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@Paekakboyz said in US Politics:
hostile behaviour from Trump supporters.
Where did you read this? The large Trump rallies have been very peaceful. Groups that have been violent have nothing to do with Trump supporters
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Biden's range looking like it could be anywhere from low 270s to 340.
If Trump loses Florida he loses.
PA has dropped into the danger zone for Biden but even if Trump gets PA, OH, FL and TX I think he still needs another 30 EC votes from somewhere. That would mean all of MN, MH and WI as well.
It's a path for sure but a bit like picking the first 10 finishers at the Cup. Getting likely that one won't make it
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Without being in PA there is no way to know the mood but I do feel like fracking has been a much bigger issue since the third debate and it's entirely possible that Biden's visible ambivalence on the issue is enough to see that state stay in the Trump column. Maybe this won't be the case and I just have recency bias from the last Australian election where no one outside rural Queensland picked up just how visceral the reaction was on Adani and the convoy. People are saying Biden hasn't made a gaff, but to me this totally was for such an important state.
If PA goes Trump (or is held up) it is a lolly scramble from there.
I'll guess it's contested hinging on PA and I don't know what to believe about postal and prepoll voting in that state anymore.
edit: and I'll give an decent chance to Trump dropping Texas. It hasn't been a focus for him from what I can see it is just one of those states that "has to come in" if he is to win - but I can see a scenario where he can run the table on PA, FL, AZ etc but then blows it by losing Texas. Texas is a different beast to the rest of the south in some ways IMO.
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@Crucial said in US Politics:
Biden's range looking like it could be anywhere from low 270s to 340.
If Trump loses Florida he loses.
PA has dropped into the danger zone for Biden but even if Trump gets PA, OH, FL and TX I think he still needs another 30 EC votes from somewhere. That would mean all of MN, MH and WI as well.
Arizona does it (assuming Iowa goes Trump which looks safe).
A lot of these are in pairs or regions too. If Florida surprises to the upside for Trump, Arizona may too with similar demographics same with the rustbelt TX and GA etc.
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@Duluth said in US Politics - election predictions:
@nzzp said in US Politics - election predictions:
this thread is solely for predictions
Please follow this
Don't want multiple generic threads on this crap
Not many predictions in this thread. People scared to stick their neck out?
I'm fully expecting to be wrong, but I am interested in getting some posters on record with predictions so we can all laugh about it in a few days
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@nzzp said in US Politics - election predictions:
Not many predictions in this thread. People scared to stick their neck out?
Or people don't know. I don't
The polls point in one direction. However turnout is difficult to model for a few reasons (covid, more early voting, enthusiasm both pro and anti is only about one candidate)
The behaviour of some people who should have a good idea suggests internal polling might be closer -
@rotated Looking at https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit-2020-presidential-election-odds PA is the battleground bellwether State that if it doesn't fall Democrat as predicted (avg polls slightly leaning) then one could conceivably be concerned about the others.
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Am hedging my bets slightly. I think Biden will probably win it based on;
- The pollsters hopefully having learnt some lessons since 2016
- Socially desirable responses about [not] voting for Trump (presumably...) being a smaller effect than four years ago.
Either way I expect several weeks of chaos.
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@Donsteppa I don't know how pollsters could account for the shy voter. Either way, if Biden wins by one or a landslide, the nutbags will have a conspiracy theory to account for it.
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@antipodean said in US Politics - election predictions:
@Donsteppa I don't know how pollsters could account for the shy voter. Either way, if Biden wins by one or a landslide, the nutbags will have a conspiracy theory to account for it.
I'v never dug into it much beyond Wikipedia and a marketing paper 20 years ago, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor is interesting on the face of it.
Post 1992:
The report found that 2% of the 8.5% error could be explained by Conservative supporters refusing to disclose their voting intentions; it cited as evidence the fact that exit polls on election day also underestimated the Conservative lead.
After the 1992 election, most opinion pollsters altered their methodology to try to correct for this observed behaviour of the electorate.[1] The methods varied for different companies. Some, including Populus, YouGov and ICM Research, have adopted the tactic of asking their interviewees how they had voted at the previous election, and then assumed that they would vote that way again at a discounted rate.[2] Others weighted their panel so that their past vote was exactly in line with the actual result of the election. For a time, opinion poll results were published both for unadjusted and adjusted methods. Polling companies have found that telephone and personal interviews are more likely to generate a shy response than automated calling or internet polls
... until they again got it badly wrong in 2015
The British Polling Council subsequently launched an independent enquiry into how polls were so wrong amid widespread criticism that polls are no longer a trustworthy avenue of measuring voting intentions.[6][7] This enquiry found that, contrary to the popular reporting, there was no Shy Tory Factor in the election, and the polling had been incorrect for other reasons, most importantly unrepresentative samples.[8]
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@nzzp said in US Politics:
I'm fully expecting to be wrong, but I am interested in getting some posters on record with predictions so we can all laugh about it in a few days
I heartily second that.
