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Labour were always likely to get a second term. The lack of a coalition partner is still their seemingly insurmountable weakness. Their odds improved when National appointed Bridges and have pretty much become a lock in since lockdown.
Given Nats are going to start losing talent and Labour should get some more - the question for me is more about can they recover for 2023. If I was the Leader I'd be hoping for a credible response this time so I could say look at the improvement i made in only a few short months - give me another crack. Then I'd been working on electoral law reform with all the minor parties to get the 5% threshold lowered, with a view to doing a deal with the Monster Raving Looney Party or whoever.
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@Tim said in NZ Politics:
It will be interesting to see if there's a lockdown mk 2 in 2021. That would radically change the electoral situation.
not in 2021 ... too late by then. Later this year, though.
God I hope not. We need to get out of this fast, and get our economy going again. A rising tide and all that...
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TBH, I am not sure this is the right time for a leadership challenge, as @Crucial says, barring somethign catastrophic, Labour will win, meaning whoever is in the seat for National will be under pressure then as well, may as well leave Bridges at the helm, cos his days are numbered anyway.
I'd be more inclined to hold off a challenge until post election, that way Bridges could also step aside gracefully instead of holding onto what is currently a sinking ship.
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
TBH, I am not sure this is the right time for a leadership challenge, as @Crucial says, barring somethign catastrophic, Labour will win, meaning whoever is in the seat for National will be under pressure then as well, may as well leave Bridges at the helm, cos his days are numbered anyway.
I'd be more inclined to hold off a challenge until post election, that way Bridges could also step aside gracefully instead of holding onto what is currently a sinking ship.
Worked for Cindy. If National stay this low it’s no risk for the new leader really, can blame Bridges.
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@Kirwan it did, not sure it would again though.
You may be right in terms of deflecting onto Simon.
If she hadnt tied herself to Bridges, I think Bennet would have been one of those having a crack at the top job too, but I think she, like Collins is too polarising.
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@Godder said in NZ Politics:
@Kirwan A difference was that Little saw similar results to these, knew he wasn't the answer, and arranged the transition himself (he resigned and nominated Ardern for leader). Bridges has had to be pushed, which always looks worse.
If it is done then it is relatively bloodless. Contrast what happened with Cunliffe, that was very harmful
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
If it is done then it is relatively bloodless. Contrast what happened with Cunliffe, that was very harmful
It is done - and good luck to Muller. Mammoth task.
Shearer and Bridges felt a bit similar - in other circumstances, they may well have had a real crack at it, but just never got a connection to the electorate. Bridges really struggled with the blink test, just didn't engage the casual voter, and absolutely killed by crises happening that played to Jacinda's empathy and communication strengths.
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@Donsteppa said in NZ Politics:
I’m not sure that Muller can turn things around for National by September. However, I’ve thought for a while that he was the best National MP in Tauranga by far.
Doesn't come across well (so far). Bit of a chancer. May be competent but lacks a connection with people.
However, Bridges got mullered, so the caucus must see something in him.
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@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
@Donsteppa said in NZ Politics:
I’m not sure that Muller can turn things around for National by September. However, I’ve thought for a while that he was the best National MP in Tauranga by far.
Doesn't come across well (so far). Bit of a chancer. May be competent but lacks a connection with people.
However, Bridges got mullered, so the caucus must see something in him.
Bridges was hopeless. almost embarrassingly bad
Muller is impressive. And the contrast with Bridges is massive
Jacinda will have a challenge now as opposed to no concerns before. And a young female as a deputy. Could be a formidable team -
@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
@Donsteppa said in NZ Politics:
I’m not sure that Muller can turn things around for National by September. However, I’ve thought for a while that he was the best National MP in Tauranga by far.
Doesn't come across well (so far). Bit of a chancer. May be competent but lacks a connection with people.
My experience so far is that he connects well in person. I suspect their electoral chances might have been better with Nikki in charge and Todd as deputy, but I think either way is stronger than the Simon and Paula team.
I was surprised at how low Simon ranked Todd in his original caucus, so perhaps this has been brewing prior to Simon taking charge.
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@Winger said in NZ Politics:
@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
@Donsteppa said in NZ Politics:
I’m not sure that Muller can turn things around for National by September. However, I’ve thought for a while that he was the best National MP in Tauranga by far.
Doesn't come across well (so far). Bit of a chancer. May be competent but lacks a connection with people.
However, Bridges got mullered, so the caucus must see something in him.
Bridges was hopeless. almost embarrassingly bad
Muller is impressive. And the contrast with Bridges is massive
Jacinda will have a challenge now as opposed to no concerns before. And a young female as a deputy. Could be a formidable teamNo denying that Bridges was useless but I'd love to hear your reasoning behind 'Muller is impressive'.
Are you just going off first appearances or do you have some background that we aren't aware off?
I'm only asking because most of us know SFA about the guy.
Isn't he famous for upsetting farmers by helping push through the Zero Carbon Bill?
We know that he is apparently a Boomer.
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@Tim I heard this today. I have a co-worker from a Canterbury farming family. He's pro-National and his father is a national party member. He said it's a poison chalice with juggernaut Ardern to go up against and that his dad thinks Todd Mcleay MP for Rotorua was a potential leader in waiting.
I know nothing about anything in NZ politics so please feel free to enlighten me
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@raznomore said in NZ Politics:
@Tim I heard this today. I have a co-worker from a Canterbury farming family. He's pro-National and his father is a national party member. He said it's a poison chalice with juggernaut Ardern to go up against and that his dad thinks Todd Mcleay MP for Rotorua was a potential leader in waiting.
I know nothing about anything in NZ politics so please feel to enlighten me
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