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@Winger https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/02/trump-biden-supporters-campaign-bus
Not at Trump rallies but democrat campaigners enroute. Quite a number of other sources reporting on it.
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Righto my election prediction.
So this is how it sits according to latest polling. 319 Biden to 219 Trump, though a large number are 'technically' toss-ups.
Not pretty viewing and although betting odds are narrowing it doesn't look good for Trump.
The polls are surely more accurate than last time, a lot of reputations got tarnished after 2016 so I can't see the same mistakes being made and I don't buy the idea that polling is intentionally being skewed to dissuade Trump voters (If anything I'd have thought that would energise a base). On top of that Corona has removed Trumps "It's the economy stupid" argument and unlike 2016 msm and social media has gone pretty much all-in on censorship of anything anti-Biden. I find it funny showing supposedly 'politically informed' folk Biden gaff clips that they had absolutely no idea about, let alone the mind-boggling content of crackhead son's laptop.
Having said all that, I still have hope. Trump supporter enthusiasm is off the charts, huge rallies, convoys, regattas. Look up on youtube to find amateur artists writing songs and raps for Trump where there is no real equivalent for Biden. My feeling is those polled who support Trump will vote while those who support just may not, the only enthusiasm is really to be against the Orange Man.
In 2016 we were told he was 'literally Hitler'...and well after 4 years and still no concentrations camps, an increasing support amongst minorities, recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the development of the #blexit & #walkaway movements, a string of peace deals (Bahrain/Israel, Israel/UAE, Serbia/Kosovo, Israel/Sudan), no additional major military conflicts (how long since a president who managed that?)...well where can the anti-Trump argument go? Sure you can hit him with Corona handling, though surely some responsibility lies with state representatives..and of course public gaffs and tweets..but it doesn't really measure up to "Trust us, he is Hitler, electing him will be a crime against humanity!".
Of course the side effect of the extremist anti-Trump narrative pushed by mainstream outlets had the side effect of painting anyone who was either supportive of or even neutral to Trump as being racists/nazis/facists/-insertword-phobic and as such it is your civic duty to berate, dox, assault and do everything in your power to have their means of employment and supporting their family removed. I have a MAGA hat but even in a city on the other side of the world I can nearly guarantee if I was to wear it in public I would be attacked. Has there been any other US president where showing support will likely get you attacked in public in a foreign western country? Hell I had a family member of my partner frothing at the mouth about how Trump and his family need to be murdered for the sake of humanity at a family skype dinner the other day, this from a medical specialist with his own practice. The brainwashing at work to create such a visceral reaction from a respected medical professional is incredible as it is terrifying. I can only imagine this being significantly worse in democrat strongholds & toss-up states and its from this I see the shy Trump support. If anyone asks you say you are voting Democrat because failure to do so could very likely result in significant pain to you or your family.
Finally as cities around the US are busy boarding up their windows for expected violence during election night, you can bet it isn't Trump supporters they are worried about. The twin marxist movements of Antifa and BLM have really made their mark this year, fighting for racial justice and against the evils of capitalism through assault, vandalism, arson and murder. It took Biden until August to condemn the violence with Democrats appearing to openly encourage it until polling started to show that it might not be the vote winner they thought it was. Most recently this occurred in Pennsylvania which is shaping up to be a very key battleground state, this looked to be safely in Biden's hands until a couple weeks ago..
So in conclusion my prediction is that the polling has improved and a lot of 2016's polling issues have been accounted for..however I think the specific enthusiasm, shy Trump support and folk who appreciate law and order are new issues which will not be accounted for in 2020 polling. At a guess I think this could be worth about a 4% shift on the polls and as such I see Trump taking it narrowly at 285 to 253
Of course I'm hoping like hell for a more convincing win than even last time, including the popular vote, as I see that as being the only way this rising radicalism in the states can be addressed.
If I'm wrong and the Dem's take it out as expected then I think we can all agree its certainly been a fascinating 4 years on the Trump train.
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Even though I picked PA to underestimate Trump in the other thread the RCP polling average there @Rembrandt is trash. Absolutely it's nudging back Trumps' way but the magnitude of the shift is overstated by flooding of polls by the usual suspects to achieve that very result.
