Refuge for the positive.....
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Soooooo over the naysayers and doomdayers of NZ rugby.
We got soundly beaten last night, due to some ill discipline. The thing about ill discipline is that can become a habit.. but like all habits it can be broken.
For the last few decades any NZ rugby fan with any sort of brain knows that during world cup years, we are repeatedly told that the world cup is all that matters, and that is mostly correct, I see enough talent an experience in this AB team to not be concerned. I am exactly the same amount of nervous about the WC as I would be we had won easily last night.
SA are a danger, but SA have always been a danger, but if, and it likely we will as we have better players, we beat them in the opening game, we are destined for a QF against Scotland, and that is a good QF to have. If we win that, and it likely we will as we have better players, then we are TWO games from world champions, and anyone who thinks this AB team isnt capable and indeed likely to beat any other side, is kidding themselves.
I have actually seen some really good signs over the last couple of weeks, just more crap, but I am confident the crap will be eliminated. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback that is a very rational viewpoint Baron. The basis is there, we just aren't putting it all together. Yet.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback Excellent post.
With the exception of South Africa and Wales, I don't see other nations having as good players as New Zealand and certainly not better.
But several other nations seem to have found game plans that maximise their strengths and can produce under pressure. Ireland did this against us last year and Australia yesterday. Last time the All Blacks delivered that was in Cardiff in November 2017 against Wales.
All of the All Blacks problems are fixable, especially so if there was the right leadership. Which is why performances like last night's are so frustrating.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Refuge for the positive.....:
SA are a danger, but SA have always been a danger, but if, and it likely we will as we have better players, we beat them in the opening game, we are destined for a QF against Scotland, and that is a good QF to have. If we win that, and it likely we will as we have better players, then we are TWO games from world champions, and anyone who thinks this AB team isnt capable and indeed likely to beat any other side, is kidding themselves.
This first part overlooks just how badly they've been playing for so long and their repeated inability to summon a good performance when they identify a fixture ahead of time as a big game (Lions, England, Ireland, this week).
But the second part does get overlooked - Ireland, England or Wales still have to not trip over themselves like they have almost every other tournament and Australia or South Africa who I'd argue have less of a mental block with the ABs and the RWC have to not get tipped up en route to a final as well.
Still, it's going to be a different tournament, in the past three possibly four RWCs we've gone into it thinking if the ABs just play their A game they can't be bowled. I'm not so sure they have the highest ceiling any more and we haven't seen their A game since 2017 so its a moot point anyway. Sure they can still win, but it's going to be South Africa 2007 where everyone else falls over and we don't.
Like @KiwiMurph said - Bledisloe first, worry about the RWC after that.
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@NTA said in Refuge for the positive.....:
I expect the rockets from the coaching staff, along with the grim refusal to lose at Eden Park, will see a very different effort from the ABs next week.
I expect us to win well, regardless of who we pick, partially for that reason. But also because I expect the Aussie pack will struggle to hit the same standards two weeks in a row.
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Refuge for the positive.....:
anyone who thinks this AB team isnt capable and indeed likely to beat any other side, is kidding themselves.
We are still favourites against any side. However are our selections closing the gap for other sides?
There is no evidence that Test rugby is loosening in the last couple of years. In fact, direct packs with strong defences that choke sides are getting rewarded.
It's seems like we are trying to play likes it's the last 20mins.. This is when our (usually) superior reserves blow people away and we finish with two play makers and add some mobility to the pack.
I do not see any evidence that this works from minute one.Can we still win doing this? Yes, but we rely more on individual brilliance and the chances of upsets goes up
I do agree that there are some easy fixes though
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I definitely think they can murder any side if they click, but the tactics and execution are badly lacking. Other sides have figured us out and are just holding onto the pill. Shocking discipline also doesn't help. The cattle are there, but FFS my kingdom for even 60 minutes of decent footy from them.
Looking at the game yesterday, ALB should have held that ball. He does, try time. SB doesn't get sent, we win pretty easily imho.That obviously doesn't hide some glaring deficiencies, but it's not the disaster some are making it out to be. Same thing probably would have happened in the lost test in 2015 if we'd had 14 men for an entire half.
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One of the strange things is people are acting like because we are not red-hot favourites for the World Cup we can't win it. If we used that logic, no-one could win the cup. Welcome to the majority of sporting competitions. Most of them are meant to be close. We are in with a chance - as much of a chance as any other.
It's bloody hilarious reading actual analysis from people saying "Mounga isn't international standard" or saying the same thing about Scott Barrett. Mounga is better than most starting tens for 6N/RC teams. The best one was that, Hansen is a shit coach and just inherited the success from Henry. Yeah, right. If Hansen was a shit coach, it wouldn't take 8 years to find out.
Having said all of this, last night was a disaster. We need to have a big re-think but I still back Hansen to do it. Let's not forget we are trying to win the toughest rugby competition three times in a row. It's a tough ask in any sport. Even if Hansen gets the tactics and selections right someone might get red carded in the first minute and none of it will matter.
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My car once had a fault. It was a tiny little thing, but very hard to pin down, and it took quite a few trips to the mechanic before it was finally sorted.
