Picking the ABs to lose ...
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Shamelessly borrowed from Radio Sport Breakfast (to which I listened in the gym this morning ... https://www.radiosport.co.nz/on-demand/week-on-demand/ ).
When was the last time you genuinely picked the All Blacks to lose?
Not ...
... I had a feeling it would be tight ...Not ...
... I'm a pessimist so always pick against the All Blacks .. stopped clock and all ...But genuinely picked/predicted/believed the All Blacks would lose.
For me, in all honesty it was 1990. First test v France on tour ... and to be honest it may have extended to 2nd test.
We'd been shit on tour and lost to a couple of "French Selections".
Was convinced our lineout was shit ...
Playing at Nantes ... oh god ... Nantes ... who remembers 1986?
Fuck we've lost already ...
I was wrong! We killed it. 24-3. (And 30-12 second test.)
I genuinely think that is the ONLY time I really thought the ABs would not win. (I was even convinced the Baby Blacks would win in '86.)
Pricks have let me down 52 and 6 half times times since then ... (out of 327 starts ... ) .
When did you last genuinely believe the ABs would lose?
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I have had doubts over many games in the past, but could I say actually genuinely thought we would lose ... diff ball game.
Racking my brain, I believe the 2004 tri nations, return match against SA in SA. We'd been shit at home, against them, barely won and lost the try count 3-1. Time before that was probably the only true Nostradamus prediction of my life was the 2003 semi, where I genuinely thought Australia would win.
Since then, nothing, and not this weekend either. I thought we would lose to England more than lose to Ireland. Hope I'm right.
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@majorrage said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
I have had doubts over many games in the past, but could I say actually genuinely thought we would lose ... diff ball game.
Racking my brain, I believe the 2004 tri nations, return match against SA in SA. We'd been shit at home, against them, barely won and lost the try count 3-1. Time before that was probably the only true Nostradamus prediction of my life was the 2003 semi, where I genuinely thought Australia would win.
Since then, nothing, and not this weekend either. I thought we would lose to England more than lose to Ireland. Hope I'm right.
That same 2004 game in SA for me, and the 3rd SA game in 2009. We just couldn't beat them that year under the rules at the time.
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@frank said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
2009 playing the Boks in SA when they had Matfield and Botha.
Yeah I felt the same after the first test in SA - was convinced we'd lose the second test, but would win the third test in Hamilton (was wrong big time on that one).
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2011 game against Boks in SA with B team or at least unsettled line up. Would have been a finest moment if they'd pulled that off.
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That sickening feeling when you break out in cold sweat and feel like the world is caving in around you. World wars, natural disasters, Phil Kearns commentary - have got nothing on this gut wrenching anguish of feeling like the ABs will lose.
Only recall one ever occasion - half time against France in 2007. I don’t know why and had never before felt like this, but it overcame me as I saw those grey jerseys emerge from the break.
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I had a sinking feeling about the 2003 World Cup knock outs. Too many of our best players were left at home, Spencer had all the skills but didn't lead the backline, the lineout was fragile at the time, lack of professionalism about the set up, the ABs were less well led and less well coached back then.
My God, Ted, Shag, Tana, the GOAT and Reado have made a big difference.
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1986 against Wallabies when our best were suspended for Cavalier excursions.
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Only two, both against the Boks.
The 2011 B team vs South Africa at Port Elizabeth rancid mentioned. No Carter, no McCaw, no Read, no Nonu, no Carter... just too many security blankets missing. while simultaneously trying to continue blooding Slade and help Cowan rediscover form (he never did). Still probably could have won the fixture with a bit of luck too.
It's cheating somewhat but I thought there was absolutely no chance for us in the 3rd/4th playoff in 1999. The team was just too mentally shot and South Africa's appetite for beating the ABs had not been quenched since readmission.
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@sparky said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
I had a sinking feeling about the 2003 World Cup knock outs. Too many of our best players were left at home, Spencer had all the skills but didn't lead the backline, the lineout was fragile at the time, lack of professionalism about the set up, the ABs were less well led and less well coached back then.
