Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan Is there a word missing?
Typo, fixed thanks.
No worries!
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Not to hijack a NZ thread with an Aus perspective but, what you are aiming for is what we have now, and it's working a treat.
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@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 3 lets more people go to work, but it's hardly a huge improvement on level 4 in terms of the cage doors opening.
However, in good news, apparently, not only is our curve flattening, it's exponentially reducing - halving every 5 days. At this rate, we are probably looking at a total of 6-8 weeks at levels 3&4 (so another 2-4 weeks) and then back to level 2.
The rest of the world is rightly envious of that, because they're generally looking at months of the equivalent of level 3+. 4 weeks seems a bit early to be rolling out the civil liberties flag - human rights and civil liberties are critically important to the NZ democracy, but the most important right is the right to life because the rest are not much use to dead people.
And a cratered economy is a damn sight harder on people on the other side.
This is exactly the sort of scare mongering that drove that poll result.
The original justification for this lockdown was not to eliminate the disease but to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved and over the last four weeks process and capacity has been added to help even more with that.
So let’s move down the levels fast, test appropriately, contain regional reoccurrence, and get back to normalise life.
Even today Cindy was downplaying the huge impact this is having on the economy. “Doing in tough” is not even close to what’s coming IMO.
I think when level 4 started we didn't think it would be as successful as it has been. Now we have a chance to actually eliminate this from New Zealand. The worst thing we could do would be to go down the levels quickly and have it spread. Then you go back to level 4 or have unfettered community transmission and what we have done so far will be for nothing. We have the chance to get back to "normal" in NZ and we should take that if possible.
What a giant leap you make to get from our current 10 cases per day to "unfettered community transmission". We are destroying our economy, and the livelihood of thousands of people, for something that has 18 people in hospital.
It's just absurd.
As it stands, we could return to some semblance of "normal life" in NZ right now. We should be at L3 immediately, where there is next to no extra risk given how tight it is.
L2 should be right around the corner if the data continues on this trajectory.
This BS about elimination and effective contact tracing does my head in. Why do we need to have the "gold standard" / 100% success rate for this? We have no drain on our hospitals. This disease doesn't have some 20% fatality rate on the otherwise-healthy. Do we know where every flu patient has been every year, do we get stressed that they may have visited a rest home or a workplace or a school? Are people asked to keep diaries in case they catch it?
We just dont need to eliminate this thing in NZ. Its a totally unnecessary goal, and it's doing significantly more harm than good right now.
It's not absurd. This started in China from one person getting infected towards the end of last year. In 5 months, it has infected at least two million people all around the world. It is not impossible that 10 cases per day can turn into hundreds and then thousands. It has literally happened like that in other countries around the world.
This is not the flu - we know it is at least six times as deadly. This has killed half as many people in a month in the US compared to what the flu does in a whole year and that it with all the measures that have been put in place.
@hydro11
We know no such thing. Dont make up stuff. It may be, but it may not be. The point is we dont actually know yet.I have not seen anyone credible describe the death rate as less than 0.6%
So? It is fact that they dont know the death of the Wu Flu, but if yiu cna correct me on that feel free to send in the direction of our proof, so I can have a read,
Of course we don't know the exact death rate. There is no one such figure. It depends based on how they are treated and perhaps what dosage they have received. We don't know the death rate for the bubonic plague either. All the estimates I have read from credible people put the death rate at at least 0.6%. They don't know but that is the logical estimate and therefore that is the number we should use to inform public policy.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Going by social media, the NZ public has been totally convinced that the Wu Flu is the worst thing ever.
People are really stupid ... or I am stupid but like all stupid people I dont realise I am stupid. Either way I am in the vast minority in thinking this lock down needs to end asap.I am fast heading back into Hooroo territory of just not caring about the stupid masses and will just look after myself and those I care about. I feel my merciless capitalist self starting to rear its head again,I think I have just lost faith in humanity. They deserve to be dirt poor and working long hours to just pay back their debts. Stupid serf bastards. Civil servants (except nurses and doctors ) can all fuck right off. Selfish pricks.
That rant was quite therapeutic.
From what I can see, people LOVE the idea of being locked down. "There is a big scary thing but the government will fix it all if we do as we're told." Makes me think the world is going to get so much more authoritarian in the future. Governments everywhere are pressing for unprecedented powers, and finding that they're pushing on an open door. The only place I can find anyone properly questioning the cost/benefit of lockdown is the Fern FFS. It's getting quite exasperating.
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@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I query how much better level 3 is for most businesses. Take McDonalds. They can open a drive through but can probably only have like 4 staff at one time? Retail can do online shopping only. People can't travel or move about.
The goal should be to get to level 2 ASAP. Going to level 3 on Thursday is not necessarily the best way to do it.
I see L3 very differently, as a fundamentally different state for business operation. L4 is 'you can't open'. L3 is 'if you can innovate your way to a safe working environment, go for it'.
