Coronavirus - Overall
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@canefan said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120275105/what-does-coronavirus-feel-like
Thought that was a good article with the sort of info that we should have got more of earlier.
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@Virgil said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@Crazy-Horse said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Went to the supermarket today for our usual shop. It was chaotic, people everywhere. I have never seen a supermarket so busy.
Where was that?
Brisbane's north.
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I know you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere, but people arriving from overseas today and tonight would surely be equally at risk and as such should self-isolate too?
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@Mokey said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@Virgil Yup. And the trouble with self isolation, is that you just KNOW there will be twats who don't do it. (I don't understand the toilet paper thing at all. It's a respiratory virus you dumbarses, you won't be shitting like a racehorse.)
The thing is even if 10% don't do it but 90% do, that should make a big difference with slowing the rate of transmission.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
I know you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere, but people arriving from overseas today and tonight would surely be equally at risk and as such should self-isolate too?
Exactly!!
It’s like they think they have discovered some kind of loop hole -
@Virgil possibly we can run a higher degree of checking arrivals during that window? Then from 1am onward shift to following up on self isolation. I think a few object lessons plus peer pressure will limit it to the muppets who are blase or ignorant about it.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
I'm interested to know how Germany have such few deaths given the number of cases? Healthy population, good healthcare?
Their hospitals are cleaned by Germans and therefore incredibly clean. They also have lots and lots of respirators in their hospitals.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Fuck me, virus panic has kicked in now in the UK.
Today is probably my last day in the city for a while - I've been at home / work sporadically over the last couple of week and I can work at about 95% whilst at home.
Went to supermarket yesterday - the queue's were insane. No toilet paper, pasta, to be seen. Shopping trolleys loaded everywhere as people stock up ready for the apocalypse. Just popped out to get lunch, I would estimate that it's about 20% as busy as usual - if not lower. My train in this morning was about the same ... I would guess tho as it'a an early one (6am ish), it had additional peak hour commuters on it avoiding the congested ones.
Football all suspended now, only a matter of time before London marathon gets killed as well.
Some North London supermarkets this weekend resemble scenes from dystopian novels, proper J G Ballard stuff.
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@Paekakboyz said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@Virgil possibly we can run a higher degree of checking arrivals during that window? Then from 1am onward shift to following up on self isolation. I think a few object lessons plus peer pressure will limit it to the muppets who are blase or ignorant about it.
Likely working in with the arrival schedule and the number of airport staff working including MoH to perform tests. At Auckland there are a number of flight arrivals between 10 pm and 1 am. Then there is a lull until ~ 5 am.
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@raznomore said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
I went into the madness yesterday and this morning.
Yesterday was surreal. The local mall was dead. All the shops were open but no one really shopping. The supermarket on the other hand. What a shit show. We managed to get our usual shop in with a few extra provisions. One of the things that amazes me is what some people think they will need.
white and jasmine rice has sold out. But tons of basmati and brown rice still left. Rice is rice ffs.
Instant pancakes sold out. But flour still in abundance. Lots of instant products missing. But the stuff that will yield more meals still sitting there.
The worst thing I saw was and Asian man coughing without covering his mouth in the grocers. I don’t care that he was Asian. That’s not why I mentioned his ethnicity. I said it because the bogan chick that told him to “fuck off back off to China” thought it was important. He was a fucken ignorant disgusting c@nt but who coughed hard 3 times without covering his mouth. Fruit and vege all around him. But his being Asian made him more of a target for what will no doubt become known as Coracism.
Today was slightly less strained than yesterday. People were in cafes doing Sunday as they always do. So I’m hopeful we aren’t descending into a mad max scenario. Where TP is the new guzzolene.
In any case I’m optimistic that the worst we will see is a 1-2 week shut down. It’ll send some small businesses broke and that’s a bloody shame. It could be worse. Who really knows.
I have been thinking about the virus itself all wrong though. I haven’t really been worried about getting sick or my wife n kids getting sick. We are all very healthy and active people. Yesterday a conversation with my dad made me rethink this. He’s really shiting himself. He’ll probably be fine if infected. 62 but looks 50. Strong as an Ox and still very active. He’s terrified by this thing though. I hadn’t really given much concern to the elderly mortality. My concern is always my kids and wife. But speaking with dad and hearing my wife speak to her 80yo widower mum. Sitting alone in a house in Upper Hutt with no support system as we all live abroad. I’m a bit ashamed I’ve not taken this more seriously. I’ve been nonchalantly saying over water cooler talk “oh it’s only the elderly and people who are already sick”. Like their lives mean less than mine.
I’ve been bemused by the potential for a lockdown and such. But I’m a little disgusted with myself for being so flippant about a situation that has such a high mortality rate. That Italian obits tweet is just shocking. All elderly people in those photos. All that knowledge, teachings, experience is gone for many families.