Really? I felt shit scared early in the second half of that Welsh game, but that was the only moment that season between the Blues and Crusaders dominating Super Rugby to the moment Mortlock took that intercept I had even an iota of doubt. We had toweled SA a week prior, while Aussie looked average against the Scots. Just a few months earlier we had put 50 on them in the same building and won back the Bledisloe finally - so the thought of Aussie winning just wasn't on my radar.
Certainly wouldn't have been anywhere near as confident in a final against England for obvious reasons.
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Never....but then I always expect Northland to be able win too, so that kinda sums up my mental state.
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@rotated Those scorelines from the RC in 2003 massively flattered the ABs. The team seemed to lack experience without Merts, Umaga, Anton Oliver, Cullen or Lomu.
I honestly thought the AB's would lose the Quarter Final against South Africa. Fitzy said before the Semi Final that he wouldn't have picked a single Wallaby for a joint team, that is not how I felt. I was worried before the semi that Eddie Jones had a cunning plan. Really felt that ABs team looked undercooked.
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@sparky said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
@rotated Those scorelines from the RC in 2003 massively flattered the ABs. The team seemed to lack experience without Merts, Umaga, Anton Oliver, Cullen or Lomu.
I honestly thought the AB's would lose the Quarter Final against South Africa. Fitzy said before the Semi Final that he wouldn't have picked a single Wallaby for a joint team, that is not how I felt. I was worried before the semi that Eddie Jones had a cunning plan. Really felt that ABs team looked undercooked.
Fitzy though MacDonald was better than Mortlock? Marshall better than Gregan? Thorne better than Smith?
Jeepers
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Believe it or not, I was a bit worried when we were 29-13 up at 1/2 time against France in the 2015 quarter finals. The horrible, grey, sweaty feeling I experienced at the Millennium Stadium in 2007 started to seep back in
Funnily enough, I knew we were going to win the World Cup when Carter dropped a goal against the Boks a week later.
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I picked us to lose the following games:
v South Africa in Wellington this year
v Australia in Brisbane last year
v the Lions in Wellington last year
v Ireland in Chicago in 2016
v Australia in Sydney in 2015
v South Africa in Johannesburg in 2014
v England at Twickenham in 2012.I also predicted we'd draw with the Lions in the final test of last year's series and against Australia in Sydney in 2014.
What can I say - I know my footy. Naturally, I kept all these predictions offline . . .
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Almost never...although the 2011 semi stands out, years of failed world cups, losing Carter then Slade. I think I was just running on hope for that one, thought it might have been another chapter in humiliating All Blacks world cup failures. Very nice to be wrong. Hoodoo broken.
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@act-crusader said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
half time against France in 2007. I don’t know why and had never before felt like this, but it overcame me as I saw those grey jerseys emerge from the break.
This. I said to wife while we looking around the stadium at half time that "we are going to lose this". She actually believed me for once. The whole thing felt wrong, especially the way Barnes was (n't) reffing. Having been at Twickenham in '99 didn't help the sense of foreboding either.
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@smudge said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
I picked us to lose the following games:
v South Africa in Wellington this year
v Australia in Brisbane last year
v the Lions in Wellington last year
v Ireland in Chicago in 2016
v Australia in Sydney in 2015
v South Africa in Johannesburg in 2014
v England at Twickenham in 2012.I also predicted we'd draw with the Lions in the final test of last year's series and against Australia in Sydney in 2014.
What can I say - I know my footy. Naturally, I kept all these predictions offline . . .
I'm assuming in 99 you just told a bunch of blokes at Uni ?
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@donsteppa said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
watching the AB's from behind our goaline...
You didn't take a sofa to hide behind?
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@snowy said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
@donsteppa said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
watching the AB's from behind our goaline...
You didn't take a sofa to hide behind?
Bloody Red Badge security.
I remember a strong panicky/despairing thought that we would need to give up on rugby altogether if we couldn't win this one.
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yea, before a game? I honestly can't remember being convinced we would lose (the closest would be when i bet on the Frogs to beat us at about $7.50 and it fucking happened) before the game kicked off. We always win.
Even in that period of 98-2003 where we lost a bit more, i could always come up with a reason as to why this game would be different.