Even if the business can get to 50% of previous activity, that's an incredible difference compared to L4 where there is zero activity.
Financially, a business running (say) 20% profits on typical turnover (at 50% revenue and 10% cost reduction) effectively foregoes a future month of profit each month of operation. Painful, but you'd bet on being able to get out of it, and do better down the line. At L4, that would be 4 future months of future profit lost each month.That doesn't even consider the sense of being able to control your own destiny and actually do something meaningful about the effects of C19. Sitting at home watching cash reserves dwindle while not being able to go out and do anything about it is soul destroying.
Edit: What's annoying me is the lack of understanding of small businesses. For individuals personally, L3 is basically L4 with takeaways and online shopping. For businesses, it is such a step change from being told 'loser- you can't trade', or 'winner - you can trade'. For trade, replace with 'survive'. Once rules and principles are clear, it allows people to find ways of complying that haven't been contemplated by central thinkers.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 it read to me you were implying that on that basis covid-19 was much worse. My point was the flu season is isn't that long and although unlikely, it could still fall short.
I was implying on that basis that it was much worse. I believe it depends by year but the CDC generally counts the flu season as October-May - so 7-8 months of the year. We have only seen one month of coronavirus and we can see from other countries that deaths lag. So you get on top of the rate of new infections before you get on top of the death rate.
The fact that it takes extreme social distancing to get on top of something like this shows just how dangerous it is.
All available evidence puts coronavirus as being much more deadly than the flu. Even if I pretended it wasn't, it still has a much higher R0 and there is no vaccine, anti-virals or immunity from the previous season. Only around 10% of people actually get the flu each year. Some estimates for corona's R0 would mean that 60% would need to get it before you get herd immunity. So even if it is only as deadly as the flu, it will kill six times as many people if no social distancing measures. That isn't to mention in New Zealand there will still be a flu season which tends to leave our hospitals with no spare beds.
Just to stir the pot, much as the Fern frowns on that, the virulence of the flu is obviously worse than quoted. That is because there are flu vaccines. So the flu may be more virulent, even if vaccines make it manageable?
@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 it read to me you were implying that on that basis covid-19 was much worse. My point was the flu season is isn't that long and although unlikely, it could still fall short.
I was implying on that basis that it was much worse. I believe it depends by year but the CDC generally counts the flu season as October-May - so 7-8 months of the year. We have only seen one month of coronavirus and we can see from other countries that deaths lag. So you get on top of the rate of new infections before you get on top of the death rate.
The fact that it takes extreme social distancing to get on top of something like this shows just how dangerous it is.
All available evidence puts coronavirus as being much more deadly than the flu. Even if I pretended it wasn't, it still has a much higher R0 and there is no vaccine, anti-virals or immunity from the previous season. Only around 10% of people actually get the flu each year. Some estimates for corona's R0 would mean that 60% would need to get it before you get herd immunity. So even if it is only as deadly as the flu, it will kill six times as many people if no social distancing measures. That isn't to mention in New Zealand there will still be a flu season which tends to leave our hospitals with no spare beds.
Just to stir the pot, much as the Fern frowns on that, the virulence of the flu is obviously worse than quoted. That is because there are flu vaccines. So the flu may be more virulent, even if vaccines make it manageable?
It could be but I'm not sure how that stirs the pot.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 3 lets more people go to work, but it's hardly a huge improvement on level 4 in terms of the cage doors opening.
However, in good news, apparently, not only is our curve flattening, it's exponentially reducing - halving every 5 days. At this rate, we are probably looking at a total of 6-8 weeks at levels 3&4 (so another 2-4 weeks) and then back to level 2.
The rest of the world is rightly envious of that, because they're generally looking at months of the equivalent of level 3+. 4 weeks seems a bit early to be rolling out the civil liberties flag - human rights and civil liberties are critically important to the NZ democracy, but the most important right is the right to life because the rest are not much use to dead people.
And a cratered economy is a damn sight harder on people on the other side.
This is exactly the sort of scare mongering that drove that poll result.
The original justification for this lockdown was not to eliminate the disease but to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved and over the last four weeks process and capacity has been added to help even more with that.
So let’s move down the levels fast, test appropriately, contain regional reoccurrence, and get back to normalise life.
Even today Cindy was downplaying the huge impact this is having on the economy. “Doing in tough” is not even close to what’s coming IMO.
I think when level 4 started we didn't think it would be as successful as it has been. Now we have a chance to actually eliminate this from New Zealand. The worst thing we could do would be to go down the levels quickly and have it spread. Then you go back to level 4 or have unfettered community transmission and what we have done so far will be for nothing. We have the chance to get back to "normal" in NZ and we should take that if possible.
What a giant leap you make to get from our current 10 cases per day to "unfettered community transmission". We are destroying our economy, and the livelihood of thousands of people, for something that has 18 people in hospital.
It's just absurd.