Someone looking at the car would have gone --it's a perfectly good car, all the necessary bits are there. It just wouldn't start some mornings.
Eventually, once sorted, it went back to being a really good car. The key there is "once sorted".
Oh, and I had to take it to a second mechanic to find the problem.
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Screw it, I'll post it here, as this is just a one eyed optimistic view of the world. I don't think this is entirely accurate, but I'm throwing it out there.
Steve Hansen is the genius we need. He's keeping our powder so dry that when we unleash our tactics at the RWC, no-one will expect them.
Think about it - how do yo uplan to beat the ABs. Aside from just playing a tremendous physical game, kicking your goals, hoping for some opportunistic tries or a card or two ... what's our game plan? WE DON'T HAVE ONE. That's the goddamn genius of it; no one knows what's coming.
Rush defences get beaten by hard physical running near the ruck, and a dominant pack of forwards just rolling forward pick and go, pick and go. Fark it, I don't care if we do that for 80 minutes three times in a row; winning is winning.
So there you have it. He's playing 4D chess while we're playing checkers. We're just going to pull one out of the bag and win the Cup again.
Also, I don't feel particularly better having tried to write this down... not convinced at all that we can change it up when needed any more. Going to be a cracking cup though, going in with low expectations and any success is on the upside.
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Oz played well and despite some performances of late are still a 1st tier side. We were a man down for an entire half, no team can win against a top tier team under those conditions. The score blew out because unlike some other teams we thought we'd give it a crack anyway.
The real test is this weekend. Are oz the real deal? Are the AB's a spent force?
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@nzzp said in Refuge for the positive.....:
Screw it, I'll post it here, as this is just a one eyed optimistic view of the world. I don't think this is entirely accurate, but I'm throwing it out there.
Steve Hansen is the genius we need. He's keeping our powder so dry that when we unleash our tactics at the RWC, no-one will expect them.
Think about it - how do yo uplan to beat the ABs. Aside from just playing a tremendous physical game, kicking your goals, hoping for some opportunistic tries or a card or two ... what's our game plan? WE DON'T HAVE ONE. That's the goddamn genius of it; no one knows what's coming.
Rush defences get beaten by hard physical running near the ruck, and a dominant pack of forwards just rolling forward pick and go, pick and go. Fark it, I don't care if we do that for 80 minutes three times in a row; winning is winning.
So there you have it. He's playing 4D chess while we're playing checkers. We're just going to pull one out of the bag and win the Cup again.
Also, I don't feel particularly better having tried to write this down... not convinced at all that we can change it up when needed any more. Going to be a cracking cup though, going in with low expectations and any success is on the upside.
^^^ Hey Fern, I’ll have what he’s having. ^^^
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The positive I will take from this result is that I have been so bored with Rugby Championship and Bled for the past few years.
It's nice to see Aussie and South Africa really competitive again.
It will be nice to be nervous with anticipation this weekend. I haven't looked forward to a game against Aussie in years and I can't wait for the team naming and the game!
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@Hooroo said in Refuge for the positive.....:
The positive I will take from this result is that I have been so bored with Rugby Championship and Bled for the past few years.
It's nice to see Aussie and South Africa really competitive again.
It will be nice to be nervous with anticipation this weekend. I haven't looked forward to a game against Aussie in years and I can't wait for the team naming and the game!
That is indeed a positive. As long as it's them improving, not us going back to the pack.
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The way we don't compete for possession at the breakdown, and then the way we are so frivolous with possession when we do have it drives me crazy.
The positive ..... last few years - is that often the teams dominating possession lose. E.g. When the boot is on the other foot (V SAF in Wellington last year, Lions 2nd and 3rd test IIRC, and any Auckland Blues game ....) the team 'playing all the rugby' loses and the team defending wins.
I don't like this trend, though .....
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@Kirwan said in Refuge for the positive.....:
That is indeed a positive. As long as it's them improving, not us going back to the pack.
Their first 40 at the weekend suggested that both were happening - we were good defensively, but they played really really well. Will be such an open RWC, with 6 teams with a good chance, and another couple as outsiders (france, argentina)
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@nzzp said in Refuge for the positive.....:
@Kirwan said in Refuge for the positive.....:
That is indeed a positive. As long as it's them improving, not us going back to the pack.
Their first 40 at the weekend suggested that both were happening - we were good defensively, but they played really really well. Will be such an open RWC, with 6 teams with a good chance, and another couple as outsiders (france, argentina)
Were we good defensively? I thought the missed tackles started then, and I remember Hodge going right through us.
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@Kirwan said in Refuge for the positive.....:
@nzzp said in Refuge for the positive.....:
@Kirwan said in Refuge for the positive.....:
That is indeed a positive. As long as it's them improving, not us going back to the pack.
Their first 40 at the weekend suggested that both were happening - we were good defensively, but they played really really well. Will be such an open RWC, with 6 teams with a good chance, and another couple as outsiders (france, argentina)
Were we good defensively? I thought the missed tackles started then, and I remember Hodge going right through us.
I guess I'd say good considering
Given how many tackles we slipped off, and how they were running, going into the last minute only conceding 13 points was pretty good!
