.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
It will be mighty difficult for him to now state this is preventing him from delivering Brexit.
Quite the opposite, have the opposition actually thought through what they will be doing with the agenda now that parliament is sitting? They kicked the can down the road on Brexit... now what?
Boris will can (and I assume will) move various options to move the process forward which will all be voted down while in a holding pattern until mid October. It's not going to be a great look for the opposition.
Does this now bring into play the nuclear option for Boris to call a no confidence motion on himself and force the insurgents to back Corbyn or accept the election? The ideal timing is probably a few weeks off for that. But turning the spotlight on the opposition watching them try to form government for two weeks would be the ideal entree into an election campaign for the Conservatives.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
It will be mighty difficult for him to now state this is preventing him from delivering Brexit.
Quite the opposite, have the opposition actually thought through what they will be doing with the agenda now that parliament is sitting? They kicked the can down the road on Brexit... now what?
Boris will can (and I assume will) move various options to move the process forward which will all be voted down while in a holding pattern until mid October. It's not going to be a great look for the opposition.
Does this now bring into play the nuclear option for Boris to call a no confidence motion on himself and force the insurgents to back Corbyn or accept the election? The ideal timing is probably a few weeks off for that. But turning the spotlight on the opposition watching them try to form government for two weeks would be the ideal entree into an election campaign for the Conservatives.
Now what? has been the question for some time and I honestly cannot think what coherent plan either faction might have, nor who can truthfully claim the moral high ground. Parliament who are refusing to accede to the public will and thereby going against democracy or Boris who has tried to suspend democracy whilst looking like he is acceding to the public will.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
@TeWaio I think that whatever the ruling (and this one surprised me a little) it was going to be a messy outcome, but you're right this is a mighty big spanner in the works.
Is Johnson's position now untenable? He's been shown to be a liar many times before and now he stands as being accused of lying to the Queen. Where now for BoJo?
I don't think the decision said that BJ lied. BTW the Pres of SC is a Remainer activist.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
It will be mighty difficult for him to now state this is preventing him from delivering Brexit.
Quite the opposite, have the opposition actually thought through what they will be doing with the agenda now that parliament is sitting? They kicked the can down the road on Brexit... now what?
Boris will can (and I assume will) move various options to move the process forward which will all be voted down while in a holding pattern until mid October. It's not going to be a great look for the opposition.
Does this now bring into play the nuclear option for Boris to call a no confidence motion on himself and force the insurgents to back Corbyn or accept the election? The ideal timing is probably a few weeks off for that. But turning the spotlight on the opposition watching them try to form government for two weeks would be the ideal entree into an election campaign for the Conservatives.
Now what? has been the question for some time and I honestly cannot think what coherent plan either faction might have, nor who can truthfully claim the moral high ground. Parliament who are refusing to accede to the public will and thereby going against democracy or Boris who has tried to suspend democracy whilst looking like he is acceding to the public will.
Parliament will be badly exposed when it resumes. Nothing worthwhile will occur and SC reasoning will be made mockery of. Extension will be conditioned on GE in December, so opposition need to find some coherence otherwise it's just more power to BJ's elbow.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
@TeWaio I think that whatever the ruling (and this one surprised me a little) it was going to be a messy outcome, but you're right this is a mighty big spanner in the works.
Is Johnson's position now untenable? He's been shown to be a liar many times before and now he stands as being accused of lying to the Queen. Where now for BoJo?
I don't think the decision said that BJ lied. BTW the Pres of SC is a Remainer activist.
Hence my saying "stands as being accused of lying to the Queen". The actual finding was that he misled the Monarch, but we're dancing on the had of a pin here.
The Pres of the SC may well be a remainer but the verdict was unanimous. That's 11 Justices out of 11, damning Boris' actions. One being a remainer is not an issue.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
It will be mighty difficult for him to now state this is preventing him from delivering Brexit.
Quite the opposite, have the opposition actually thought through what they will be doing with the agenda now that parliament is sitting? They kicked the can down the road on Brexit... now what?
Boris will can (and I assume will) move various options to move the process forward which will all be voted down while in a holding pattern until mid October. It's not going to be a great look for the opposition.
Does this now bring into play the nuclear option for Boris to call a no confidence motion on himself and force the insurgents to back Corbyn or accept the election? The ideal timing is probably a few weeks off for that. But turning the spotlight on the opposition watching them try to form government for two weeks would be the ideal entree into an election campaign for the Conservatives.