As it stands, we could return to some semblance of "normal life" in NZ right now. We should be at L3 immediately, where there is next to no extra risk given how tight it is.
L2 should be right around the corner if the data continues on this trajectory.
This BS about elimination and effective contact tracing does my head in. Why do we need to have the "gold standard" / 100% success rate for this? We have no drain on our hospitals. This disease doesn't have some 20% fatality rate on the otherwise-healthy. Do we know where every flu patient has been every year, do we get stressed that they may have visited a rest home or a workplace or a school? Are people asked to keep diaries in case they catch it?
We just dont need to eliminate this thing in NZ. Its a totally unnecessary goal, and it's doing significantly more harm than good right now.
It's not absurd. This started in China from one person getting infected towards the end of last year. In 5 months, it has infected at least two million people all around the world. It is not impossible that 10 cases per day can turn into hundreds and then thousands. It has literally happened like that in other countries around the world.
This is not the flu - we know it is at least six times as deadly. This has killed half as many people in a month in the US compared to what the flu does in a whole year and that it with all the measures that have been put in place.
@hydro11
We know no such thing. Dont make up stuff. It may be, but it may not be. The point is we dont actually know yet.I have not seen anyone credible describe the death rate as less than 0.6%
So? It is fact that they dont know the death of the Wu Flu, but if yiu cna correct me on that feel free to send in the direction of our proof, so I can have a read,
Of course we don't know the exact death rate. There is no one such figure. It depends based on how they are treated and perhaps what dosage they have received. We don't know the death rate for the bubonic plague either. All the estimates I have read from credible people put the death rate at at least 0.6%. They don't know but that is the logical estimate and therefore that is the number we should use to inform public policy.
Thanks for the link - it is a good one. They are basically saying the death rate is lower because some people who have been classified as dying from coronavirus actually only had the disease and died from something else.
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I wish we could run a poll within a thread that didn't lead the thread. I want to see who thinks we will drop to L3 this week and who thinks we will remain at L4 until after ANZAC day. (or potentially longer)
Personally I think we will drop to L3 but it be like a 3.5.
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@Anonymous breakfast had a scientist on this morning, 2 things that stood out.
1 Our response and decline in rates has been better than the modelling
2 he reckons the modelling shows elimination in 2 weeks (they didn't ask if that was 2 weeks from today or 2 weeks from end of lockdown)But I do like @Donsteppa point above, if most of these people who want yo stay at L4 stay home anyway, that will help too.
I think Mrs TR will have so.e work under L3 but given it is at a retirement village and despite having FULL PPE unsure if they will allow it, my kids will stay home, I'll stay home because I can, and my employer will want any of us who can to do so
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I wish we could run a poll within a thread that didn't lead the thread. I want to see who thinks we will drop to L3 this week and who thinks we will remain at L4 until after ANZAC day. (or potentially longer)
Personally I think we will drop to L3 but it be like a 3.5.
I was confident it was going to l3 this week, seemed they were foreshadowing it with all the talk of what l3 will be etc. But now I think it will stay at lockdown for another week.
One factor being its Anzac weekend ( official holiday is next Monday) so they may feel just extend past that weekend.
Also looks like they haven’t completed the contact tracing system and measures for that. -
@Hooroo pretty sure you can if you just do it in the original post...
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo pretty sure you can if you just do it in the original post...
Yes you can, but I don't want that as it sets the tone for the thread and that isn't my intention. It doesn't really matter though.
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@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I was implying on that basis that it was much worse. I believe it depends by year but the CDC generally counts the flu season as October-May - so 7-8 months of the year. We have only seen one month of coronavirus and we can see from other countries that deaths lag. So you get on top of the rate of new infections before you get on top of the death rate.
The US had recorded cases of Covid-19 in January. They had their first recorded death in February.
The fact that it takes extreme social distancing to get on top of something like this shows just how dangerous it is.
Infuenza is just as dangerous, the difference is with have a vaccine.
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@Kirwan I got annoyed by that. We're not seeing open transparent government here. We don't know if we're pursuing a strategy of eliminating or flattening the curve, we don't know the models that the decisions were based on, we don't know what guidance the police were provided with (and Parker said 'take us to court' if you want to know!)... basically there's some massive holes in the 'open and transparent'.
Regrettably, most folk will hear that reported and think it's true.
I feel out of step with a large proportion of the population on this one. Think the lockdown was not a bad call going in, but the results were great, so we should immediately be starting to trial some relaxation of the rules, and stop trying to pick winners and losers.
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I feel out of step with a large proportion of the population on this one. Think the lockdown was not a bad call going in, but the results were great, so we should immediately be starting to trial some relaxation of the rules, and stop trying to pick winners and losers.
Agree wholeheartedly!
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@antipodean so we come back to the ability of corona to spread faster than the flu as the point of difference. With the lag and changes in the data being available for analysis Covid-19 could still end up nastier than influenza, but who (certainly not WHO) knows when we'll have consensus on findings internationally.