If a lockdown means that I get a few more years of horrible shortbread for Xmas from my mother in law, hopefully another 20 odd years of beers with the old man and another 20 plus years of kiwi care packages from my mum. Then so be it. Lock my ass up.
That Italian obits Tweet hits home too. That is generations worth for some families of knowledge, teachings, stories and more all wiped out in an instant.
Great post mate
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Anyone got a scoop on what things will look like after the 16 days compulsory self isolation for arrivals?
I need to get from Melbourne to Bangkok on April 2, returning April 17.
Am trying to guess what airport arrival will look like in 4 weeks time and I wonder if a corona medical test will act like a visa. Screened ( or turn up) at the departure airport with a yes/no certificate.
Any inside info for part 2 of the big plan?
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The mortality rate among the elderly overseas has been a nagging and confronting thought in my mind when visiting my Mum in her rest home. I don’t like to think of it, but when I look around the thought keeps occurring to me of how full on the nurses at the rest home will have it if/when the virus arrives. Not good at all.
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So it seems we have decided to ditch Japan and head for NZ. Will ride out the 14 days iso in Queenstown before heading to PN to see the old lady. From the Gov website, we can still hike and exercise and stuff, so Qtown seems a better option.
I don't even want to think about the lost funds on Japan 😩 - but of course there are plenty of folk hit way harder than us by this thing so I have limited sympathy for myself!
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@Siam said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Anyone got a scoop on what things will look like after the 16 days compulsory self isolation for arrivals?
I need to get from Melbourne to Bangkok on April 2, returning April 17.
Am trying to guess what airport arrival will look like in 4 weeks time and I wonder if a corona medical test will act like a visa. Screened ( or turn up) at the departure airport with a yes/no certificate.
Any inside info for part 2 of the big plan?
I'm not even sure they know mate. They are probably hoping that other nations will have got their houses in order. But I wouldn't bet on it
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@Chris-B said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
This popped up on my FB feed - written by a NZer living in Chengdu, China.
Details of the day-to-day lockdown are interesting.
That is an excellent article. For those who missed clicking the link there is lots of good stuff there, I took it upon myself to post it up in full. The bit about masks was quite informative. Shame you can't get them for love or money at the moment.
Pandemic – that terrible word indicating that the coronavirus has now spanned the globe and is infecting the entire planet – is enough to make strong men and women tremble and drive people to fill the house with water and toilet paper.
I am living through the crisis in China – so far 8 weeks of effective ‘house arrest’ – and still counting because we are still not allowed to dance down the street quite yet unrestrained impulsiveness.
We are not allowed visitors. We get our temperatures checked coming and going from the apartment complex – if your temperature is higher than 37C (99F) then you are denied entry to your home and have to front up to one of the 4 coronavirus hospitals in Chengdu for testing.
You can only return to work if all staff have a health certificate stating they are clear of the virus and you have enough health supplies – 2 masks per person per day, hand sanitizer, temperature checking guns (point and read), gloves and a register of every single coming and going.
All bars and restaurants closed except for delivery – delivery drivers get tested every time they set off and the App shows their temperature. Orders left at the gate.
Only food supply shops have been open for the past 7 weeks but other shops starting to open in the 8th week.
So, what have we learned:
Corona
Yes, it is a nasty virus with a 2% grim reaping statistic, and it has the annoying thing that you can have it and not know it (47% of people are asymptomatic or have mild cases) and that makes it easy to spread.But in China only 0.0072 % of the population was infected and the virus has killed 2% of those.
The chances of you getting and then dying from this is not a huge risk unless the solution to the spread (i.e. containment and tracking) is not implemented strictly.
Don’t panic. Unless you are over 80 years old and have pre-existing health conditions then the chances of this being the final stop are minimal. The younger you are the better. So, protect the older members of the family first.
Containment
Containment is the key to stopping this – China delayed for one week in getting the containment and the result (according the latest modeling statistics) was 66% more cases than if they had started one week earlier.So, start containment as early as possible to ‘flatten the curve’ – spread the cases over a longer period of time.
Containment means your cooperation – it means you staying at home and being a good boy/girl and not thinking you can be the exception.
Do your bit for the people who have family who might have a higher risk than you personally – every person who does fall to this virus is someone’s loved one.
Masks – the Hairy Biker in the Room
Lots of moaning, Facebook Warriors, Twittering Tweeters and’ Legends in Their Own Minds’ are telling you masks aren’t effective. And yes, I have read what the CDC said about this.Rubbish.
The stats out of China are that you have 5 times LESS chance of contracting the virus if you (and everyone else) wears a mask.
The masks don’t stop the virus particles – but they do stop the droplets – which contain the virus and if you are wearing a mask then droplets wont get into your nose but more importantly, they stop droplets coming from an infected nose getting across to you.