Now what? has been the question for some time and I honestly cannot think what coherent plan either faction might have, nor who can truthfully claim the moral high ground. Parliament who are refusing to accede to the public will and thereby going against democracy or Boris who has tried to suspend democracy whilst looking like he is acceding to the public will.
Parliament will be badly exposed when it resumes. Nothing worthwhile will occur and SC reasoning will be made mockery of. Extension will be conditioned on GE in December, so opposition need to find some coherence otherwise it's just more power to BJ's elbow.
You are nothing if not optimistic. As you were when you said this "The Scottish reasoning won't get out of starting stalls with Supreme Court."
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
Now what? has been the question for some time and I honestly cannot think what coherent plan either faction might have, nor who can truthfully claim the moral high ground. Parliament who are refusing to accede to the public will and thereby going against democracy or Boris who has tried to suspend democracy whilst looking like he is acceding to the public will.
I don't think the Conservative strategy is particularly incoherent nor has it changed since Boris became PM. Pull out all stops (or appear to be seen to do so) to Brexit by October 31 - and if prevented from doing so parlay that directly into an GE where Labor are positioned as the delayers of Brexit.
Obviously a lot more thought and work is being done from Cummings & co as to what happens when Brexit is delayed than is being let on - but from a public perspective I think it's pretty important Boris remains full steam ahead for October 31 at least until after October 19.
What the opposition's strategy is from here? Who knows?
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
Now what? has been the question for some time and I honestly cannot think what coherent plan either faction might have, nor who can truthfully claim the moral high ground. Parliament who are refusing to accede to the public will and thereby going against democracy or Boris who has tried to suspend democracy whilst looking like he is acceding to the public will.
I don't think the Conservative strategy is particularly incoherent nor has it changed since Boris became PM. Pull out all stops (or appear to be seen to do so) to Brexit by October 31 - and if prevented from doing so parlay that directly into an GE where Labor are positioned as the delayers of Brexit.
Obviously a lot more thought and work is being done from Cummings & co as to what happens when Brexit is delayed than is being let on - but from a public perspective I think it's pretty important Boris remains full steam ahead for October 31 at least until after October 19.
What the opposition's strategy is from here? Who knows?
You may well be right in that Boris and his supporters might have a coherent plan, ( he's certainly
deviouspolitical enough) but that is not ""the Conservatives" - too many remainer rebels for that to apply. I know he has refused the whip to these people, quite a lot really but it is far from certain that he will regain those seats in a GE. Whichever way you look at it, he is playing fast and loose. Maybe that is what is required to get through the deadlock. In some ways I hope so, as like many I just want to see this farce ended, but I doubt it. As to Labour do they even know what they want other than it's not what the Tories want? They're pathetic. -
The sc has decided to enter the realm of public politics. That's a shame for its credibility.
They made the decision based on what they thought his motives were. A dangerous decision.
The SC is now political. Boris should attack them, question their motives, they are led by a activist remainer, therefore he should make a declaration of her motives for the decision.
This is actually a very bad day for the UK system. And Boris will exploit it.
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No, the UK Supreme Court did its job. It exerted the Rule of Law and the Sovereignty of Parliament. Things that Brexiteers used to be (rightly) very keen on. Today was a good day for the UK Constitution.
The Supreme Court ruled prorogation unlawful but did not say it was illegal. Prorogation can only really happen with the tacit consent of Parliament, but no grounds to prosecute or impeach Johnson. He fights on (but for what exactly?).
Johnson's problem is that he doesn't command a Commons majority. My advice to the Prime Minister would be to repeal the redudant Fixed Term Parliament Act and call an election.
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The SC did its job? I am not sure what that means. The SC made a decision in a case bought before it I guess.
But it absolutely stepped into politics and has changed things profoundly from a constitutional perspective. Whether that is a good thing seems to depend on whether you voted leave or remain, and therein lies the issue.
The Supreme Court has stepped into politics and did so by judging the motives of the leader of a co-equal branch of govt. The PM should now do the same to the Supreme Court.The leave people are going to lose trust in the Supreme Court as the court has been seen to have made a decision based on politics.
Not a single vote will be lost by Boris over this
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Dunno about that. It was 11/11 who said it was it wasn’t legal, that’s pretty damning.
Agree tho that I don’t think this will hurt Boris in public opinion. The country can’t movr forward until it’s done - and he seems one of very few who is actually trying to achieve it.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Dunno about that. It was 11/11 who said it was it wasn’t legal, that’s pretty damning.
Agree tho that I don’t think this will hurt Boris in public opinion. The country can’t movr forward until it’s done - and he seems one of very few who is actually trying to achieve it.
Not legal as they didn't believe his statement on motive though right?
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