That RCP average is five polls, two of which are Trafalgar and Rasmussen. So they are using polls who state they account for the shy Trump factor to begin with.
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@Rembrandt Mate in all seriousness I think you should consider getting some help. You are that far down the rabbit hole that it is a real worry. You're clearly a nice guy who doesn't talk over differing opinions, but I think you need to step back a take a look at where you've got to.
I think I'm correct in thinking you're from NZ but live in Australia. Why the obsession with the US? With politics and events that really have little bearing on your life?
Do you have family there? Do you have any hats in support of a NZ political leader? Or Australian? Why the obsession?
You think you can't trust the media, and in some ways that is fair enough, but then you are prepared to trust stuff which deserves it even less. You're prepared to take what are effectively propaganda anecdotes, and use these to draw massive conclusions because they're in support of the clickbait articles that your previous choices have sucked you into, which purport to give some sort of secret knowledge outside of the mainstream media - where everything against your established view is 'narrative'. It is classic conspiracy theorist behaviour.
I get that the extremist ways of thinking on the far left are mad, as are the right. But how much of that actually impacts your life, in real life? I would assume, like the rest of us, the answer to that is fuck all. It's very easy to watch a bit of youtube and draw a false conclusion 'OMG this is happening in America'. Even if it is raw footage, America is a big place and you can't draw conclusions like that. It's like how after Once Were Warriors came out a heap of Seppos thought that was how NZ was, from a bite-sized piece of fiction: Presentation is everything, and from afar you are getting a tiny piece of the picture, which in today's world is deliberately tailored via data collection to confirm the rabbit hole you've gone down, to keep you clicking, and to keep the advertising in front of you. Reference also that Fox piece on our 'scary response' to Covid, our 'Quarantine Camps' - all but calling our government fascist, despite just being elected in a landslide, and literally nobody in NZ having that actual experience. There will be people in the US right now who are down that rabbit hole, and who believe that, and who will be going 'OMG this is happening in NZ'. -
I think Biden is the favourite, and my prediction to win, but the US system makes it harder to predict. There's also a lot more legal chicanery available than here - for example, it's legal on the face of it for a state to legislate who their electors will vote for and ignore the result of the vote. I'm not expecting to see that actually happen, but it's not a total impossibility either.
Another factor at play is the undecided responses - most polls these days exclude that because they assume that they won't vote at all based on previous experience, but if a lot of those undecideds do vote and are heavily pro Trump, that would swing the election in Trump's favour.
That's the primary reason why predictions are a percentage chance of a particular result - to attempt to account for undecideds voting at all, and mostly voting for one candidate (rather than being distributed along the same lines as the polls). A secondary reason is the possibility that some of the responses change their minds and votes between when the poll is taken and election day.
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Listening to the final 538 podcast before the election on the way to work this morning, they pretty much refuted the shy Trumper theory.
They proposed that the 2016 result was more different than most pollsters as the large undecided voter pool (12.5%) swung to Trump following Comey's email investigation announcement.
This year the undecided voters are estimated to be only 4.3%, and less likely to all swing to one candidate
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@reprobate I liked your post on a general level.
Without getting involved in a critique of @Rembrandt , I can say that I find it useful to step back every now and then and remind myself that I am simply a sideline commentator.
It is very easy (and I put my hand up as a culprit here) to get dragged into justifying your pov with an argument that starts to blinker you.
This is the very thing that many of us complain about, with the increasing divisions of thought and entrenched positions.
It is important to reset and try and look at the other view every now and then. -
@reprobate Seriously? Christ mate it's a US politics discussion thread on a NZ rugby forum...you known kinda where people discuss US politics...oh but thanks for your concern buddy, really sure you mean that, almost brings a tear to my eye that a bloke somewhere in the world is going that extra mile to try and reach out and help a fellow human being in such a time of need. Such a selfless act which I'm sure the sycophants will lap up with glee
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@Stockcar86 Trump generates such a powerful response either way, and Biden is such an uninspiring candidate, I still think the question is will the people be happy with another 4 years or do they simply want him out. I expect the voter turnout to be much higher this time, which may be bad news for Trump but who really knows
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@Crucial said in US Politics:
@reprobate I liked your post on a general level.
Without getting involved in a critique of @Rembrandt , I can say that I find it useful to step back every now and then and remind myself that I am simply a sideline commentator.