But, that sinking feeling early in the 2nd half where the reality that we are in a power of shit starts to sink in. I know that well. But even that these days is tempered by the fact we are nearly never out of the game, and i still expect us to score in the 79th minute to win it.
Threads like this illustrate exactly why fans of other countries fucking hate us.
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@donsteppa said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
Not before the game, but the 60th minute of the RWC final in 2011 saw the deepest depths of sporting despair began to sink in watching the AB's from behind our goaline... never been so relieved to be wrong!
This
At half time I told my partner that I would not be good to be around if we lost. Then from about the moment Beaver came on I was convinced we were going to lose. I think I kept up a constant deathly commentary on just how fucked we were. There was a Pom sitting behind me and he started trying to cheer me up. I wanted to kill the stupid fucker - did he not realise this was life and death?
Other than that I can't recall being convinced we were going to lose even at times when we were clearly outclassed like 71 and 98 I clung on to the hope team changes would bring about a miracle like an alkie clings to his first glass of the day.
Lots of - we could lose this - but no we are fucking going to lose moments.
It's karmic balancing of the books given that I also support the Black Caps Harbour and Fulham.
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@mariner4life said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
yea, before a game? I honestly can't remember being convinced we would lose (the closest would be when i bet on the Frogs to beat us at about $7.50 and it fucking happened) before the game kicked off. We always win.
I remember you saying before the game you had put on an emotional hedge bet and thinking what a right fluffybunny.
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@jk said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
When we played Ireland in the US.
Yeah. We went into a match on a field that we all know is really too narrow for a rugby ground and don't have our 2 world class locks . Then we play a flanker at lock and fuck our lineout up completely. No chance for quick throw ins as the ball is always in the stands / touched by someone. That whole exercise was poorly thought out against a top side that we only just escaped against previously.
We lost the HK match against OZ. Quade was a dickhead (didn't really need the last bit of that) after the terrible Donald kick when they scored last minute. We won the Tokyo one. Was at both of those and knew we were going to lose when Donald came on in HK. He has redeemed himself since of course.
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@dogmeat said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
@donsteppa said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
Not before the game, but the 60th minute of the RWC final in 2011 saw the deepest depths of sporting despair began to sink in watching the AB's from behind our goaline... never been so relieved to be wrong!
This
At half time I told my partner that I would not be good to be around if we lost. Then from about the moment Beaver came on I was convinced we were going to lose.
I'd been pretty critical of Donald & Ellis from about 2009, or more specifically the selectors perseverance with each of them - so at half time at Eden Park when it finally dawned on me that the last 4 years came down to those two I was concerned... but weirdly confident.
Maybe it was the strength of the SF performance, or because France had lost to Tonga and were a rabble or maybe because the first try came so easily - but I was still confident things would open up in the second half like they had in 2004 and 2009 and the French would fade.
By about the 65th minute once it dawned on me that wouldn't happen the sphincter tightened somewhat, although the only real worry was a near break stuffed by a great 1 on 1 tackle by Conrad Smith. Credit to Joubert I guess that I didn't have the impending feeling of an inevitable penalty.
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@dogmeat said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
@mariner4life said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
yea, before a game? I honestly can't remember being convinced we would lose (the closest would be when i bet on the Frogs to beat us at about $7.50 and it fucking happened) before the game kicked off. We always win.
I remember you saying before the game you had put on an emotional hedge bet and thinking what a right fluffybunny.
i just remember looking at our team, realising it's the fucking French (it's always the fucking French) and thinking "those odds are outrageous".
I felt dirty collecting. Sort of.
The 2011 final was a funny one. I rocked up thinking how shit the French had been all tournament, and they had played their final. And nothing at the start of the game changed my thinking. Sure, even one of those penalties would have been nice, and the handy conversion, but it was all good. And then Dagg hungused. And the game changed into 1915-esque trench warfare.
And like others, i was behind the goals, which was the absolute worst. All i could see was all the ball the French had, and us making tackle after tackle after tackle. It wasn't until i watched the replay it showed the French weren't making a yard, we just bashed them and bashed them and bashed them. I, unlike others, wasn't devo when Beaver came on, my Varsity and Chiefs bias meant that i had faith in the great man. Faith he repaid, with interest. What a fucking hero.
