Coronavirus - Overall
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@Chris-B said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
This popped up on my FB feed - written by a NZer living in Chengdu, China.
Details of the day-to-day lockdown are interesting.
That is an excellent article. For those who missed clicking the link there is lots of good stuff there, I took it upon myself to post it up in full. The bit about masks was quite informative. Shame you can't get them for love or money at the moment.
Pandemic – that terrible word indicating that the coronavirus has now spanned the globe and is infecting the entire planet – is enough to make strong men and women tremble and drive people to fill the house with water and toilet paper.
I am living through the crisis in China – so far 8 weeks of effective ‘house arrest’ – and still counting because we are still not allowed to dance down the street quite yet unrestrained impulsiveness.
We are not allowed visitors. We get our temperatures checked coming and going from the apartment complex – if your temperature is higher than 37C (99F) then you are denied entry to your home and have to front up to one of the 4 coronavirus hospitals in Chengdu for testing.
You can only return to work if all staff have a health certificate stating they are clear of the virus and you have enough health supplies – 2 masks per person per day, hand sanitizer, temperature checking guns (point and read), gloves and a register of every single coming and going.
All bars and restaurants closed except for delivery – delivery drivers get tested every time they set off and the App shows their temperature. Orders left at the gate.
Only food supply shops have been open for the past 7 weeks but other shops starting to open in the 8th week.
So, what have we learned:
Corona
Yes, it is a nasty virus with a 2% grim reaping statistic, and it has the annoying thing that you can have it and not know it (47% of people are asymptomatic or have mild cases) and that makes it easy to spread.But in China only 0.0072 % of the population was infected and the virus has killed 2% of those.
The chances of you getting and then dying from this is not a huge risk unless the solution to the spread (i.e. containment and tracking) is not implemented strictly.
Don’t panic. Unless you are over 80 years old and have pre-existing health conditions then the chances of this being the final stop are minimal. The younger you are the better. So, protect the older members of the family first.
Containment
Containment is the key to stopping this – China delayed for one week in getting the containment and the result (according the latest modeling statistics) was 66% more cases than if they had started one week earlier.So, start containment as early as possible to ‘flatten the curve’ – spread the cases over a longer period of time.
Containment means your cooperation – it means you staying at home and being a good boy/girl and not thinking you can be the exception.
Do your bit for the people who have family who might have a higher risk than you personally – every person who does fall to this virus is someone’s loved one.
Masks – the Hairy Biker in the Room
Lots of moaning, Facebook Warriors, Twittering Tweeters and’ Legends in Their Own Minds’ are telling you masks aren’t effective. And yes, I have read what the CDC said about this.Rubbish.
The stats out of China are that you have 5 times LESS chance of contracting the virus if you (and everyone else) wears a mask.
The masks don’t stop the virus particles – but they do stop the droplets – which contain the virus and if you are wearing a mask then droplets wont get into your nose but more importantly, they stop droplets coming from an infected nose getting across to you.
And they stop you touching your face – that’d have to be good if your fingers happen to have the virus particles on them.
And if you don’t know you have it and don’t wear a mask then you are a spreader and other people will be accepters and then the numbers go up and up and up.
In China go out without a mask one two things will happen – you will be heavily criticised, and I mean heavily to the point of being cursed and, in a few cases beaten, by the people, and you will get fined by the police.
Wear a mask because the actual figures (which you can call facts) support wearing a mask.
Gloves
Get some latex/vinyl gloves and don’t go out without them – and take them off and throw them away as soon as you walk back in the door – if you have been out (wearing a mask, of course)Single most common way of transmission – touching your face with infected fingers.
Gloves/Sanitizer/Soap – that’ll make a big difference.
The Flu
Whatever you read about how many people the flu kills forget it.This is way worse than the flu and not for the obvious reason.
Here are the facts.
Corona is 20 times more deadly than the flu 0.1% of infected people die from the flu – 2% die from corona – do the math – 20 times more deadly.
Infectiousness – the flu infects between 5% – a good year and 20% – a very bad year – of a population.
Corona is similarly infectious as the flu – so if corona was allowed completely free run in the United States for example there could be as many as 65 million cases and 1 million deaths.
BUT – and this is the big but, which is making governments tremble – it is not just these figures – it is these figures:
14% of corona patients need hospital care – which defines as being on oxygen for 2-3 weeks and 5% need critical/intensive care.
That’s a total of 20%
10% of the population (US here – insert your own countries population) with corona = 32.7 million
20% hospitalized = 6.54 million hospitalizations.
Unless you can build hospitals in 8 days (or 16 new hospitals in 3 weeks) then you are going to have a lot of people without care.
This is the nuclear bomb corona carries in its pocket – HEALTH SYSTEM CAPACITY
2 Months Goes like a Slippery Eel through a Weir. Fast
If you are required to stay at home for 8 weeks it goes fast and if you feel that living in your home, with plenty to eat and drink, movies to watch, books to read, music to listen to is a hassle then you need a new life and a new home.It is one of the most rewarding experiences if you approach it right – personally I’ve written material for two books, designed a whole new Virtual Reality Headset, added 15 new sales agents to our network, and managed more work than what I could have managed from the office.
It’s a time for reflection, thought, introspection, renewal and reward. You will get to know your loved ones all over again and whether that leads to a deeper relationship or divorce is up to you – but it’s a byproduct of ‘house arrest’
This glass is half full.
