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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
It’s here it’s happening, let the people rejoice!
Will it work? In reality I don’t know ...
But I think Varadkar interview has pushed me into believing this is the right decison.
Good time to buy some NZD just in case?
Best time was a few months ago. The next 9 months will have plenty of volatility as deal striking moves forwards tho.
I don’t think the aims are that far apart. Fishing and ag are likely to be huge blockers and city services real crush points. EU legislation is terrible on these 3 and if the UK holds firm, then they do have bargaining power. The people, skill set and infrastructure are here. Remember if it’s no deal, Boris can drop Corp tax further, encouraging talent via other mediums. The euro already pays you to take its money, and is forever looking at ways to make things more difficult.
The above is obviously a bit of a pipe dream, but there is enough fact there to at least give the UK a good shot at success.
Genuinely quite excited.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
It’s here it’s happening, let the people rejoice!
Will it work? In reality I don’t know ...
But I think Varadkar interview has pushed me into believing this is the right decison.
Good time to buy some NZD just in case?
Projections are for the NZD to soften slightly against Sterling in the short term and by as much as 10% in the longer term. Hold onto your pounds IMO.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
It’s here it’s happening, let the people rejoice!
Will it work? In reality I don’t know ...
But I think Varadkar interview has pushed me into believing this is the right decison.
Good time to buy some NZD just in case?
Why?
Can you think of any reason?
No good ones. Hence my question
Ahh I see, so what you meant to say was that you can't think of any good reason to? Thanks. Helpful as usual.
Nope I meant exactly what I said. Why. Why would you gamble on the currency market when everything is uncertain and predictions have ed been so wrong. I should mansplained it for you more I guess.
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@JC @MajorRage Chur.
I'll buy some union jack's to hang out the upstairs windows instead.
Probably best. My advice - that I’m well aware you didn’t ask for- is don’t play the FX markets unless you have deep pockets and are prepared to write off your stake. Pros have access to analysis that includes modelling of the other players in the market (what Keynes called “guess[ing] better than the crowd how the crowd will behave.”) And yet ultimately they’re still guessing so they hedge their positions, which is pretty hard for the likes of us to do in an ad hoc way. But if you’re not analysing and hedging you’re just gambling, so put it on one of @Hooroo ’s horses instead
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Leo had an interview an interview and went pretty guns blazing. Must be a fair bit of anti UK sentiment in Ireland he’s trying to grab hold of.
Not really sure what “we have the upper hand is supposed to achieve” ...
Fail. His party has dropped 7 points after this interview.
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@JC @MajorRage Chur.
I'll buy some union jack's to hang out the upstairs windows instead.
Probably best. My advice - that I’m well aware you didn’t ask for- is don’t play the FX markets unless you have deep pockets and are prepared to write off your stake. Pros have access to analysis that includes modelling of the other players in the market (what Keynes called “guess[ing] better than the crowd how the crowd will behave.”) And yet ultimately they’re still guessing so they hedge their positions, which is pretty hard for the likes of us to do in an ad hoc way. But if you’re not analysing and hedging you’re just gambling, so put it on one of @Hooroo ’s horses instead
True. But the best trading Hedge Funds on the planet will generally get 52-55% success rate with trades. So reality is they don’t know shit either!!!
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@JC @MajorRage Chur.
I'll buy some union jack's to hang out the upstairs windows instead.
Probably best. My advice - that I’m well aware you didn’t ask for- is don’t play the FX markets unless you have deep pockets and are prepared to write off your stake. Pros have access to analysis that includes modelling of the other players in the market (what Keynes called “guess[ing] better than the crowd how the crowd will behave.”) And yet ultimately they’re still guessing so they hedge their positions, which is pretty hard for the likes of us to do in an ad hoc way. But if you’re not analysing and hedging you’re just gambling, so put it on one of @Hooroo ’s horses instead
Polly grey is 10 from 14 win or place so it sounds as though you are right. 2019/2020 has her 5/5 win/place so that is really good
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@taniwharugby said in Brexit:
@Hooroo when is she running again?
All going to plan, 22nd of Feb is her first start. Horses are great at not sticking to plans though
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@JC @MajorRage Chur.
I'll buy some union jack's to hang out the upstairs windows instead.
Probably best. My advice - that I’m well aware you didn’t ask for- is don’t play the FX markets unless you have deep pockets and are prepared to write off your stake. Pros have access to analysis that includes modelling of the other players in the market (what Keynes called “guess[ing] better than the crowd how the crowd will behave.”) And yet ultimately they’re still guessing so they hedge their positions, which is pretty hard for the likes of us to do in an ad hoc way. But if you’re not analysing and hedging you’re just gambling, so put it on one of @Hooroo ’s horses instead
Polly grey is 10 from 14 win or place so it sounds as though you are right. 2019/2020 has her 5/5 win/place so that is really good
Noted. Investment opportunity right there!
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A colleague of my wife's at a major UK law firm posted on fb on Brexit day:
"I don't mean to sound harsh, but if you are over 65 and voted for Brexit and are today attending a leaving party, I hope you die".
UK people have lost their mind over this.
Culture wars.
The "Liberal Metropolitan Elite" v "Populism". The former can't understand why the latter vote the way they do and call them xenophobic, thick, easily duped and racist (Brexit) - or "deplorables" for voting for Trump.
As the "Liberal Metropolitan Elite" pay for the majority of public services and their approach held sway for decades, they probably feel aggrieved at their loss of influence and perceived lack of gratitude from "the populists"
Gonna get worse before it gets better, I reckon.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Reports today that Barnier has told opposition MPs that EU would be receptive to one to two year transition extension.
You would think that this sort of thing would be a pragmatic decision to make wouldn't you?
It depends on how much UK would have to pay into the colossal budgets EU have set aside to help other nations after they were so pitiful to Italy & Spain.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Reports today that Barnier has told opposition MPs that EU would be receptive to one to two year transition extension.
You would think that this sort of thing would be a pragmatic decision to make wouldn't you?
It depends on how much UK would have to pay into the colossal budgets EU have set aside to help other nations after they were so pitiful to Italy & Spain.
Reading between the lines, there is a huge bill attached to extension.
But I have no doubt a deal will be done by 31 December. But the special of the day rather than the gourmet menu.
Brexit