It is very easy (and I put my hand up as a culprit here) to get dragged into justifying your pov with an argument that starts to blinker you.
This is the very thing that many of us complain about, with the increasing divisions of thought and entrenched positions.
It is important to reset and try and look at the other view every now and then.A lot of the time the thread is a Trump echo chamber, with all this evidence that Biden has done this and his son has done that and that Trump can do no wrong. There is not a lot of consideration of the flaws of both men, which I guess is something that US politics seems to bring out as much as any. As the national guard and business owners prepare for riots or unrest regardless of the result, I suppose that is representative of what is going on in the US itself. Only a decisive victory will stand a chance to keep a lid on the madness. If it's close they might want to buckle up because the next few weeks could get very rocky
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It's a concern..what is he going to be like in a year or two?
https://streamable.com/gjfik0 -
@canefan said in US Politics:
A lot of the time the thread is a Trump echo chamber
There's plenty of anti Trump comments in this thread. It's probably the majority over recent weeks. So definitely not an echo chamber.
I would say there are a handful of pro/anti Trump posters who seem very emotionally invested and lack nuance and self awareness. Certainly not exclusive to one side -
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
A lot of the time the thread is a Trump echo chamber
There's plenty of anti Trump comments in this thread. It's probably the majority over recent weeks. So definitely not an echo chamber.
I would say there are a handful of pro/anti Trump posters who seem very emotionally invested and lack nuance and self awareness. Certainly not exclusive to one sideThis is true and I think encapsulates how polarising Trump is. There are not many pro-Biden posts. It really is all about Trump.
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@canefan said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@reprobate I liked your post on a general level.
Without getting involved in a critique of @Rembrandt , I can say that I find it useful to step back every now and then and remind myself that I am simply a sideline commentator.
It is very easy (and I put my hand up as a culprit here) to get dragged into justifying your pov with an argument that starts to blinker you.
This is the very thing that many of us complain about, with the increasing divisions of thought and entrenched positions.
It is important to reset and try and look at the other view every now and then.A lot of the time the thread is a Trump echo chamber, with all this evidence that Biden has done this and his son has done that and that Trump can do no wrong. There is not a lot of consideration of the flaws of both men, which I guess is something that US politics seems to bring out as much as any. As the national guard and business owners prepare for riots or unrest regardless of the result, I suppose that is representative of what is going on in the US itself. Only a decisive victory will stand a chance to keep a lid on the madness. If it's close they might want to buckle up because the next few weeks could get very rocky
Irrespective of your political slant or whether you can ignore Trumps ‘style” because you agree with the general direction I don’t think you can get away from the point that under his Presidency the country has widened and firmed divisions, riots and discontent have started and a major health crisis has been handled poorly with many deaths.
You can point fingers elsewhere, call out the “other side” for hypocrisy and try and justify all you want but the final responsibility for leadership falls at his feet and he has displayed his qualities or lack of.
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I haven't ventured into this thread in awhile, so my apologies that I'm not going to try to catch up.
I just got home from voting. It's amazing to see the voter turnout, especially given how many early voted. In the county where my parents live, over 20% of registered voters had already voted as of last week. And yet my mom says the polling place she she works is the busiest it's ever been. I'm seeing reports on social of long lines in other rural areas, in places where you never wait.
In these areas, 90% of the votes are going to Trump. There's so much rabid support for him, it's mystifying. But anyway, if it's indicative of the passion of Trump supporters everywhere, I think he's going to win again.
In contrast, there is zero passion for Biden, even among those I know who are voting for him. (And the vast majority wouldn't know Kamala Harris if they met her in the street. She's a non-entity for independent and swing voters.) Admittedly, I live in a very "red" area, but it's not an exaggeration to say that I've seen 1,000 Trump signs for every one for Biden. Even in yards with signs for BLM, or LGBT, or union support, there is almost no visible support for Biden. I think it's really telling.
If Biden wins, it won't be because of anything he has done. It will be solely because he's not Trump. It's insane. I've never seen anyone inspire so much love and hate.
People have lost their damned minds. Is this an important election? Sure, they ALL are. But Trump can't single-handedly destroy democracy any more than Biden can single-handedly take away our personal liberties. People need to chill the fuck out.
US Politics