Courage and Calm
You want to know what it is like having 1.4 billion people under lock down?Calm and courage – you will never experience the wonderful strength of the Chinese people until you see them deal with something like this.
No moaning. No protesting. No pushing and shoving at the market of the supermarket. What I have seen has been acceptance, determination and grit.
Its WW2 and the Pearl Harbour/Blitz type of spirit. We have a problem, lets solve it.
People are noticeably friendlier, unified and happier. I am proud to be a member of this society.
Don’t Worry
Worried about your business?Find new ways to do what you have done in the past – use the time to reassess your entire strategy, your business plans and what you really want to do.
It’ll be tough – no doubt about that – but WW2 was tough – 80 million people died. 9/11 was tough. 2008 was tough.
But you are still here.
Times of trouble are times of change – embrace it or let it destroy you – it’s your choice.
This will impact the entire globe – it will expose weaknesses and strengths in all sorts of places – starting with governments.
We had 4 calls from government bodies during this crisis – offering us (for our business) – interest free loans, payroll subsidies (equivalent to 1 months’ salary for every staff member), bank delaying payments by two months (China has ordered the banks to forego profits in 2020) and new banking finance support available. And we are NOT a huge company at all.
Invest in courier drivers, home hair clippers and any other home equipment suppliers – gym equipment, massage, health and beauty – sales of these have rocketed here in China.
Finally, this is a message of hope and not of despair – be safe by being sensible and don’t panic – this will pass.
It may be the biggest thing that Boomer/Gen X Y and Millennials have faced (or it may not) but it can be beaten – China has beaten this in 2 months after a rocky start.
And personally, if there is anything, I can do to help you, let me know –I’m busting with new ideas and ways to make your business grow even in ‘Interesting Times’
Be safe and be sensible.
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12 or 14 days compulsory self isolation is a long time out of the workforce for those that don't actually have the virus.
I'm hopeful, in the near future, an arriving passenger has a facility to get or buy a
test to confirm or deny presence of the virus and forego the compulsory self isolation.
Even a swab with results emailed 4 days later would be preferable, and more accurate than 12 days out of the workforce.
I think this close the border thing is gonna hurt a lot more than anticipated. But I acknowledge it's necessary when we all realised that our health services wouldn't cope.
12 days when you're not actually infected?? Hope we can do better than that.
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A few snapshots from countries heavily affected.
China -from the point of view of someone who is now based in the USA but has family in affected regions
Madrid- From an ex-pat meetup group
Italy - I can't verify the source of it though it matches descriptions on other Italian nurse and doctor posts on twitter/facebook etc -
My brother-in-law is Italian and is in daily contact with his family who live in NW Italy.
The current situation in Italy is much worse than what we are hearing, primarily as a consequence of the health system not being able to cope with the large number of sick people. That video is indicative of the challenges their hospitals are facing.
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Give this man a knighthood now
Via the medium of bucket and water 💦this is a brilliant explanation of UK 🇬🇧 Gvt scientists 👨🔬 👩🔬 WuFlu strategy 👏👏
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Great article which models the various containment strategies. Highly recommend
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback That's really interesting, Thanks for posting. That and the bucket of water explanation @MiketheSnow provided illustrate that Boris and co's planning might not be so God awful.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Give this man a knighthood now
Via the medium of bucket and water 💦this is a brilliant explanation of UK 🇬🇧 Gvt scientists 👨🔬 👩🔬 WuFlu strategy 👏👏
Obviously you'd want to get the timing right...
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I'm not having a dig here and am no fan of Trump, but have learned to question what he's reported to have said and what he actually said. In most cases it bears scant relation to reality.
It's not a big deal, no worse than the flu
What he actually said: "Last year 37,000 Americans died from the common flu. Nothing is shut down, life and the economy go on... Think about that."
2 It's not a big deal, we got this
3 It's all Europe and China's fault, but we still got thisCan't find these quotes. He did say this on Europe and China though: ""We made a life-saving move with early action on China. Now we must take the same action with Europe."
4 We have enough tests for everyone (not enough by a mile)
What he actually said. "The US has done a very good job on testing. When people need a test they can get a test."
As I said, he isn't my cup of tea, and we don't need hiis bombast right now, but Trump Derangement Syndrome in the media seems as real as Covid-19....
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Give this man a knighthood now
Via the medium of bucket and water 💦this is a brilliant explanation of UK 🇬🇧 Gvt scientists 👨🔬 👩🔬 WuFlu strategy 👏👏
Obviously you'd want to get the timing right...
I'm hoping that this doesn't mean NZ is setting itself up for an overload of cases in the main flu season July/Aug.....
...it could be wiser to let it spread around NZ during the summer time, to let more people build up immunity to it (and I say this while concerned about my older relatives)....
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A question, probably for @Tim Does the test for the virus tell whether or not you've had it and are no longer contagious? Or is it simply a yes you have it/no you don't result?
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Newt in Italy gives his view: https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingrich-i-am-italy-amid-coronavirus-crisis-america-must-act-now-act-big-opinion-1492270
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Is it just me or is every attention seeking c-grade celebrity telling the world they've been tested?
is anyone else old enough to remember this guy being a really poor singer on NZ variety shows in the 70s ?
Was always difficult to warm to him years later on Aus television with that already in my memory