I have looked at the polls.
Carefully taken on-board the advice of this forum of people who know more about statistics than me.Economist.
96% chance of Biden winning electoral college.
Nate Silver 538
Biden wins in 89 of 100 scenarios they run.
All network polling saying Biden will win (including Fox)
So, based on careful thought (as I did in 2016)
I'll say that it is all bullshit and Trump will win. -
So whats happening with the laptop stuff? Surely that cast iron evidence was the final nail for biden? Or has it gone by the wayside this close to the election?
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@Paekakboyz said in US Politics:
So whats happening with the laptop stuff? Surely that cast iron evidence was the final nail for biden? Or has it gone by the wayside this close to the election?
FBI still has an active money laundering case. It’s been going for almost a year. It’s clearly a valid story, it’ll probably get reported in better in a few days regardless of the election result. The Greenwald article was a reasonable summary if you are interested.
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@Winger https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/02/trump-biden-supporters-campaign-bus
Not at Trump rallies but democrat campaigners enroute. Quite a number of other sources reporting on it.
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Righto my election prediction.
So this is how it sits according to latest polling. 319 Biden to 219 Trump, though a large number are 'technically' toss-ups.
Not pretty viewing and although betting odds are narrowing it doesn't look good for Trump.
The polls are surely more accurate than last time, a lot of reputations got tarnished after 2016 so I can't see the same mistakes being made and I don't buy the idea that polling is intentionally being skewed to dissuade Trump voters (If anything I'd have thought that would energise a base). On top of that Corona has removed Trumps "It's the economy stupid" argument and unlike 2016 msm and social media has gone pretty much all-in on censorship of anything anti-Biden. I find it funny showing supposedly 'politically informed' folk Biden gaff clips that they had absolutely no idea about, let alone the mind-boggling content of crackhead son's laptop.
Having said all that, I still have hope. Trump supporter enthusiasm is off the charts, huge rallies, convoys, regattas. Look up on youtube to find amateur artists writing songs and raps for Trump where there is no real equivalent for Biden. My feeling is those polled who support Trump will vote while those who support just may not, the only enthusiasm is really to be against the Orange Man.
In 2016 we were told he was 'literally Hitler'...and well after 4 years and still no concentrations camps, an increasing support amongst minorities, recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the development of the #blexit & #walkaway movements, a string of peace deals (Bahrain/Israel, Israel/UAE, Serbia/Kosovo, Israel/Sudan), no additional major military conflicts (how long since a president who managed that?)...well where can the anti-Trump argument go? Sure you can hit him with Corona handling, though surely some responsibility lies with state representatives..and of course public gaffs and tweets..but it doesn't really measure up to "Trust us, he is Hitler, electing him will be a crime against humanity!".
Of course the side effect of the extremist anti-Trump narrative pushed by mainstream outlets had the side effect of painting anyone who was either supportive of or even neutral to Trump as being racists/nazis/facists/-insertword-phobic and as such it is your civic duty to berate, dox, assault and do everything in your power to have their means of employment and supporting their family removed. I have a MAGA hat but even in a city on the other side of the world I can nearly guarantee if I was to wear it in public I would be attacked. Has there been any other US president where showing support will likely get you attacked in public in a foreign western country? Hell I had a family member of my partner frothing at the mouth about how Trump and his family need to be murdered for the sake of humanity at a family skype dinner the other day, this from a medical specialist with his own practice. The brainwashing at work to create such a visceral reaction from a respected medical professional is incredible as it is terrifying. I can only imagine this being significantly worse in democrat strongholds & toss-up states and its from this I see the shy Trump support. If anyone asks you say you are voting Democrat because failure to do so could very likely result in significant pain to you or your family.
Finally as cities around the US are busy boarding up their windows for expected violence during election night, you can bet it isn't Trump supporters they are worried about. The twin marxist movements of Antifa and BLM have really made their mark this year, fighting for racial justice and against the evils of capitalism through assault, vandalism, arson and murder. It took Biden until August to condemn the violence with Democrats appearing to openly encourage it until polling started to show that it might not be the vote winner they thought it was. Most recently this occurred in Pennsylvania which is shaping up to be a very key battleground state, this looked to be safely in Biden's hands until a couple weeks ago..
So in conclusion my prediction is that the polling has improved and a lot of 2016's polling issues have been accounted for..however I think the specific enthusiasm, shy Trump support and folk who appreciate law and order are new issues which will not be accounted for in 2020 polling. At a guess I think this could be worth about a 4% shift on the polls and as such I see Trump taking it narrowly at 285 to 253
Of course I'm hoping like hell for a more convincing win than even last time, including the popular vote, as I see that as being the only way this rising radicalism in the states can be addressed.
If I'm wrong and the Dem's take it out as expected then I think we can all agree its certainly been a fascinating 4 years on the Trump train.
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