And they stop you touching your face – that’d have to be good if your fingers happen to have the virus particles on them.
And if you don’t know you have it and don’t wear a mask then you are a spreader and other people will be accepters and then the numbers go up and up and up.
In China go out without a mask one two things will happen – you will be heavily criticised, and I mean heavily to the point of being cursed and, in a few cases beaten, by the people, and you will get fined by the police.
Wear a mask because the actual figures (which you can call facts) support wearing a mask.
Gloves
Get some latex/vinyl gloves and don’t go out without them – and take them off and throw them away as soon as you walk back in the door – if you have been out (wearing a mask, of course)Single most common way of transmission – touching your face with infected fingers.
Gloves/Sanitizer/Soap – that’ll make a big difference.
The Flu
Whatever you read about how many people the flu kills forget it.This is way worse than the flu and not for the obvious reason.
Here are the facts.
Corona is 20 times more deadly than the flu 0.1% of infected people die from the flu – 2% die from corona – do the math – 20 times more deadly.
Infectiousness – the flu infects between 5% – a good year and 20% – a very bad year – of a population.
Corona is similarly infectious as the flu – so if corona was allowed completely free run in the United States for example there could be as many as 65 million cases and 1 million deaths.
BUT – and this is the big but, which is making governments tremble – it is not just these figures – it is these figures:
14% of corona patients need hospital care – which defines as being on oxygen for 2-3 weeks and 5% need critical/intensive care.
That’s a total of 20%
10% of the population (US here – insert your own countries population) with corona = 32.7 million
20% hospitalized = 6.54 million hospitalizations.
Unless you can build hospitals in 8 days (or 16 new hospitals in 3 weeks) then you are going to have a lot of people without care.
This is the nuclear bomb corona carries in its pocket – HEALTH SYSTEM CAPACITY
2 Months Goes like a Slippery Eel through a Weir. Fast
If you are required to stay at home for 8 weeks it goes fast and if you feel that living in your home, with plenty to eat and drink, movies to watch, books to read, music to listen to is a hassle then you need a new life and a new home.It is one of the most rewarding experiences if you approach it right – personally I’ve written material for two books, designed a whole new Virtual Reality Headset, added 15 new sales agents to our network, and managed more work than what I could have managed from the office.
It’s a time for reflection, thought, introspection, renewal and reward. You will get to know your loved ones all over again and whether that leads to a deeper relationship or divorce is up to you – but it’s a byproduct of ‘house arrest’
This glass is half full.
Courage and Calm
You want to know what it is like having 1.4 billion people under lock down?Calm and courage – you will never experience the wonderful strength of the Chinese people until you see them deal with something like this.
No moaning. No protesting. No pushing and shoving at the market of the supermarket. What I have seen has been acceptance, determination and grit.
Its WW2 and the Pearl Harbour/Blitz type of spirit. We have a problem, lets solve it.
People are noticeably friendlier, unified and happier. I am proud to be a member of this society.
Don’t Worry
Worried about your business?Find new ways to do what you have done in the past – use the time to reassess your entire strategy, your business plans and what you really want to do.
It’ll be tough – no doubt about that – but WW2 was tough – 80 million people died. 9/11 was tough. 2008 was tough.
But you are still here.
Times of trouble are times of change – embrace it or let it destroy you – it’s your choice.
This will impact the entire globe – it will expose weaknesses and strengths in all sorts of places – starting with governments.
We had 4 calls from government bodies during this crisis – offering us (for our business) – interest free loans, payroll subsidies (equivalent to 1 months’ salary for every staff member), bank delaying payments by two months (China has ordered the banks to forego profits in 2020) and new banking finance support available. And we are NOT a huge company at all.
Invest in courier drivers, home hair clippers and any other home equipment suppliers – gym equipment, massage, health and beauty – sales of these have rocketed here in China.
Finally, this is a message of hope and not of despair – be safe by being sensible and don’t panic – this will pass.
It may be the biggest thing that Boomer/Gen X Y and Millennials have faced (or it may not) but it can be beaten – China has beaten this in 2 months after a rocky start.
And personally, if there is anything, I can do to help you, let me know –I’m busting with new ideas and ways to make your business grow even in ‘Interesting Times’
Be safe and be sensible.
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12 or 14 days compulsory self isolation is a long time out of the workforce for those that don't actually have the virus.
I'm hopeful, in the near future, an arriving passenger has a facility to get or buy a
test to confirm or deny presence of the virus and forego the compulsory self isolation.
Even a swab with results emailed 4 days later would be preferable, and more accurate than 12 days out of the workforce.
I think this close the border thing is gonna hurt a lot more than anticipated. But I acknowledge it's necessary when we all realised that our health services wouldn't cope.
12 days when you're not actually infected?? Hope we can do better than that.