The look of relief on the faces of everyone in the stadium (including the dudes on the field) showed how much we nearly fucked that up.
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@dogmeat said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
Were the eastern terraces the TSF stand coz that's where I had my meltdown too.
i was in the 2nd row right where Woody scored. So at ground level everything looked even worse!!
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@victor-meldrew said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
Believe it or not, I was a bit worried when we were 29-13 up at 1/2 time against France in the 2015 quarter finals. The horrible, grey, sweaty feeling I experienced at the Millennium Stadium in 2007 started to seep back in
Funnily enough, I knew we were going to win the World Cup when Carter dropped a goal against the Boks a week later.
I felt the same a bit during that game, I didn't actually feel like we were dominating as much as the scorecard suggested and thought they'd come back. But they'd mentally clocked out and the 2nd half was an unopposed training run.
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@snowy that 2nd half at Twickers was probably the single most least enjoyable period of rugby I have seen, and being there with a smarmy Aussie cnut in front of me taking the piss made it so much worse...and me trying to impress my new boss, I wasnt able to punch the dirty Aussie cnut
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@taniwharugby said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
@snowy that 2nd half at Twickers was probably the single most least enjoyable period of rugby I have seen, and being there with a smarmy Aussie cnut in front of me taking the piss made it so much worse...and me trying to impress my new boss, I wasnt able to punch the dirty Aussie cnut
A very similar experience. 5 Boer bores behind us who were stilled pissed in both senses of the word after their team had lost the day before to that wobbly (pun intended) Larkham drop goal. I bought a ticket outside the ground from a really nice French dude (not usually in the same sentence I know!). He sold me tickets for face value and we sat next to him. When France started their comeback he turned around and told the Saffas to STFU as we had women with us (some pretty crude stuff from them). I actually smiled in spite of the disaster unraveling in front of me and thought that a fight actually might make me feel better.
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@snowy ha an Aussie I was sitting next to threatened the cnuty Aussie in front of us..
Frenchies we saw on the train on the way home were all very good about it...was a nother nationality not yet mentioned who neeeded to be twatted.
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@taniwharugby said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
was a nother nationality not yet mentioned who neeeded to be twatted.
Some English rugby fans are ignorant pricks.
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@taniwharugby said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
@snowy ha an Aussie I was sitting next to threatened the cnuty Aussie in front of us..
Frenchies we saw on the train on the way home were all very good about it...was a nother nationality not yet mentioned who neeeded to be twatted.
The French have always been good about those wins. They've almost been apologetic and embarrassed about it.
I did however meet one pissed up French dude a few weeks after the 2011 final. He was banging on about conspiracy theories regarding the ref and some bullshit about Parra's injury (McCaw should have been sent off apparently). Told him to shut tfu and rather rudely reminded him of his country's appalling record in WW2.
But other than him most French fans are brilliant.
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1991 semi-final vs Australia. I knew we would lose that one because we hadn't learned a single lesson from our previous games against them (indeed, doubled down on a few things that were poor, especially selections).
1995 final in the RWC, but only because we were sick. We still almost made it however.
I don't think I've ever been that certain we would lose since then. I have put money against the ABs a couple of times, but only when the odds were outrageously high against the other side.
I did know we would lose at Rustenburg 2006 ten minutes into the game though. We'd a poor track record there at the time, and it was apparent from the start that we were using the fixture to try things out rather than sticking with our usual game. I understand why Henry was doing it, but it didn't give us the best option to win. The 22 drop-outs were beyond embarrassing.
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@jk said in Picking the ABs to lose ...:
When we played Ireland in the US.
I'm surprised more haven't said this test. As mentioned the loss of our 3 best locks had me concerned.
I was never worried about the 2011 RWC final. Maybe I had a different view from the lower ASB stand.
Sure it was very tense but being at the game you could tell the French weren't going to score another "try from the end of the world" so the ABs just had to trust their D and be disciplined. A lot of my friends were very nervous watching on TV, including one who stopped watching at HT.
